[1]刘永婷,徐光来,李鹏,等.淮河上游径流年内分配均匀度及变化规律[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(05):99-104.
　LIU Yongting,XU Guanglai,LI Peng,et al.Study on Runoff Uniformity and Variation in the Upper Reaches of Huaihe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(05):99-104.
点击复制

淮河上游径流年内分配均匀度及变化规律

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 24 期数: 2017年05期 页码: 99-104 栏目: 出版日期: 2017-10-28
Title:
Study on Runoff Uniformity and Variation in the Upper Reaches of Huaihe River Basin
作者:
刘永婷1,2, 徐光来1,2, 李鹏3, 尹周祥1,2, 刘继锋4, 高超1,2
1. 安徽师范大学 国土资源与旅游学院, 安徽 芜湖 241003;
2. 安徽自然灾害过程与防控研究省级实验室, 安徽 芜湖 241003;
3. 河南省驻马店水文水资源勘测局, 河南 驻马店 450003;
4. 信阳市水文水资源勘查局, 河南 信阳 464000
Author(s):
LIU Yongting1,2, XU Guanglai1,2, LI Peng3, YIN Zhouxiang1,2, LIU Jifeng4, GAO Chao1,2
1. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui 241003, China;
2. Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu, Anhui 241003, China;
3. Zhumadian Municipal Bureau of Hydrology, Zhumadian, He’nan 450003, China;
4. Xinyang Municipal Bureau of Hydrology, Xinyang, He’nan 464000, China
关键词:
流量变化; 均匀度; 变化规律; 淮河上游
Keywords:
runoff variation; inhomogeneous; periodic properties; the upper reaches of Huaihe River
分类号:
P333
摘要:
研究淮河上游径流量的年内分配均匀度及其变化周期，为防洪防汛，水资源的合理规划管理及区域社会经济可持续发展提供决策依据。选取1975—2014年淮河上游2个水文代表站点（大坡岭和长台关）实测逐日流量数据，计算各年平均流量基尼系数和洛伦兹不对称系数，采用线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验、R/S分析和小波分析等数理统计方法，分析了淮河上游流量的年内分配均匀度、变化趋势及周期特征。结果表明：（1）近40年淮河上游大坡岭和长台关水文站的逐年平均流量均呈微弱下降趋势，其线性倾向率分别为-1.68 m3/（s·10 a）和-3.83 m3/（s·10 a）。年均流量的基尼系数变化幅度不明显，年平均基尼系数分别为0.54和0.53。洛伦兹不对称系数呈不显著上升趋势，大于1的洛伦兹不对称系数的年份占总年份的比例分别约为65%和57.5%；（2）2个水文站的Hurst指数都略大于0.5，表明存在显著的Hurst现象，即该地区年径流时间序列大体上延续历史变化趋势，说明在未来一段时间内年径流量仍将微弱减少；（3）近40年淮河上游年径流变化主要存在3 a，12 a和28 a的主周期。在气候变化、流域下垫面和人类活动的综合影响下，河川径流的年内分配均匀度发生着相应变化。
Abstract:
Taking the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin as a case study, we investigated the variation of runoff in order to provide the scientific basis for flood control, water resource reasonably planning and economy sustainable development. Based on daily runoff data from 1975 to 2014 in two hydrological stations (Dapoling and Changtaiguan) of Huaihe River, Gini coefficient and Lorenz asymmetry coefficient in two hydrological stations were statistically analyzed after building the Gini coefficient runoff uneven distribution model, annual runoff. The characteristics of annual runoff change were analyzed by using the linear regression, Mann-Kendall (MK) test, rescaled range (R/S) analysis, wavelet transforms and other mathematic statistic methods. Some important results were obtained as follows. (1) The runoff trends of Dapoling and Changtaiguan hydrological stations were weak decrease with time at rates of -1.68 m3/(s·decade) and -3.83 m3/(s·decade), respectively. Gini coefficient had a non-significant change. The average Gini coefficients of two stations were 0.54 and 0.53, respectively, indicating that the annual distribution of runoff was heterogeneous. The Lorenz asymmetry coefficients (S > 1) of two stations accounted for 65% and 57.5%, respectively, indicating that it had greater percentage of the runoff in large runoff months. Lorenz asymmetry coefficient of annual runoff showed insignificant increasing trend, showing that the inhomogeneous degree of the runoff distribution had weak increase. (2) Hurst indexes of the two hydrological stations were slightly great than 0.5 in annual mean runoff by R/S analysis, indicating that there was obvious Hurst phenomenon, and showing that the slight decreasing trend in upper reaches of the Huaihe River would continue in the near future. (3) The oscillating periods of runoff in the past 40 years had complex variation characters with a nested structure on multiple time scales. The wavelet analysis showed that there were three periodic oscillations of 2～5 years, 10～15 years and 25～30 years. After the analysis of wavelet variance plots, it was found that there were 3 years, 12 years and 28 years periodic fluctuations of annual mean runoff. The two stations might have a quasi-period of 28 years, which need a longer time series to prove. The response of river water resource to both human activities and climate change, as the theoretical basis to understand the river hydrological process and the sustainable use of regional water resources, has gained more and more attentions on water research during the last decades.

