近60年汾河中上游水沙变化趋势及其驱动因素
张 凯1, 鲁克新1,2, 李 鹏1,2, 李占斌1,2, 时 鹏1,2, 杨殊桐2

(1.西安理工大学 旱区生态水文与灾害防治国家林业局重点实验室, 西安 710048; 2.西安理工大学 省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 西安 710048)

汾河中上游; 水沙变化; 归因分析; 气候变化; 人类活动; 贡献率

Trend of Runoff and Sediment Change and Its Driving Factors in the Middle and Upper Reaches of Fenhe River in the Past 60 Years
ZHANG Kai1, LU Kexin1,2, LI Peng1,2, LI Zhanbin1,2, SHI Peng1,2, YANG Shutong2

(1.Key Laboratory of National Forestry Administration on Ecological Hydrology and Disaster Prevention in Arid Regions, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China Hydraulic, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China)

middle and upper reaches of Fenhe River; runoff and sediment change; attribution analysis; climate change; human activity; contribution rate

备注

为了揭示近60年汾河中上游水沙变化趋势及其驱动因素,使用Mann-Kendall检验法对汾河中上游年径流量和年输沙量序列进行了趋势和突变分析,并采用双累积曲线法定量计算了气候变化和人类活动对汾河中上游水沙变化的贡献率。结果 表明:1963—2016年期间汾河中上游的年径流量和年输沙量均呈现明显的减少趋势(p<0.01),突变发生年份分别为1981年和1980年; 气候变化对汾河中上游的年径流量和年输沙量减少的影响微弱,而社会经济发展、水利工程建设和各项水土保持措施实施等人类活动是导致汾河中上游的年径流量和年输沙量减少的主要原因; 气候变化和人类活动对汾河中上游径流量减少的贡献率分别为29%,71%,而二者对年输沙量减少的贡献率分别为22%,78%。研究成果可以为汾河中上游流域的水资源合理开发利用、水环境有效管理保护与水土保持工作宏观科学规划提供科学依据。

In order to reveal the change trend and driving factors on runoff and sediment changes in the middle and upper reaches of Fenhe River in the past 60 years, the Mann-Kendall test method was used to analyze the change trend and mutation of the annual runoff and annual sediment transport sequences, and the double cumulative curve method was used to quantitatively calculate the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment changes in the middle and upper reaches of Fenhe River. The results showed that the annual runoff and annual sediment transport volume in the middle and upper reaches of Fenhe River had the significant decreasing trend from 1963 to 2016 (p<0.01), and the mutation years are 1981 and 1980, respectively; climate change had little impact on annual runoff and annual sediment transport reduction in the middle and upper reaches of Fenhe River; a series of human activities such as socio-economic development, water conservancy project construction and various soil and water conservation measures were the main reasons for the annual runoff and annual sediment transport reduction; the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the reduction of annual runoff reduction were 29% and 71%, respectively, and those of climate change and human activities for the reduction of sediment transport were 22% and 78%, respectively. These results would provide a scientific support for the rational development and utilization of water resources, the effective management of water environment protection and the macro-scientific planning of soil and water conservation work in the upper and middle reaches of Fenhe River.