[1]GUO Yong-jie,MI Wen-bao,ZHAO Ying,et al.Evaluation and Prediction on Ecological Security of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(02):205-210.
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Evaluation and Prediction on Ecological Security of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
21
Number of periods:
2014 02
Page number:
205-210
Column:
Public date:
2014-04-28
- Title:
- Evaluation and Prediction on Ecological Security of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
- CLC:
- X171.1
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- On the basis of PSR model, spatiotemporal variation trends of Ningxia regional ecological security were discussed in this paper and their relevant future development were predicted. In order to overcome the shortcomings of subjective weight definition, entropy method was used to determine the weight of each index, and then ecological security degree of each municipality was calculated by means of synthetically index method. Furthermore, ecological security situations of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in different years were analyzed contrastively based on ArcGIS 10.0 platform, finally GM(1,1) model was used to make prediction for future development about ecological security degree of each municipality. The research results showed as followings. The regional ecological security status quo of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region was not optimistic. From 2005 to 2011, the ecological security degree of Yinchuan showed a decline from 0.278 to 0.201, and it would decrease continuously according to the prediction; while ecological security degree of Guyuan showed a rising trend from 0.295 1 to 0.324 5, and it will go up continuously according to the prediction; moreover, ecological security degree of Shizuishan, Wuzhong, Zhongwei City were relatively low, and they had inconspicuous variation according to the GM(1,1) model.
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1900-01-01