参考文献/References:

[1] 高超,陈实,翟建青,等.淮河流域旱涝灾害致灾气候阈值[J].水科学进展,2014,25(1):36-34.
[2] 顾西辉,张强,陈晓宏.中国降水及流域径流均匀度时空特征及影响因子研究[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(10):1714-1724.
[3] 白桦,穆兴民,高鹏,等.嘉陵江流域降水及径流演变规律分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(1):102-106.
[4] 刘艺,雷晓云,马红刚,等.巴音沟河近60年出山口年径流量演变规律[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(2):139-142.
[5] 孙鹏,张强,白云岗,等.塔里木河流域径流量周期特征及影响因素[J].地理科学,2013,33(2):216-222.
[6] 张健,李同昇,张俊辉,等.1933—2012年无定河径流突变与周期特征诊断[J].地理科学,2016,36(3):475-480.
[7] 杨鹏鹏,黄晓荣,柴雪蕊,等.南水北调西线引水区近50年径流变化趋势对气候变化的响应[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(2):271-277.
[8] 张水峰,张金池,闵俊杰,等.基于径流分析的淮河流域汛期旱涝急转研究[J].湖泊科学,2012,24(5):679-686.
[9] 张晓红,陈兴,罗连升,等.1960—2008年淮河流域面雨量时空变化及径流响应[J].资源科学,2015,37(10):2051-2058.
[10] 姚梦婷,高超,陆苗,等.1959—2008年淮河流域极端径流的强度和频率特征[J].地理研究,2015,34(8):1535-1546.
[11] 潘扎荣,阮晓红,朱愿福,等.近50 a来淮河干流径流演变规律分析[J].水土保持学报,2013,27(1):51-59.
[12] 杜鸿,夏军,曾思栋,等.淮河流域极端径流的时空变化规律及统计模型[J].地理学报,2012,67(3):398-409.
[13] 李如忠,舒琨.基于基尼系数的水污染负荷分配模糊优化决策模型[J].环境科学学报,2010,30(7):1518-1526.
[14] 叶琰,马光文,龙训建,等.金沙江下游及三峡梯级径流及突变分析[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(2):41-44.
[15] 史婉丽,杨勤科,李小芳,等.基于洛伦兹曲线的陕北黄土高原降雨分布不均匀性分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(4):172-177.
[16] Damgard C, Weiner J. Describing Inequality in Plant Size or Fecundity [J]. Ecology, 2000,81:1139-1142.
[17] 王青,刘招,陶望雄.基于洛伦兹曲线的泾河张家山站径流及降雨分布不均匀性分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(1):119-122,127.
[18] 张磊,潘婕,陶生财.1961—2011年临沂市气温变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(5):204-210.
[19] 李国栋,张俊华,王乃昂,等.基于重标极差分析和非周期循环分析的气候变化趋势预测:以兰州市为例[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(2):299-307.
[20] 张健,李同昇,张俊辉,等.1933—2012年无定河径流突变与周期特征诊断[J].地理科学,2016,36(3):475-480.
[21] Zhang Y Y, Shao Q X, Xia J, et al. Change of flow regimes and precipitation in Huai River Basin in the last half century[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2011,25(2):246-257.
[22] 唐为安,田红,卢燕宇,等.1961—2012年降水和土地利用变化对淮河干流上中游径流的影响[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(10):1647-1653.
[23] 王振龙,陈玺,郝振纯,等.淮河干流径流量长期变化趋势及周期分析[J].水文,2011,31(6):79-85.
[24] 郑泳杰,张强,陈晓宏.1961—2005年淮河流域降水时空演变特征分析[J].武汉大学学报:理学版,2015,61(3):247-254.
[25] Prestes A, Rigozo N R, Echer E, et al. Spectral analysis of sunspot number and geomagnetic indices(1986—2001)[J]. Journal of Atmosphere and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2006,68(2):182-190.
[26] 王兆礼,陈晓宏,杨涛.近50 a东江流域径流变化及影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(8):1365-1374.
[27] 张晓芳,刘松涛,查石祥,等.太阳活动11年周期对气象参数影响[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(1):172-181.

相似文献/References:

[1]杨俊杰,张克斌,乔锋,等.盐池县四儿滩湿地及其周边植物多样性研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(05):61.
　YANG Jun-jie,ZHANG Ke-bin,QIAO Feng,et al.Study on Vegetation Diversity of Siertan Wetland and Its Surroundings in Yanchi County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(05):61.
[2]奇凯,张春雨,侯继华,等.赤峰市黑里河天然油松林空间分布格局研究[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(04):239.
　QI Kai,ZHANG Chun-yu,HOU Ji-hua,et al.Spatial Pattern of Pinus tabulaeformis Forest[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(05):239.
[3]张新民,张吉孝,单鱼洋.垄作沟灌水分入渗模拟与灌水沟断面优化[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(01):137.
　ZHANG Xin-min,ZHANG Ji-xiao,SHAN Yu-yang.Numerical Simulation of Infiltration and Cross-section Optimization under Furrow Irrigation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(05):137.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2016-09-12;改回日期:2016-09-29。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目（41301029，41301011），国家自然科学基金项目（41571018）
作者简介:刘永婷(1985-),女,安徽阜阳人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为水文学和水资源。E-mail:2662291994@qq.com
通讯作者:徐光来(1978-),男,安徽无为人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为水文学与水资源。E-mail:guanglaixu@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01