ZHENG Xin,CHENG Jiu-miao,ZHENG Shuo.Research on Carbon Emissions and Influence Factors in Wuhu City Based on the Change of Land Use Structure[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):259-262,268.
基于土地利用结构变化的芜湖市碳排放及其影响因素研究
- Title:
- Research on Carbon Emissions and Influence Factors in Wuhu City Based on the Change of Land Use Structure
- Keywords:
- land use structure; carbon emission; STIRPAT model; Wuhu City
- 分类号:
- X22;F301.2
- 摘要:
- 碳排放与土地利用密切相关，土地利用可以造成直接碳排放和间接碳排放。为了分析土地利用结构变化的碳排放效应，该文计算得出芜湖市2000-2010年主要土地利用方式的碳排放总量，并利用回归函数进行STIRPAT模型拟合，进一步研究了影响碳排放量的主要因素，最后提出低碳的土地利用对策。结果表明：（1）2000-2010年期间，芜湖市碳排放量呈现快速增长的趋势，年均增长率达到15.17%。其中，建设用地和林地分别为主要的碳源和碳汇。（2）碳排放量与人口、经济增长关系的相关性显著，其中人口对碳排放的解释作用最大，人口每增加1%，碳排放量相应的增加8.726%。
- Abstract:
- Land use is closely related to carbon emissions,which can cause direct and indirect carbon emissions. In order to analyze the effects of land use structure on carbon emission, in this study, we calculated the overall carbon emissions of Wuhu City from 2000 to 2010, which was influenced by different land use patterns. Furthermore, liner regression function was used for STIRPAT model fitting based on calculated results, and the influence factors of carbon emissions were further discussed. Finally, some suggestions were put forward to reduce carbon emissions in land use. The results indicated that: (1) the total carbon emissions increased gradually with an average growth rate of 15.17% per annum over the years 2000-2010. The construction land and forest land were the main carbon sources and sink, respectively; (2) the model fitting for the carbon emissions versus population and economic growth was remarkably related. The population was the major cause of carbon emissions, the carbon emissions would correspondingly increase by 8.726% with every 1% of population growth.
参考文献/References:
[1] 赵荣钦,刘英,郝仕龙,等.低碳土地利用模式研究[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(5):190-194.
[2] Stern N.The Economics of Climate Change:The Stern Review[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[3] Schipper L,Murtishaw S,Khrushch M,et al.Carbone missions from manufacturing energy use in 13 IEA countries:long-term trends through 1995[J].Energy Policy,2001,29(9):667-688.
[4] 姚章杰,张凤娥,李晓西,等.基于低碳的上海松江新城北部片区空间发展潜力评价[J].复旦学报:自然科学版,2010,49(3):349-354.
[5] 摆万奇,赵士洞.土地利用和土地覆盖变化研究模型综述[J].自然资源学报,1997,12(2):169-175.
[6] 杨庆媛.土地利用变化与碳循环[J].中国土地科学,2010,24(10):7-12.
[7] 杜官印.建设用地对碳排放的影响关系研究[J].中国土地科学,2010,24(10):32-36.
[8] 葛全胜,戴君虎,何凡能,等.过去300年中国土地利用、土地覆被变化与碳循环研究[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008,38(2):197-210.
[9] IPCC.2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory,2006.
[10] 赵敏,张卫国,俞立中.上海市能源消费碳排放分析[J].环境科学研究,2009,22(8):984-989.
[11] 谢鸿宇,陈贤生,林凯荣,等.基于碳循环的化石能源及电力生态足迹[J].生态学报,2008,28(4):1729-1735.
[12] 李颖,黄贤金,甄峰.江苏省区域不同土地利用方式的碳排放效应分析[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(2):102-107.
[13] 张秀梅,李升峰,黄贤金,等.江苏省1996年至2007年碳排放效应及时空格局分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(4):768-775.
