内蒙古气温突变及其影响因子间的响应关系
周 莹, 马 龙, 梁珑腾

(内蒙古农业大学 水利与土木建筑工程学院, 呼和浩特 010018)

气温; 突变; 影响因子; 响应关系

Response of Temperature Mutation in Inner Mongolia to Its Influencing Factors
ZHOU Ying1, MA Long1, LIANG Longteng1

(1.College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China)

temperature; abrupt temperature; impact factor; response relationship

备注

气温突变与其影响因子间的响应关系可为气候变化的机制研究提供参考。采用中心聚类、M-K检验等方法,以内蒙古及其周边地区70个气象站点1951—2016年平均气温、最低气温、最高气温及全球尺度下大空间年序列数据等为基础,定性及定量揭示气温突变时空变异性及其影响因子间的响应关系。结果表明:全区中3类气温在1981—1993年发生升温突变,不同分区下的3类气温与各影响因子间的响应关系有所不同,如最低气温与PDO,SR、风速相关性最好,平均气温与PDO,MEI,SR、风速相关性次之,最高气温与PDO,MEI,SR、风速相关性最差。空间上,西部区3类气温与AGG(含CO2),SR,MEI相关性最好,中部区3类气温与相对湿度相关性次之,东部区3类气温与SR相关性最差。20世纪80年代至90年代,随全区AGG(含CO2),AMO,MEI值,大气压,正位相PDO持续上升,SR,风速和相对湿度快速下降,全区气温陆续发生突变,如当AGG持续上升2～9 a且倾向率达到0.234～0.285 W/(m2·10 a),太阳总辐射快速下降[-19.54 MJ/(m2·10 a)],风速持续减小3～28 a且倾向率达到-0.53～-0.24 m/(s·10 a)时,平均气温发生突变,气温突变是多种影响因子共同作用的结果。研究丰富了该方面研究成果,对气候变化研究及防灾减灾等有一定借鉴意义。
The response relationship between the abrupt temperature change and its influencing factors can provide reference for the study of the mechanism of climate change. In this paper, the clustering center and M-K inspection method were used to qualitatively and quantitatively reveal the space-time variability of temperature mutations and the response relationship between impact factors based on large space series data of average temperature, average minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature obtained from 70 weather stationsin Inner Mongolia and its surrounding areas from 1951 to 2016 and global scales. The results show that: the mutation of three kinds of temperature occurred in the period 1981—1993, of the response relations between three kinds of temperature under the different partitions and the influence factors were different, the average minimum temperature had the best correlation with the PDO, SR and wind speed, average temperature had the good correlation with PDO, MEI, SR, and the average maximum temperature had the weak correlation with PDO, MEI, SR and wind speed; spatially, the correlation between AGG(including CO2), SR and MEI was the best in the western region, followed by the correlation between AGG(including CO2), SR and MEI in the central region, and the correlation between the temperature and SR in the eastern region was the worst; in the 1980s to 1990s, along with continuous rise of all the points in the AGG(CO2), AMO, MEI value, atmospheric pressure, positive phase PDO, and SR wind speed and relative humidity, mutation of temperature of each district occurred, when AGG continued to rise for 2～9 years and tendency rate reached to 0.234～0.285 W/(m2·decade), solar total radiation fell fast [-19.54MJ/(m2·decade], wind speed reduced for 3～28 years and tendency rate reached to 0.53～0.24 m/(s·decade). There had been a sudden change in average temperature. The abrupt temperature change was the result of many influencing factors. This study enriches the research results in this field and has certain reference significance for climate change research and disaster prevention and reduction.