河北省1995-2015年水旱灾害生态风险时空变化特征
谢宝妮1,2,3,秦占飞1,3,李 镇1,3,杨会彩1,3

(1.河北地质大学 土地科学与空间规划学院,石家庄 050031; 2.中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所 生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101; 3.河北省水资源可持续利用与开发实验室,石家庄 050031)

地理学; 水旱灾害; 区域生态风险评价; 时空变化; 河北省

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Ecological Risk for Flood and Drought in Hebei Province from 1995 to 2015
XIE Baoni1,2,3,QIN Zhanfei1,3,LI Zhen1,3,YANG Huicai1,3

(1.School of Land Science and Space Planning,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China; 2.Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China; 3.Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Sustained Utilization and Development of Water Resources,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China)

geography; flood and drought disasters; regional ecological risk assessment; spatial and temporal change; Hebei Province

备注

水旱灾害是河北省最严重的农业气象灾害因子,为了探明河北省近20 a水旱灾害生态风险时空转变过程,根据区域生态风险评价理论,基于气温、降雨、土地利用、GDP和人口密度等多源数据,以干旱和洪涝灾害为风险源,以耕地、林地、草地、水域、建设用地和未利用地6种景观类型为风险受体,基于GIS技术对河北省1995—2015年水旱灾害生态风险时空特征进行了分析。结果表明:1995—2015年河北省水旱灾害风险概率总体中等,中等风险以下等级占全域总面积的51.39%～93.30%,较高风险和高风险占全域面积的6.70%～48.61%。河北省近20年水旱灾害生态风险等级的空间异质性非常明显,较低风险以下约占全省面积的57.87%～74.10%,主要位于河北省北部、太行山山地等区域,较高和高风险等级约占全省面积的4.90%～20.08%,主要分布在南部平原地区。从时空变化来看,河北省近20 a水旱灾害生态风险约37.70%面积呈下降趋势,主要分布在冀中南北部、承德市中部及唐山市等地区,以较低风险向低风险转变和中等风险向较低风险转变为主。河北省近20 a水旱灾害生态风险总体风险较低,且呈现降低趋势,该研究可为灾害风险管理及环境管理和决策提供科学依据。
Flood and drought disasters are two of the most serious agro-meteorological disasters in Hebei Province. In order to explore the temporal and spatial transformation process of the ecological risk of floods and droughts in Hebei Province in the past 20 years,we explored the spatial and temporal patterns of the ecological risks of floods and droughts in Hebei Province during 1995—2015 according to the regional ecological risk assessment theory. We estimated the ecological risks using GIS techniques based on multi-source data such as temperature,rainfall,land use,GDP and population density,with the drought and flood disasters as the risk sources and the six landscape types(i. e.,cultivated land,woodland,grassland,water area,construction land,and unused land)as risk receptors. The results showed that there was a moderate overall ecological risk level of flood and drought disasters in Hebei Province during 1995—2015; specifically,the area at moderate or lower ecological risk levels accounted for 51.39%～93.30% of the total area of the study area,and the area at high or very high ecological risk levels accounted for 6.70%～48.61% of the total area of the study area during the study period; there was significant spatial heterogeneity of the ecological risk in the study area during the past two decades; the areas with low ecological risk were primarily located in the northern part and Taihang Mountains of the study area,accounting for 57.87%～74.10% of the total area of the study area,while areas with high and very high ecological risk were mainly located in the southern plain areas of the study area,accounting for 4.90%～20.08% of the total area of the study area; there was remarkable spatial and temporal variation of the ecological risk in the study area during the study period; the ecological risk level showed a declining trend in approximately 37.70% of the study area during the past two decades,these mainly covered northern and central part of the study area,central part of Chengde and Tangshan,where the ecological risk primarily shifted from the low level to the very low level and from the moderate level to the low level; the overall ecological risk of flood and drought disasters in Hebei Province in the past 20 years was relatively low and showed a decreasing trend. All these findings in this study can provide significant scientific basis for decision-making on the disaster risk management and environmental management.