基于2000—2017年Landsat-NDVI数据,采用线性趋势回归分析、Hurst指数等方法,从时间尺度和空间尺度研究了神东矿区植被覆盖变化特征和影响因素,并对未来变化趋势进行了预测,为西北干旱地区煤炭矿区生态环境治理提供参考。结果 表明:2000—2017年神东矿区植被NDVI整体呈现波动上升趋势,平均增速为0.069/10 a。植被变化趋势分析显示,矿区植被改善的区域占94.78%,植被退化的区域占5.22%。开采区村庄搬迁造成的农田撂荒,以及神东矿区近年来实施的沉陷区治理工程,促进了植被的正向发展; 而露天煤矿开采和尚未完全绿化的排矸场,以及城镇化建设,造成部分区域植被退化。对矿区植被未来变化趋势分析表明,植被未来变化趋势整体上持续改善,这部分区域占矿区总面积的86.66%,持续退化的区域占4.48%,由退化转为改善的区域占0.74%,由改善转为退化的区域占8.12%。整体来看,2000—2017年,矿区植被总体上得到显著改善,未来仍然存在持续改善的趋势。
We studied the characteristics and influencing factors of spatial and temporal change in vegetation coverage in Shendong mining area by linear trend regression analysis and Hurst index, and predicted the future trends of vegetation change, based on Landsat-NDVI data from 2000 to 2017, providing a reference for the environmental management of coal mining areas in the arid regions of northwest China. The results show that vegetation NDVI in Shendong mining area demonstrated an uptrend from 2000 to 2017, with an average growth rate of 0.069/decade. Analysis of the trend of vegetation change showed that 94.78% of the area had improved and 5.22% had degraded. The farmland abandonment caused by the village relocation in the mining area, and the subsidence area management project implemented in recent years promoted a positive development of vegetation, while the open-pit coal mining, untreated dumping sites, and the urbanization caused vegetation degradation. The overall vegetation will improve continuously in the future from the vegetation change trend analysis. The improved area accounted for 86.66% of the total mining area and the continuous degradation area accounted only for 4.48%. Area turned from degradation to improvement accounted for 0.74% but 8.12% converted conversely. In summary, the vegetation had been significantly improved from 2000 to 2017 in Shendong mining area, and there will still be a trend of continuous improvement in the future.
