三峡库区生态系统服务价值与经济重心演变的耦合分析
阳 华1, 王兆林2, 孙思睿1, 鄂施璇2, 王 娜3

(1.重庆工商大学 长江上游经济研究中心, 重庆 400067; 2.重庆工商大学 公共管理学院, 重庆 400067; 3.中国人民大学 应用经济学院, 北京 100872)

三峡库区; 生态系统服务价值; 重心演变; 耦合

Coupling Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value and Economic Gravity Evolution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area
YANG Hua1, WANG Zhaolin2, SUN Sirui1, E Shixuan2, WANG Na3

(1.Upper Yangtze River Economic Research Center, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, 400067, China; 2.School of Public Management, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, 400067, China; 3.School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)

Three Gorges Reservoir area; ecosystem service value; evolution of the center of gravity; coupling

备注

为了研究三峡库区生态系统与经济的相互驱动关系,运用重心空间耦合法、中间物质转化法等方法,计算了2005年、2010年和2015年三峡库区生态服务价值与GDP增长率、城镇化率、第二产业增加值以及人均财政预算支出重心位置,并讨论了其动态耦合关系。结果表明:2005—2010年,供给、文化服务价值重心向西南偏移,调节服务价值重心向西北偏移,支持服务价值重心向东南偏移,总生态服务价值向东北偏移。除文化服务价值外,其余服务价值重心偏移距离比较小。2010—2015年,各类服务价值重心均向东北偏移。除文化服务价值外,其余服务价值重心偏移距离比较大; 研究期内,地区GDP增长率重心偏移方向发生变化,其余经济重心偏移方向不变。地区GDP增长率、城镇化率重心的偏移距离先增后减,人均预算财政支出重心偏移距离先减后增,第二产业增加值重心的偏移距离几乎不变; 地区GDP增长率重心与总生态服务价值重心的重叠性先增强后减弱,其余经济变量与总生态服务价值重叠性逐年增强。主要原因是林地、水域以及建设用地面积的变化,此时生态环境与经济耦合性较弱,人类活动对于环境破环程度更高; 到了后期,人口集中、产业集聚也成为影响因素,耦合性增强。
To expplore the coordinated development of ecology and economy in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in the new era, based on relevant theories such as the change of center of gravity and the method of intermediate material conversion, we calculated the value of various ecological services and the position of center of gravity of GDP growth rate, urbanization rate, secondary industry added value and per capita fiscal budget expenditure in the Three Gorges reservoir area by each prefecture city in 2005, 2010 and 2015. The dynamic changes and coupling relationships of the position of center of gravity were discussed. The results show that in the early five years, the center of supply and cultural service value were shifted to the southwest, the adjustment service value center was shifted to the northwest, the support service value center was shifted to the southeast, and the total ecological service value was shifted to the northeast; except for cultural service value, the offset distance of other service value center was relatively small; in the last five years, the five service value centers had been shifted to the northeast; except for the value of cultural services, the offset distance of other service value center was relatively large; during the study period, the offset direction of the center of gravity of the regional GDP growth rate were changed, and that of center of gravity of the rest of the socio-economic remained unchanged; the offset distance of the center of gravity of regional GDP growth rate and urbanization rate increased first and then decreased, that of per capita budget fiscal expenditure first decreased and then increased, and that of the added value of the secondary industry was almost unchanged; the overlap between the center of gravity of regional GDP growth rate and the total ecological service value first increased and then weakened, and the overlap between that of the remaining economic variables and the total ecological service value had increased year by year. The analysis showed that changes in forest area, water area, and construction land area are the main reasons for the changes in the value of ecological services in the early stage. At that time, the coupling between ecological environment and economy was weak, and human activities had the inverse effect on the environment; in the later stage, population concentration and industrial agglomeration were also influencing factors, and coupling was enhanced.