[14] York R,Rosa E A,Dietz T.STIRRPAT,IPAT and IMPACT:analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts[J].Ecological Economics,2003,46(3):351-365.
[15] 郭运功,汪冬冬,林逢春.上海市能源利用碳排放足迹研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(2):103-108.
相似文献/References:
[1]史海静,李锐.水土保持工程综合效益评价研究——以陕西省长江流域水土流失综合治理工程为例[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(02):40.
SHI Hai-jing,LI Rui.Benefits Evaluation of Soil and Water Conservation Project——A Case Study on “Changzhi”Project of Yangzi River in Shanxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(03):40.
[2]刘志有,蒲春玲,万婷,等.土地利用结构变迁及调整对策研究——以新疆伊犁河谷地区为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):202.
LIU Zhi-you,PU Chun-ling,WAN Ting,et al.Study on Land Use Structure Changes and Countermeasures-A Case of Ili River Valley Area, Xinjiang Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):202.
[3]王才军,孙德亮,张凤太.基于农业投入的重庆农业碳排放时序特征及减排措施研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(05):206.
WANG Cai-jun,SUN De-liang,ZHANG Feng-tai.Research on Temporal Characteristics and Reduction Policy Based on Input in Chongqing Municipality[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):206.
[4]赵菲菲,刘东,刘萌.基于信息熵和灰关联的建三江分局土地利用结构驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(03):250.
ZHAO Fei-fei,LIU Dong,LIU Meng.Driving Force Analysis of Land Use Structure in Jiansanjiang Branch Bureau Based on Information Entropy and Gray Correlative Degree[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):250.
[5]范辉,朱红波,周晋,等.虚拟土的基本理论问题研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(03):294.
FAN Hui,ZHU Hong-bo,ZHOU Jin,et al.Study on the Basic Theoretical Issues of Virtual Land[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):294.
[6]董杰,杨春德,周秀慧,等.山东省土地利用结构时空变化及其驱动机制分析[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(04):206.
DONG Jie,YANG Chun-de,ZHOU Xiu-hui,et al.Analysis of Spatio-temporal Changes and Driving Mechanism of Land-use Structure in Shandong Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(03):206.
[7]肖鹤亮,陈美球,龙颖.广丰县经济发展与土地利用结构变化互动关系研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(04):49.
XIAO He-liang,CHEN Mei-qiu,LONG Ying.Interactive Relationship between Land Use Structure Changes and Economic Development in Guangfeng County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(03):49.
[8]王伟林,黄贤金,钟太洋.区域土地利用变化的生态系统服务价值响应——以南京市为例[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(01):212.
WANG Wei-lin,HUANG Xian-jin,ZHONG Tai-yang.Area Land Use Change Responses to the Ecosystem Service Value—A Case Study of Nanjing City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(03):212.
[9]何淑勤,郑子成,陈华峰.重庆市北碚区土地利用结构变化特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(03):84.
HE Shu-qin,ZHENG Zi-cheng,Chen Hua-feng.Study on Variation of Regional Land Use Structure in Beibei, Chongqing[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(03):84.
[10]李文卓,谢永生,刘涛,等.黄土高原沟壑区农户土地利用结构变化与效益分析[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(03):159.
LI Wen-zhuo,XIE Yong-sheng,LIU Tao,et al.Analysis of Land Use Characteristic Change and Economic Profit Among Peasant Households in the Loess Upland Gully Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(03):159.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2011-11-9;改回日期:2011-12-5。
基金项目:中部地区城市带发展土地保障与监管技术系统开发与示范（201111010）
作者简介:郑欣（1985- ），女，安徽省淮南市人，硕士研究生，研究方向：土地利用规划与管理。E-mail：zhengxin0721@126.com
通讯作者:程久苗（1964- ），男，安徽省安庆市人，教授，硕士生导师，主要研究方向为：土地利用规划与管理。E-mail：jmcheng@mail.edu.cn