1955-2017年安康市极端气候事件时序变化特征
肖薇薇1,2,3,安 彬1,2,3,贾 丹1

(1.安康学院 旅游与资源环境学院,陕西 安康 725000; 2.安康市汉江水资源保护与利用工程技术研究中心,陕西 安康 725000; 3.陕南生态经济研究中心,陕西 安康 725000)

极端气温; 极端降水; 线性趋势; 突变检验; 安康市

Temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Weather Events in Ankang from 1955 to 2017
XIAO Weiwei1,2,3,AN Bin1,2,3,JIA Dan1

(1.College of Tourism & Environment,Ankang University,Ankang,Shaanxi 725000,China; 2.Engineering Technology Center for Water Resource Protection and Utilization of Hanjiang River,Ankang,Shaanxi 725000,China; 3.South Shaanxi Ecological and Economic Research Center,Ankang,Shaanxi 725000,China)

temperature; precipitation; trend; test; Ankang City

备注

安康市地处秦巴腹地,是环境变化的敏感区和生态脆弱区,研究其极端气候特征变化可为当地防灾减灾提供参考。基于安康市1955—2017年逐日气象实测数据,利用RClimDex软件计算了11个极端气温指数和8个极端降水指数,运用线性拟合、Mann-Kendall法分析了安康市极端气温和极端降水事件变化趋势和突变特征。结果表明:(1)1955—2017年安康市极端暖事件呈显著增加趋势,冷事件呈显著减少趋势。其中极端最低气温、夏日日数、热夜日数、暖日日数、暖夜日数、作物生长期均分别以0.295℃/10 a,1.754 d/10 a,1.355 d/10 a,0.32 d/10 a,1.118 d/10 a和4.64 d/10 a的速率显著增加(p<0.05); 霜冻日数、冷日日数和冷夜日数分别以-3.197 d/10 a,-0.961 d/10 a和-1.885 d/10 a的趋势显著减少(p<0.05);(2)1955—2017年安康市极端降水呈增长趋势,其中1日最大降水量、中雨日数、强降水量、年降水量和连续干旱日分别以0.885mm/10 a,0.079 d/10 a,11.617 mm/10 a,11.05 mm/10 a和1.495 d/10 a的速率上升,而大雨日数以0.438 d/10 a的速率显著上升(p<0.05); 5日最大降水量、连续湿润日数以-1.476 mm/10 a和-0.001 d/10 a的速率下降;(3)安康市各极端气温指数和极端降水指数突变年不一,主要集中在20世纪60至70年代、20世纪90年代至21世纪初。总体来看,近63年安康市气候整体向暖干化趋势发展,尤其以20世纪90年代之后增温最为显著。极端气候的变化会使得该区旱涝灾害、高温灾害、农业病虫害增加,未来相关部门应该提前部署减灾防灾工作,以最大程度降低灾损。
Ankang City is located in the hinterland of Qinba Mountains,which is a sensitive area of environmental change and an ecologically fragile area. It is of great significance to study extreme climate change for local disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on observed daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature and precipitation data during 1955 to 2017 in Ankang City,we calculated 11 extreme temperature indices and 8 extreme precipitation indices by using RClimDex software,and analyzed the temporal variation characteristics of extreme weather events in Ankang City by using linear fitting,Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that:(1)from 1955 to 2017,we found significantly increasing trends for the warm extreme indices and considerably decreasing trends for the cold extreme indices in Ankang City; the extreme minimum temperature,summer days,hot night days,warm days,warm night days,and growing season all significantly increased at a rate of 0.295℃/decade,1.754 d/decade,1.355 d/decade,0.32 d/decade,1.118 d/decade and 4.64 d/decade,respectively; frost days,cold days and cold nights decreased at a rate of -3.197 d/decade,-0.961 d/decade and -1.885 d/decade,respectively;(2)from 1955 to 2017,the extreme precipitation in Ankang showed an increasing trend; the maximum daily precipitation,moderate rain days,heavy precipitation,annual precipitation and continuous dry days increased at a rate of 0.885 mm/decade,0.079 d/decade 11.617 mm/decade,11.05 mm/decade and 1.495 d/decade,respectively,while the rate of heavy rain days increased significantly at a rate of 0.438 d/decade(p<0.05); the 5-days maximum daily precipitation and continuous wet days decreased significantly at the rate of -1.476 mm/decade and -0.001 d/decade,respectively;(3)the extreme temperature and precipitation indices in Ankang City had different abrupt changes,mainly in the 1960s and 1970s,1990s and the early 21st century. In general,the climate of Ankang City had been warming and drying in recent 63 years,especially after 1990s. Extreme climate change will increase drought and flood disasters,high temperature disasters,agricultural diseases and insect pests in this area. In the future,the government should deploy disaster reduction and prevention work in advance to minimize the disaster losses.