为了研究干旱半干旱地区土地利用变化及其ESV时空演变特征与驱动机制,基于2009—2017年研究区土地利用变更数据,采用土地利用动态度、ESV评估模型、SPSS以及空间自相关模型,定量分析了研究区ESV时空演化特征及其驱动因素。结果 表明:(1)草地和耕地是研究区主要的土地利用类型,研究期间城镇村及工矿用地、交通运输用地面积动态度变化较大,其余各土地利用类型动态度变化度较小;(2)ESV总价值逐年下降,由2009年的902.58亿元下降至2017年的890.6亿元,空间上呈现出中部高、南北低的分布格局,各单项服务价值均呈下降的变化趋势,而林地和水域面积的减少,是导致调节服务和支持服务减少的主要原因;(3)ESV时空差异主要驱动因素为人口密度、城市化率以及人均GDP和境内外旅游收入;(4)空间相关性结果表明,ESV变化率与城镇化率、人均GDP以及人口密度呈负相关关系,且高—高和低—高集聚主要集中在南部地区,而高—低集聚主要集中在北部地区。生态用地面积的减少是ESV下降的主要原因,因此,增加和维护生态用地,控制城镇用地扩张是提升研究区ESV的关键。
In order to study land use changes in arid and semi-arid regions and their ecosystem services value(ESV)spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms, based on the land use change data in the study area from 2009 to 2017, the dynamics of land use, ESV evaluation model, SPSS and spatial autocorrelation model were used to quantitatively analyzed the ESV spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors in the study area. The results show that:(1)grassland and cultivated land were the main land use types in the study area; during the study period, the dynamics of urban villages, industrial and mining land, and transportation land had changed greatly, while the dynamic changes of other land use types were small;(2)the total value of ESV had been declining year by year, which decreased from 90.258 billion yuan in 2009 to 89.06 billion yuan in 2017; the spatial distribution pattern of ESV was high in the middle and low in the north and south; the value of each individual service presented the downward trend; the decrease in water area was the main reason for the decrease in adjustment services and support services;(3)the main driving factors of temporal and spatial differences of ESV were population density, urbanization rate, per capita GDP and domestic and foreign tourism income;(4)the spatial correlation results indicated that ESV change rate was negatively correlated with urbanization rate, GDP per capita, and population density; high-high and low-high agglomerations mainly concentrated in the southern region, while high-low agglomeration mainly concentrated in the northern region. The reduction of ecological land area is the main reason for the decline in ESV. Therefore, increasing and maintaining ecological land and controlling the expansion of urban land are the keys to increasing ESV in the study area.
为空间变量属性值平均值; wij为变量x的空间权重。当LISA>0表明该局部空间单元内存在空间集聚; LISA<0则表明该局部空间内存在非相似值的空间集聚。
