[1]赵美亮,曹广超,曹生奎,等.1956—2016年大通河温度和降水及其与径流变化的关系[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(03):111-117.
　ZHAO Meiliang,CAO Guangchao,CAO Shengkui,et al.Temperature and Precipitation and Their Relationship with Runoff Change in Datong River from 1956 to 2016[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(03):111-117.
点击复制

1956—2016年大通河温度和降水及其与径流变化的关系

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 28 期数: 2021年03期 页码: 111-117 栏目: 出版日期: 2021-04-20
Title:
Temperature and Precipitation and Their Relationship with Runoff Change in Datong River from 1956 to 2016
文章编号:
1005-3409(2021)03-0111-07
作者:
赵美亮1,2,3, 曹广超2,3,4, 曹生奎1,2,3, 刘富刚5, 李洋洋5, 张 卓1,2,3, 刁二龙1,2,3, 陈治荣1,2,3
(1.青海师范大学 地理科学学院, 西宁 810008; 2.青海省自然地理与环境过程重点实验室, 西宁 810008; 3.青藏高原地表过程与生态保育教育部重点实验室, 西宁 810008; 4.青海省人民政府—北京师范大学 高原科学与可持续发展研究院, 西宁 810008; 5.德州学院 资源环境与规划学院, 山东 德州 253000)
Author(s):
ZHAO Meiliang1,2,3, CAO Guangchao2,3,4, CAO Shengkui1,2,3, LIU Fugang5, LI Yangyang5, ZHANG Zhuo1,2,3, DIAO Erlong1,2,3, CHEN Zhirong1,2,3
(1.SchoolofGeographicalScience,QinghaiNormalUniversity,Xining810008,China;2.QinghaiProvince KeyLaboratoryofPhysicalGeographyandEnvironmentalProcess,Xining810008,China;3.MOEKeyLaboratoryofTibetanPlateauLandSurfaceProcessesandEcologicalConservation,Xining810008,China;4.AcademyofPlateauScienceandSustainabilityPeople'sGovernmentofQinghaiProvince&BeijingNormalUniversity,Xining810008,China;5.CollegeofResources,EnvironmentandPlanning,DezhouUniversity,Dezhou,Shandong253023,China)
关键词:
气候变化;  径流量;  敏感性;  大通河
Keywords:
climate change;  runoff;  sensitivity;  Datong River
分类号:
P333
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
大通河流域位于祁连山南坡,是青海省东北部和甘肃西部重要的地表水源地,明晰大通河径流变化规律对其下游水资源开发利用和管理具有重大的意义。基于1956—2016年大通河尕日得、青石嘴和享堂水文站径流数据及其附近区域7个气象基站的气象数据,采用趋势分析、MK分析、小波分析及相关分析等数理统计方法,研究大通河径流变化及其与气温和降水的关系。结果表明:(1)1956—2016年大通河流域气候呈现暖湿化趋势,气温变化速率为0.22℃/(10 a)(p<0.01),降水变化速率为26.78 mm/(10 a)(p<0.01);(2)尕日得和青石嘴站径流量分别以0.1亿m3/(10 a),0.3亿m3/(10 a)的速率上升,享堂站以-0.87亿m3/(10 a)(p<0.05)的速率下降,三站均存在22 a尺度的主周期变化,分别在2010年、2001年、2000年发生突变;(3)3个水文站径流量与降水量均呈显著正相关关系。总的来看降水是其主要补给来源; 跨流域调水是引起大通河径流减小的主要人为因素。
Abstract:
Datong River valley which is located in the south slope of Qilian Mountains, is an important water source area for the northeast Qinghai Province and the western Gansu Province. It is of great significance to the development, utilization and management of the downstream water resources to clarify the change rule of Datong river runoff. Based on the runoff data of Garyide, Qingshizui and Xiangtang hydrological stations and meteorological data of 7 meteorological base stations nearby from 1956 to 2016, the trend analysis method, MK analysis, wavelet analysis and correlation analysis were used to study the runoff change and its relationship with temperature and precipitation in Datong River. The results show that:(1)a warm and humid climate of Datong river valley revealed from 1956 to 2016 with the temperature change rate of 0.22℃/decade(p<0.01)and the precipitation change rate of 26.78 mm/decade(p<0.01);(2)the runoff of Garyide and Qingshizui station increased at a rate of 10 million m3/decade and 30 million m3/decade, respectively, while the runoff of the Xiangtang station decreased at a rate of -87million m3/decade(p< 0.05). 22-year scale major periodic change occurred in the stations, and abrupt change was found in 2010, 2001 and 2000, respectively;(3)there was a significant positive correlation between runoff and precipitation in the three hydrological stations. In general, precipitation is the main supply source; inter-basin water transfer is the main human factor causinh the decrease of runoff in Datong River.

