为了保护生态环境和合理利用土地资源,以1978年、1985年、1995年、2005年、2015年5个时点的土地利用数据为基础,采用生态系统服务价值评估法、空间自相关分析、热点分析等方法分析了1978—2015年祊河流域生态系统服务价值时空演变规律。结果 表明:(1)流域土地利用变化趋势为耕地和草地减少,建设用地、水域、林地、未利用地增加。各地类间的转移以耕地向建设用地的转移为主,其次是耕地向林地以及耕地和草地之间的转移。(2)流域生态系统服务总价值变化呈“先减少后增加再减少”的波动减少趋势。耕地和草地的服务价值减小,林地、水域和未利用地的服务价值增加; 土壤形成与保护、食物生产、生物多样性保护、气体调节、原材料和气候调节的服务价值减小; 水源涵养、娱乐文化和废物处理的服务价值增加。(3)流域生态系统服务价值呈空间集聚分布格局且集聚程度略有减弱。冷点区范围呈明显的扩张趋势,且集中分布于平邑县、费县和兰山区的城区内; 热点区范围基本保持不变,主要分布在蒙山山脉、水库、河流和低山丘陵。
In order to protect the regional ecological environment and rational use of land resources, based on land use data in five time points in 1978, 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2015, the temporal and spatial evolution of ecosystem service value in the Benghe River Basin from 1978 to 2015 was analyzed by means of the adjusted equivalent factor valuation model of ecosystem service value, spatial autocorrelation analysis and hot spot analysis. The results showed that:(1)the trend of land use change in the basin is the reduction of cultivated land and grassland, and the increase of construction land, water area, forestland and unused land; the transfer between land use types is mainly based on the transfer of cultivated land to construction land, followed by the transfer of cultivated land to forestland and the transfer between cultivated land and grassland;(2)the change of ecosystem service value generally presents the decreasing trend; the specific change process was reduced at first, and then increased, and finally decreased; the ecosystem service value of cultivated land and grassland reduced, and the ecosystem service value of the forestland, water area and unused land increased; the ecosystem service value of soil formation and conservation, food production, biodiversity conservation, gas regulation, raw materials and climate regulation reduced, and the ecosystem service value of water conservation, recreational culture and waste disposal increased;(3)the ecosystem service value of the Benghe River Basin showed the spatial agglomeration distribution pattern and the degree of agglomeration was slightly weakened; the cold spot area had a clear expansion trend and concentrated in the built-up areas of Pingyi County, Fei County and Lanshan District, the hotspots area remained fundamentally unchanged, and the hotspots mainly distributed in the Mengshan Mountains, reservoirs, river and low hills.
