近年来,海河流域滨海湿地退化现象严重,为科学合理地对其实施恢复和保护,须探究湿地退化的影响因素,辨识主要退化成因。广泛收集关于海河流域滨海湿地退化评价的实证研究案例,采用集萃法中的Meta-regression模型,对湿地退化因素及其影响程度进行了综合性的对比与分析。结合57个研究案例,提取525个观察值,筛选出自然和人为两类共9种退化影响因素,通过模型拟合得到各因素对湿地退化的影响程度。模型结果显示:海河流域滨海湿地的退化受到人为与自然因素的双重影响。人为因素中,水资源开采(1.512)、水质污染(0.813)、水产养殖(0.593)、围垦与建设占用(0.436)对湿地退化均为正效应,政策法规(-1.202)呈负效应; 自然因素中,降水量(-0.788)与河流径流量(-1.176)对湿地退化呈显著负效应,气温(0.037)与生物多样性损失(0.072)呈较弱的正效应。海河流域滨海湿地的退化影响因素按照影响程度大小排序为:水资源开采>政策法规>河流径流量>水质污染>降水量>水产养殖>围垦与建设占用>生物多样性损失>气温,湿地退化的核心成因在于湿地水资源的补给与存蓄受到了威胁。据此建议,海河流域滨海湿地的恢复与保护应优先解决水源问题,同时应加强相关政策、规划和法律的制定与执行。
In recent years, the coastal wetlands in Haihe River Basin have seriously degraded. In order to restore and protect the wetlands scientifically and reasonably, it is necessary to explore the influencing factors of degradation and identify the main degradation causes. In this study, relevant research cases on the evaluation of coastal wetland degradation in Haihe River Basin were collected extensively, and the meta-regression model was applied to identify the degradation factors and analyze the importance of each factor. 57 research cases were comprehensively analyzed, 525 observations were extracted, and 9 factors of two human and natural types were identified, and the importance of each factor was estimated through model fitting. The modeling results show that the degradation of coastal wetlands in Haihe River Basin is affected by both human and natural factors. Among the human factors, ‘Water Resources Extraction'(1.512), ‘Water Pollution'(0.813), ‘Aquaculture'(0.593), ‘Reclamation and Construction'(0.436)have positive effects on the degradation, while ‘Policies and Regulations'(-1.202)have negative effects, which means it is beneficial to restoration and protection of the wetlands. Among the natural factors, ‘Precipitation'(-0.788)and ‘River runoff'(-1.176)have significantly negative effects, while ‘Air Temperature'(0.037)and ‘Biodiversity Loss'(0.072)have relatively weak positive effects. The analysis shows that the degradation factors can be ranked as follow according to their importance: Water Resources Extraction>Policies and Regulations>River Runoff>Water Pollution>Precipitation>Aquaculture>Reclamation and Construction>Biodiversity Loss >Air Temperature. The core cause of wetland degradation is that the supply and storage of wetland water resources have been under threat. It is implied that the primary task to protect and restore the coastal wetlands in Haihe River Basin is to tackle the issues on water resources development and, at the same time, to strengthen the formulation and enforcement of the policies and regulations relevant to wetland protection and restoration.
