基于黄河入海水沙控制站利津站1950—2018年实测水沙数据,采用5 a滑动平均法等方法对水沙通量的趋势性进行了研究,以滑动T检验、Mann-Kendall检验法等对水沙时间序列的变异性进行了分析,以小波变换、经验模态分解等方法对水沙通量的周期性进行了研究,同时以交叉小波变换和小波相干谱分析了径流和输沙的共振周期与相干性。结果 表明:在最近70年内,黄河入海水沙通量呈现显著下降趋势,径流量和输沙量分别在1985年和1996年发生突变,入海径流量存在3～5 a、9～11 a,19～21 a的尺度周期,输沙量存在3～6 a,9～11 a,19～21 a的尺度周期。输沙和径流之间具有显著的正相位关系,在1960—1972年存在1～6 a的共振周期,并且两者低能量区关系远大于高能量区关系。研究成果可为黄河下游水资源管理、河口三角洲的生态治理以及侵蚀保护提供理论基础。
Based on the runoff and sediment data of Lijin hydrologic station from 1950 to 2018, which is a river sediment control station of Yellow River flowing into the Bohai Sea. We used the methods of 5-year moving average method to study the trend of runoff and sediment fluxes employed the means of more methods such as sliding T test, Mann-Kendall method to test the variability of runoff and sediment time series, and used the wavelet transform and empirical mode decomposition method to investigate the periodicity of water and sediment fluxes. The results show that the runoff and sediment fluxes of Yellow River into the sea have presented the significant decline in the last 70 years, the runoff and sediment discharge mutated in 1985 and 1996, respectively, the runoff flowing into the sea existed a cycle time around 3～5 years, 9～11-years and 19～21 years, the sediment transport had scale periods of 3～6 years, 9～11-years and 19～21 years; a significant positive phase relationship between sediment transport and runoff, and a resonance period of 1～6 years around 1960—1972 have been found, the significant correlation between sediment transport and runoff in low energy areas was much greater than that in the high energy areas. These results can provide theoretical basis for the water resources management of the lower reaches of the Yellow River, the ecological management of the estuary delta and erosion protection.
