为深入认识气候变化背景下江西省气候及其生产潜力变化特征,利用1960—2017年江西省16站降水和气温数据,通过Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算气候生产潜力,运用线性拟合、Mann-Kendall突变和滑动t检验、ArcGIS空间分析等方法,分析了该地区降水、气温及气候生产潜力的时空变化特征,并探讨了气候生产潜力与降水、气温之间的关系。结果 表明:近58年江西省气候整体呈暖湿化趋势,降水、气温与气候生产潜力的变化率分别为32.25 mm/10 a,0.195℃/10 a,169.81 kg/(hm2·10 a),气温与气候生产潜力分别在1988年、1993年发生显著突变,降水未发生突变。空间上,降水以修水—寻乌为界向东、西两侧增加,气温和气候生产潜力均呈自东向西、由南向北递减。受降水和气温时空组合变化影响,直接影响该地区气候生产潜力的状况。“冷干化”气候不利于气候生产潜力,未来“暖湿化”气候则有利于气候生产潜力的提高。20世纪80年代以来,江西省粮食单产增加幅度明显高于同时期气候生产潜力增加量,气候资源利用率逐步提升。
In order to have a deep recognition of the variation features of climate and its potential productivity in Jiangxi Province under the influence of global warming, based on the precipitation and temperature data obtained from 16 stations in Jiangxi Province from 1960 to 2017, the climate potential productivity was calculated by Thornthwaite Memorial model. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation, temperature and climate potential productivity were analyzed by linear fitting, Mann-Kendall mutation & Moving t-Test Technique and ArcGIS spatial analysis. At the same time, the relationship among the potential of climate productivity, precipitation and temperature were discussed. The results show that the climate in Jiangxi Province has been warming and humidifying in the past 58 years, with the rate of 32.25 mm/decade, 0.195℃/decade and 169.81 kg/(hm2·10 a)for precipitation temperature and potential productivity, respectively; temperature and potential productivity were significant abrupt changes in 1988 and 1993, but there was no abrupt change in precipitation; Spatially, the precipitation increased eastward and westward with Xiushui-Xunwu boundary, while the temperature and potential productivity decreased from south to north and from east to west. The climate potential productivity was directly influenced by the combination of precipitation and temperature in this area. The cold-dry climate was not conducive to climate potential productivity, while the warm-humid climate trend in the future was conducive to the improvement of climate potential productivity. Since the 1980s, the increase of grain yield per unit area has been significantly higher than the climate potential productivity in the same period, and the utilization rate of climate resources has been gradually improved.
