1978-2017年河南省气候生产潜力时空演变及趋势分析
张志高1, 耿益新1, 蔡茂堂2, 张秀丽1, 孙梓欣1, 尹纪媛1

(1.安阳师范学院 资源环境与旅游学院, 河南 安阳 455000; 2.中国地质科学院 地质力学研究所, 北京100081)

气候生产潜力; ThornthwaiteMemorial模型; 时空演变; 河南省

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Trend Analysis of Climatic Potential Productivity in Henan Province During 1978-2017
ZHANG Zhigao1, GENG Yixin1, CAI Maotang2, ZHANG Xiuli1, SUN Zixin1, YIN Jiyuan1

(1.School of Resource Environment and Tourism, Anyang Normal University, Anyang, Henan 455000, China; 2.Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

climatic potential productivity; Thornthwaite Memorial model; spatial-temporal evolution; Henan Province

备注

为研究近40年来河南省气候生产潜力变化特征及未来趋势,基于1978—2017年河南省17个气象站点的逐日降水和气温等气象资料,运用Miami模型和Thornthwaite Memorial模型对河南省温度、降水和气候生产潜力进行了测算,运用一元线性回归、相关分析和R/S分析等方法对河南省气候生产潜力时空变化特征及未来趋势进行了分析与评估。结果 表明:(1)1978—2017年河南省多年平均气温为14.62℃,并以0.34℃/10 a的倾向率呈增加趋势,多年平均降水为744.14 mm,以-2.51 mm/10 a的速率减少;(2)近40年来河南省温度和气候生产潜力均呈上升趋势,增长速率分别为28.78 kg/(hm2·10 a)和10.80 kg/(hm2·10 a),降水生产潜力以-2.29 kg/(hm2·10 a)的速率呈减小趋势;(3)在空间分布上,河南省温度生产潜力大体上呈南高北低、东高西低的分布特征,降水和气候生产潜力均呈东南往西北方向递减的变化趋势;(4)相关分析表明,河南省气候生产潜力和降水相关系数达0.956,降水是气候生产潜力的主要限制因子;(5)R/S分析表明,河南省气候生产潜力的Hurst指数平均值为0.59,未来气候生产潜力可能继续保持增长趋势。河南省气候生产潜力受温度的影响较小,受降水的影响相对更大。

In order to explore the characteristics and future trends of climatic potential productivity in Henan Province in recent 40 years, based on daily temperature and precipitation meteorological data of 17 meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1978 to 2017, we calculated the temperature, precipitation and climatic potential productivity of Henan by using the Miami model and Thornthwaite Memorial model, analyzed and estimated the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and future trends of climatic potential productivity of Henan by using the methods of univariate linear regression, correlation analysis and R/S analysis. The results showed that:(1)during 1978—2017, the annual average temperature of Henan was 14.62℃, and the temperature showed the increasing trend with a rate of 0.34℃/decade; the annual average precipitation was 744.14 mm, and decreased at a rate of -2.51 mm/decade;(2)during the latest 40 years, the temperature and climatic potential productivity of Henan had kept increasing, with a tendency rates of 28.78 kg/(hm2·decade)and 10.80 kg/(hm2·decade), respectively; the precipitation potential productivity kept a downward trend at a rate of -2.29 kg/(hm2·decade);(3)from the perspective of spatial distribution, the temperature potential productivity slightly decreased from south to north, and from east to west; the precipitation and climatic potential productivity showed the decreasing trend from southeast to northwest;(4)the correlation analysis showed that the correlation coefficient of climatic potential productivity and precipitation in Henan was 0.956, and precipitation was the main limiting factor on climatic potential productivity;(5)R/S analysis showed that the average value of Hurst index of climatic potential productivity in Henan was 0.59, and the climatic potential productivity may continue to grow in the future. The climatic potential productivity of Henan was less affected by temperature and more affected by precipitation.