参考文献/References:

[1] IPCC. Climate change 2013:The physical science basis [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2013.
[2] 李勃,穆兴民,高鹏,等.1956—2017年黄河干流径流量时空变化新特征[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(6):120-126,132.
[3] 潘娅英,骆月珍,王亚男,等.新安江流域降水、径流演变特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(6):121-125.
[4] 王珂,蒲焘,史晓宜,等.澜沧江源区气温与降水对径流变化的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2020,16(3):306-315.
[5] Gao J, Yao T D, Masson-Delmotte V, et al. Collapsing glaciers threaten Asia's water supplies [J]. Nature, 2019,565:19-21.
[6] 孙栋元,齐广平,马彦麟,等.疏勒河干流径流变化特征研究[J].干旱区地理,2020,43(3):557-567.
[7] 张雪琪,满苏尔·沙比提,刘海涛,等.1957—2015年叶尔羌河流域气候变化特征及其径流响应[J].干旱区研究,2019,36(1):58-66.
[8] 李云武,崔力超,王冠星.黑河上游八宝河流域径流变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].水文,2019,39(2):39-43.
[9] 董军,胡进宝,魏国孝.大通河流域径流变化及特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(6):75-80,87.
[10] Zheng S, Cheng H, Shi S, et al. Impact of anthropogenic drivers on subaqueous topographical change in the Datong to Xuliujing reach of the Yangtze River[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 2018,61(7):940-950.
[11] 黄维东,牛最荣,刘彦娥,等.梯级水电开发对大通河流域洪水过程的影响分析[J].水文,2016,36(4):58-65.
[12] 刘赛艳,黄强,解阳阳,等.大通河流域上游径流变化特征与突变分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2016,44(3):219-226.
[13] 王大超.大通河径流变化特征及其影响因素探析[D].兰州:兰州大学,2019.
[14] 黄维东,牛最荣,马正耀,等.大通河流域水能水资源开发对河流水文过程和环境的影响[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(6):1574-1581.
[15] 张晓晓,张钰,徐浩杰.1950—2005年大通河流域径流变化特征及影响因素[J].水文,2013,33(6):90-96.
[16] 刘赛艳,黄强,王义民,等.大通河流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文响应[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(6):1658-1665.
[17] 王伟.上游大通径流量对长江盐水入侵影响研究[J].科学技术与工程,2016,16(3):106-111.
[18] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[19] Mann H B. Nonparametric tests against trend [J]. Econometrica, 1945,13(3):245-259.
[20] Kendall M G. Rank correlation methods[M]. London:Griffin, 1975.
[21] 桑燕芳,王中根,刘昌明.小波分析方法在水文学研究中的应用现状及展望[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(9):1413-1422.
[22] 者萌,张雪芹,沈鹏珂,等.京津冀地区1957—2017年气温变化时空格局[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(5):194-201.
[23] 冯禹昊,朱江玲.基于Morlet小波的辽河径流量变化及其成因分析[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(2):208-215.
[24] 徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[25] 蓝永超,钟英君,吴素芬,等.天山南、北坡典型河流出山径流对气候变化响应的分析对比[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(1):254-260.
[26] 周俊菊,雷莉,石培基,等.石羊河流域河川径流对气候与土地利用变化的响应[J].生态学报,2015,35(11):3788-3796.
[27] 朱丽蓉,刘宇航,叶长青.海南岛干旱地区昌化江径流变化及影响因素[J].生态科学,2020,39(1):183-189.
[28] 代晓颖,许有鹏,林芷欣,等.长江下游秦淮河流域径流变化及影响因素分析[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(4):68-73.

