为了探究陕西省水资源脆弱性的现状趋势,利用2008—2017年陕西省各地市水质和水量的统计数据,基于抵抗力、适应力和恢复力3个层次构建了包含16个指标的水资源脆弱性综合评价指标体系,运用均方差法与变异系数法相结合的综合赋权法、K-means算法,对陕西省水资源脆弱性进行评价,分析了陕西省水资源脆弱性空间分布及未来趋势,讨论了影响脆弱性的综合原因。结果 表明:2008—2017年陕西省水资源脆弱性呈波动下降趋势,整体呈中等脆弱性; 关中与陕北水资源脆弱性在时间变化趋势上具有一致性; 水资源脆弱性空间差异明显,关中的脆弱性等级高于陕北、陕南。西安市为极脆弱等级,安康市为不脆弱等级; 人为政策的干预及极端天气事件的发生对水资源脆弱性的影响较为显著。
In order to explore the current situation of water resources vulnerability in Shaanxi Province, a comprehensive index system consisting of 16 indicators based on three aspects including resistance, adaptability and resilience was developed by using the statistical data of water quality and quantity of Shaanxi Province during the period from 2008 to 2017. A comprehensive weighting method combining the mean square error and the coefficient of variation method as well as K-means algorithm were utilized to classify the evaluation grades and evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in Shaanxi Province. The spatial distribution and future trends of water resources vulnerability were analyzed, and the reasons for affecting water resources vulnerability in Shaanxi Province were discussed. The results showd that the water resources fragility of Shaanxi Province presented the fluctuating downward trend from 2008 to 2017, and the overall situation was moderately fragile; similar variation trends of water resources fragility existed in Guanzhong and northern Shaanxi on a time scale, however, the spatial difference of water resources vulnerability was significant; the grade of water resources vulnerability of Guanzhong was higher than those of northern Shaanxi and southern Shaanxi, the most vulnerable areas appeared in Xi'an, while the areas with the least vulnerability appeared in Ankang City. Regional water vulnerability was significantly influenced by both human policy interventions and extreme weather events.
