[1]LI Yu-ping,ZHU Chen,ZHU Jin-liang,et al.Research for City Eecological Footprint Calculation and Prediction of Xingtai City of Resource Type[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(04):248-252.
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Research for City Eecological Footprint Calculation and Prediction of Xingtai City of Resource Type
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
20
Number of periods:
2013 04
Page number:
248-252
Column:
Public date:
2013-08-28
- Title:
- Research for City Eecological Footprint Calculation and Prediction of Xingtai City of Resource Type
- CLC:
- F301.2
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- The method of ecological footprint and the grey prediction model were applied to analyze the change of ecological footprint during 2003 and 2011 trend of resources-based cities-Xingtai city, and the ecological footprint of the future forecast. The results indicated the per capita ecological footprint of Xingtai city ranged from 1.866 hm2 per capital to 2.133 hm2 per capital between 2003 and 2011, increasing 0.267 hm2 per capital. The ecological carrying capacity varied from 0.376 5 hm2 per capital to 0.356 8 hm2 per capital, decreasing by 0.019 7 hm2 per capital and resulting in the ecological deficit. Negative 1.951 2 hm2 per capital ecological deficit changed into negative 1.489 5 hm2 per capital from 2003 to 2005, the extreme value presented, and then it returned to minus 1.776 2 hm2 per capital people in 2011, its variation shaped looked like the "V", indicating that the development of Xingtai was in unsustainable state. The predictive results show that: from 2012 to 2025 in Xingtai City, the ecological deficit will increase year by year, from 1.746 6 hm2 per capital in 2012 to 1.685 6 hm2 per capital in 2025. The future resource consumption of Xingtai city will greatly exceed the ecological carrying capacity, and is unsustainable. Xingtai city must optimize the energy structure, increase the intensity of land development and consolidation, take a series of effective measures for the purpose of improving the sustainable social and economic level.
- References:
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