相似文献/References:

[1]余海龙,黄菊莹,王亭荷.宁夏中部干旱带56年来气候生产潜力变化特征研究——以宁夏中宁县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):172.
　YU Hai-long,HUANG Ju-ying,WANG Ting-he.Impact of Climate Change on Climate Potential Productivity in Recent 56 Years in Middle Arid Regions of Ningxia-A Case Study of Zhongning County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):172.
[2]木沙·如孜,白云岗,雷晓云,等.塔里木河流域气候及径流变化特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):122.
　MUSHA·Ruzi,BAI Yun-gang,LEI Xiao-yun,et al.Study on the Change of Climate and Runoff in the Tarim River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):122.
[3]赵金忠,赵年武,赵恒和,等.贵德县近50年气候变化及对冬小麦生产潜力的影响[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(04):260.
　ZHAO Jin-zhong,ZHAO Nian-wu,ZHAO Heng-he,et al.Climatic Changes in the Past 50 Years in Guide County, Qinghai Province, and Their Influences on Potential Productivity of Winter Wheat[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):260.
[4]张艺,余新晓,范敏锐,等.北京山区刺槐林净初级生产力对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(03):151.
　ZHANG Yi,YU Xin-xiao,FAN Min-rui,et al.Response of Net Primary Productivity of Robinia pseudoacacia Forest to Climate Change in Beijing Mountainous Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):151.
[5]王兮之,梁钊雄,周显辉,等.黄河源区玛曲县植被覆盖度及其气候变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):57.
　WANG Xi-zhi,LIANG Zhao-xiong,ZHOU Xian-hui,et al.Vegetation Coverage and Climate Change of Maqu County in Source Region of Yellow River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):57.
[6]何毅,王飞,穆兴民,等.近60年关中一天水经济区降水量特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):65.
　HE Yi,WANG Fei,MU Xing-min,et al.Analysis on Characteristic of Precipitation in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone in Recent 60 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):65.
[7]卓玛兰草,刘普幸,张亚宁,等.甘肃黄土高原区潜在蒸散量时空变化与成因研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):70.
　ZHUO Malancao,LIU Pu-xing,ZHANG Ya-ning,et al.Study on Temporal and Spatial Changes of the Potential Evapotranspiration and Its Impact Factors in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):70.
[8]南峰,李有利,史兴民.新疆玛纳斯河水量波动与气候变化之间的关系[J].水土保持研究,2003,10(03):59.
　NAN Feng,LI You-li,SHI Xing-min.Relationship of the Fluctuations of Stream Discharge of the Manas River and Climatic Changes[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2003,10(03):59.
[9]刘占静.2003年玛纳斯河汛期水情特征及其成因[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(04):198.
　LIU Zhan-jing.Discharge Characteristic of the Manasi River During Flood Season of 2003[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2004,11(03):198.
[10]刘新春,杨金龙,杨青.三工河流域40年来气温、降水变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(06):54.
　LIU Xin-chun,YANG Jin-long,YANG Qing.Analysis on the Variations Characteristics of Air Temperature, Precipitation in the Sangong River Basin in the Past 40 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(03):54.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2020-06-30 修回日期:2020-07-29
资助项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404304); 青海省科技厅重大专项项目(2019-SF-A12); 青海省自然科学资助项目(2018-ZJ-903)
第一作者:赵美亮(1995—),男,山东临沂人,硕士研究生,研究方向为地表环境过程。E-mail:zhaomeiliang2014@163.com
通信作者:曹广超(1971—),男,山东苍山人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事青藏高原地区环境变化与地理信息系统应用研究。E-mail:caoguangchao@126.com

更新日期/Last Update: 2021-04-20