京津冀地区是我国政治、经济及文化发展的核心区域,气温是影响该地区生态环境和社会经济可持续发展的关键气候要素。基于京津冀地区及周边52个气象台站1957—2017年逐月气温数据,采用ANUSPLIN空间插值、线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动T检验、Morlet小波及R/S等方法,系统分析了京津冀地区1957—2017年气温变化的时空格局。结果 表明:京津冀地区近61 a来气温呈显著上升趋势,且具有明显的年代际周期性振荡。年均最低气温升温速率(0.43℃/10 a)分别为平均气温、最高气温的1.3倍、1.7倍,其首次升温突变时间(1975年)较平均气温、最高气温分别提前6,14 a。四季气温均显著升高,其中冬季升温对全年气温上升贡献最大。本区气温空间上自东南向西北逐渐降低,多呈升温趋势,升温速率东、西高,南、北低。气温Hurst指数大于0.5,其中最低气温及冬季气温Hurst指数均接近1,本区将持续升温,且低气温的升高仍是未来区域变暖的主要力量。
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is the political, economic and cultural center of China. Temperature is the key meteorological element that affects the sustainable development of ecological environment and social economy in this region. Based on the monthly temperature data from 52 meteorological stations in and around Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 1957 to 2017, the spatial-temporal variability of temperature in this region was analyzed by utilizing ANUSPLIN spatial interpolation, linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, moving T-test, Morlet wavelet, and R/S method. The results revealed that temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region had increased significantly in recent 61 years, showing distinct inter-decadal circles. The warming rate of annual minimum temperature(0.43℃/decade)was 1.3 times and 1.7 times of the level of annual average temperature and maximum temperature, respectively. The mutation of annual minimum temperature was firstly detected in 1975, which was 14 and 22 years earlier than that of annual average temperature and maximum temperature, respectively. Seasonal temperatures showed evident upward trends, and the average temperature rise in winter contributed the most to the annual temperature rise. Temperatures overall declined gradually from southeast to northwest in terms of the spatial distribution. Warming trends were observed in most areas, with high rates in the eastern and western regions, and low rates in the southern and northern regions. The Hurst indexes of annual and seasonal temperatures were all greater than 0.5, and those of minimum temperature and winter temperature were close to 1. It is therefore reasonable to infer that a persistently rising trend of temperature will prevail in the future, and the increase of low temperature will continue to be the main contributor to climate warming in this region.
