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[1]LI Hengzhe,LI Chao,CHEN Zhaoya,et al.Land Ecosystem Service Values and Their Grey Forecast Based on Partition Surrounding Beijing and Tianjin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(01):221-227.

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Land Ecosystem Service Values and Their Grey Forecast Based on Partition Surrounding Beijing and Tianjin

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 23 Number of periods: 2016 01 Page number: 221-227 Column: Public date: 2016-02-28

Title:: Land Ecosystem Service Values and Their Grey Forecast Based on Partition Surrounding Beijing and Tianjin

Author(s):: LI Hengzhe¹, LI Chao³, CHEN Zhaoya¹, GUO Niandong¹, XU Hao^1,2, WANG Shutao²; 1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding, Hebei 071000, China;
2. College of Land and Resources, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding, Hebei 071000, China;
3. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China

Keywords:: ecosystem service value; areas surrounding Beijing and Tianjin; grey forecast

CLC:: F301;F062

DOI:: -

Abstract:: In order to promote the coordinated development and ecological construction around Beijing and Tianjin areas, based on the land use change data of the area with 73 counties or cities of surrounding Beijing and Tianjin from 1996 to 2011, and the partition idea of DUAN Ruijuan and JIANG Jing, we divided this area into four regions. By the evaluation of ecosystem service values, calculation of the value of land ecosystem service from 1996 to 2011 in the district, we used the sensitivity parameter to verify the reliability of the calculated ecosystem services value. The dynamic degree model of ecosystem services value was introduced to analyze the temporal variation features of different types of land use areas, and the ecosystem services values in 2018, 2022 were predicted. The results are shown as follows. During 1996 and 2011, the total value decreased by about 488 million yuan in the area surrounding Beijing and Tianjin. The value of far and near mountain areas showed the increasing trend, and the value of far and near plain areas showed the decreasing trend. Forecast of the ecosystem service values of cultivated land, water and unused land surrounding Beijing and Tianjin will decrease during the period from 2018 to 2022, and the ecosystem service values of forest land, garden land, and grass will increase. The total value will be reduced to 62 475 million yuan and 62 230 million yuan, respectively. The value of far and near mountain areas will continue to increase, and the value of far and near plain areas will continue to decrease.

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