近30年河南省冬小麦气象年景的时空演变及其与大气环流的联系
田宏伟1,2, 胡程达2, 黄 进1,3, 张方敏1,3

(1.中国气象局 河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室, 郑州 450003; 2.河南省气象科学研究所, 郑州 450003; 3.南京信息工程大学 应用气象学院, 南京 210044)

河南省; 冬小麦; 气象年景; 气候产量指数

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Annual Meteorological Harvest of Winter Wheat and Its Relationship with Atmospheric Circulation in Henan Province in Recent 30 Years
TIAN Hongwei1,2, HU Chengda2, HUANG Jin1,3, ZHANG Fangmin1,3

(1.China Meteorological Administrator/Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Safeguard and Applied Technique, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 2.Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 3.School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

Henan Province; winter wheat; annual meteorological harvest; climate-driven yield index

备注

为了探讨冬小麦气象年景对大气环流异常的响应,依托河南省17个市1988—2017年冬小麦产量数据及15种大尺度大气环流指数(LACI)资料,运用气候产量指数(CDYI)评估了研究区冬小麦气象年景的时空演变格局。结果 表明:(1)基于主成分分析,河南省可以划分为4个呈现不同CDYI演变情形的子区域,分别为中东部、西部、北部、南部,且2000年后各分区CDYI的波动趋于缓和;(2)与其他分区相比,河南省北部地区CDYI的年代际振荡更为强烈,其呈现出增加—减少—增加—减少的波浪型演变;(3)与其他分区相比,河南省中东部地区CDYI与大尺度大气环流指数的线性关系最为显著;(4)诸多环流指数中,12月份厄尔尼诺1+2区的平均海面温度是表征河南省中东部地区冬小麦气象年景的关键前兆性信号,其每增加1%会导致产量减少0.56%。总体而言,依托前期环流指数异常能够较好地实现粮食作物气象年景的提前预判。

The objective of this study is to explore the responses of annual meteorological harvest of winter wheat to atmospheric circulation anomalies. Based on the yield record of winter wheat during 1988—2017 in 17 cites of Henan Province and the data of large-scale atmospheric circulation indices(LACI), the spatiotemporal variability of annual meteorological harvest of winter wheat was evaluated with climate-driven yield index(CDYI), and the main results are as follows.(1)By using principal component analysis, Henan could be divided into four sub-regions with different temporal variations in CDYI such as central-east, west, north, and south areas, and the fluctuation of CDYI in each sub-regions tended to moderate after 2000.(2)Compared with other sub-regions, the interdecadal oscillation of CDYI in north Henan was stronger, showing a increasing-decreasing-increasing-decreasing wavelike evolution.(3)Compared with other sub-regions, the linear relationship between CDYI and LACI in central Henan was the most significant.(4)Among different LACI, the average SST of El Nino1+2 region in December was the key precursor signal for annual meteorological harvest of winter wheat in central-east Hean, and every 1% increase in SST would lead to the yield decrease in 0.56%. In general, the antecedent LACI anomalies can be well used to predict the annual meteorological harvest of grain crops.