模拟分析不同土地利用情景下生态经济系统协调度(EEH)时空演变特征对福建省持续深入实施生态省战略与实现可持续发展有重要意义。回顾分析福建省2000—2018年EEH变化特征,并运用FLUS模型模拟在一般情景和耕地保护情景下2026年福建省土地利用变化情况,测算生态系统服务价值(ESV)的时空变化,分析未来生态经济系统协调类型的时空演变特征。结果 表明:(1)在2000—2026年福建省的耕地、林地、草地向建设用地大幅转换。(2)2000—2026年福建省生态经济系统协调发展水平逐步提高。(3)2000—2018年福建省ESV呈负增长,整体生态经济系统协调类型处于低度冲突区,局部生态经济系统协调类型呈现多样性,有3个县处于高度冲突区; 2018—2026年不同土地利用情景下的ESV呈小幅增长,整体生态经济系统协调类型转为低度协调区,但不同情景下各个县(区)的生态经济系统协调类型有所不同。因此,福建省在持续深入实施生态省战略的过程中应严控耕地、林地等向建设用地流转,注重生态系统的保护,沿海经济发达地区要进一步提升生态经济系统协调水平。
To implement the eco-province strategy and achieve sustainable development continuously in Fujian Province, it is of great significance to simulate and analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of eco-economic system coordination degree(EEH)under different land use scenarios. The EEH variation of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2018 were reviewed and analyzed, the land-use change situations of Fujian Province in 2026 were simulated under general scenarios and cultivated land protection scenarios by FLUS model, meanwhile, spatial-temporal changes of ecosystem service values were estimated. Moreover, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of future eco-system coordination pattern were predicted. The results demostrated that:(1)cultivated land, forest land, and grassland in Fujian Province had been substantially converted to construction land between 2000 and 2026;(2)from 2000 to 2026, the levels of coordinated development of the eco-economic system in Fujian Province gradually increased;(3)from 2000 to 2018, the ESV of Fujian Province appeared to be in negative growth; the overall eco-economic system coordination type was in a low-level conflict zone, and the local eco-economic system coordination pattern was diverse; there were three counties that were in a high-conflict zone from 2000 to 2018; and then, ESV raised slightly under different land use scenarios, and the overall eco-economic system coordination type changed to a low-level coordination area, but the eco-economic system coordination type differed among counties(districts)under different scenarios from 2018 to 2026. Therefore, Fujian Province should strictly control the conversion of cultivated land and forest land to construction land in the process of continuously implementing the eco-province strategy, pay attention to the protection of the ecosystem, and further improve the coordination level of the eco-economic system in the economically developed coastal areas.
