VIC模型在西江流域的水文模拟及其应用
杜婷婷1,郭梦京2,张晋梅3,田世野4

(1.绵阳职业技术学院,四川 绵阳621000; 2.西安理工大学 水利水电学院,西安 710077; 3.江西省水利科学研究院,南昌330029; 4.江西省鄱阳湖流域农业资源与生态重点实验室,南昌 330045)

西江流域; VIC模型; 模型应用; 水文要素; 变化趋势分析

Hydrological Simulation and Application of VIC Model in Xijiang River Basin
DU Tingting1,GUO Mengjing2,ZHANG Jinmei3,TIAN Shiye4

(1.Mianyang Vocational and Technical College,Mianyang,Sichuan 621000,China; 2.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Xi'an University Of Technology,Xi'an 710077,China; 3.Jiangxi Institute of Water Sciences,Nanchang 330029,China; 4.Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330045,China)

Xijiang River Basin; VIC model; model application; hydrological elements; change trend analysis

备注

流域自然水文物理过程的研究对于保障流域水安全具有重要意义,以西江为研究区结合陆面水文模型VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC)对流域自然水循环的水文模拟过程在不同时间尺度上的适用性情况进行了分析,无论是日尺度还是月尺度上,VIC模型在西江流域径流模拟过程中均表现出了良好的适用性,都达到或者超过NS>0.6同时BIAS的绝对值小于0.15的标准要求; 其次对VIC模型进行更深层次应用,从模型输出的众多基于栅格的水文要素中,提取地表径流(R)、地下基流(B)、降水(P)、蒸散发(E)四大要素,并结合 Mann-Kendall 变化趋势检验方法对这四大要素在 1971—2010 年共 40 年内的变化趋势进行分析,得到西江流域的蒸散发存在 37% 以上、降水存在 29%以上、地表径流存在 65% 以上的面积有显著增加趋势,而地下基流在这 40 年内的变化趋势并不显著这一结论。
The study of the natural hydrophysical process of the basin is of great significance to ensure the water safety of the basin. This study used the Xijiang River as the study area and combined the land surface hydrological model VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC)to simulate the hydrological process of the natural water cycle of the basin on different time scales. The results show that the VIC model has good applicabilityfor runoff simulation process on both daily and monthly scales in the Xijiang River Basin,and both reach or exceed NS>0.6 while the absolute value of BIAS is less than 0.15 standard requirements; secondly,a deeper application of the VIC model can extract four elements such as surface runoff(R),underground base flow(B),precipitation(P),evapotranspiration(E)from the many raster-based hydrological elements output by the model; the Mann-Kendall change trend test method can be used to analyze the change trends of these four elements in a total of 40 years from 1971 to 2010. These results show that the evapotranspiration in more than 37% of the Xijiang River Basin,the precipitation in more than 29% of Xijiang River Basin,and the surface runoff in more than 65% of Xijiang River Basin have the significant increase trend,while the change trend of underground base flow in these 40 years is not significant.