抚河流域干旱时空分布特征及其与ENSO的相关性
朱圣男1, 刘卫林1, 万一帆1, 黄一鹏1, 吴 滨1, 刘丽娜1, 杨船洋2

(1.南昌工程学院 江西省水文水资源与水环境重点实验室, 南昌 330099; 2.河海大学 水文水资源学院, 南京 210098)

抚河流域; SPI; 干旱; ENSO事件

Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Drought and Its Correlation with ENSO in Fuhe River Basin
ZHU Shengnan1, LIU Weilin1, WAN Yifan1, HUANG Yipeng1, WU Bin1, LIU Lina1, YANG Chuanyang2

(1.Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Water Environment, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, China; 2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Fuhe River Basin; SPI; drought; ENSO events

备注

为了分析干旱时空分布特征,并结合ENSO事件探究其相关性,基于抚河流域9个气象站点1960—2005年的逐月降水资料,根据计算出的SPI指数,利用M-K趋势检验、相关性分析等方法分析了1960—2005年抚河流域月、四季、年干旱及空间变化特征,并研究了ENSO事件与该区域的关系。结果 表明:流域春季有干旱化趋势,冬季有变湿态势,20世纪60,70年代干旱次数多,强度大,在1990—2005年,流域整体上的干旱次数程度和次数有增加的趋势。空间变化上,各季节干旱高频分别集中在流域东北部:春季在崇仁地区,夏季在南丰和黎川地区,秋季在抚州和金溪地区,冬季在东乡地区。抚河流域春季SSTA指数与SPI指数的相关性最明显,秋、夏季随之减弱。ENSO事件发生强度与抚河流域SPI影响因子的多项式拟合关系表明,ENSO事件暖事件年份的降水下降非常明显,其发生干旱的可能性大于冷事件年份,即ENSO暖事件强度越大,研究区越有可能发生严重的干旱事件。干旱对El Niño事件和La Niña事件的响应分别在滞后1～2个月、3～4个月的响应最为显著。

In order to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought and to explore its correlation with ENSO events, based on the monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2005 in 9 meteorological stations in the Fuhe River Basin, according to the calculated SPI, the MK trend test and correlation analysis were used to analyze the characteristics of monthly, four seasons, annual droughts and spatial changes in Fuhe River Basin from 1960 to 2005, and to study the relationship between ENSO events and the region. The results showed that there was a tendency of drought in the spring in the watershed and a trend of humidification in the winter; in the 1960s and 1970s, there were many droughts with high intensity; from 1990 to 2005, the degree and frequency of droughts in the river basin as a whole increased. In terms of spatial changes, the high frequency of drought in each season concentrated in the northeast of the basin: in the Chongren in spring, Nanfeng and Lichuan in summer, Fuzhou and Jinxi in autumn, and Dongxiang in winter. The correlation between the SSTA index and the SPI index in the Fuhe River Basin in spring was the most obvious, and then decreased in autumn and summer. The polynomial fitting relationship between the intensity of the ENSO event and the SPI influencing factors of the Fuhe River Basin showed that the precipitation of the ENSO event in the warm event year was very obvious, and the possibility of drought was greater than that in the cold event year, the greater the intensity of the ENSO warm event, the more likely a severe drought event will occur in the study area. The response of the drought to the El Niño and La Niña events was the most significant after lagging by 1 to 2 months and 3 to 4 months, respectively.