ZHANG Hong,LI Hai-lin,CHEN Zhen.Analysis on Land Use Dynamic Change and Its Impact on the Water Environment in Dianchi Lake Drainage Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):92-96.
滇池流域土地利用动态变化及对流域水环境的影响分析
- Title:
- Analysis on Land Use Dynamic Change and Its Impact on the Water Environment in Dianchi Lake Drainage Area
- Keywords:
- land use; ArcGIS; Markov; Dianchi Lake Drainage Area; water environment
- 分类号:
- X143
- 摘要:
- 以滇池流域为研究对象，以1974年、1988年、1998年、2008年四个时期的TM遥感影像为数据基础，结合图像处理、地理信息系统及计量软件，应用马尔柯夫模型对研究区土地利用动态变化及变化趋势进行了分析，同时研究了该区域土地利用变化对水环境的影响。结果表明：①滇池流域近30 a来土地利用状况发生了明显的变化，其中耕地、建设用地和其它地类的变化幅度较大，水域和林地变化不明显。②马尔柯夫链预测结果表明：2015—2030年研究区内建设用地面积进一步增加，林地、水域和其它地类进一步减少，但减少的幅度在逐渐变小，耕地面积也继续减少。③滇池流域的水质明显受到土地利用类型及利用变化情况的影响：在5%显著性水平下TP和BOD与土地利用类型之间存在相关关系，建设用地对总氮量的弹性为15.31，耕地对总氮量弹性为10.47，牧草地对总氮量弹性为-156.74。建设用地对BOD的影响为543.79，耕地对BOD影响为-272.49，林地对BOD影响为160.88；在20%显著性水平下COD与土地利用类型之间存在相关关系，建设用地、耕地和湿地对COD的弹性分别为173.88，-100.75，-4 920.59。④马尔柯夫链预测结果表明，随着年份的增长，水质污染状况指标呈现持续恶化的趋势。
- Abstract:
- The study area was divided into 5 big categories according to Class One Classification: arable land, woodland, construction land, water body and other land type. The Edras remote sensing image processing software and the ArcGIS geographic information system software were used to calibrate, match and enhance the Landsat-5(TM) remote sensing satellite images of four periods of 1974, 1988, 1998 and 2008. The resolution of Landsat-5(TM) original data is 30 m. Through the GPS field investigation, the visual interpretation of remote sensing image was obtained and the images of each period were interpreted with human computer interactive interpretation technology to generate the distribution situation of land use at four time points. The ArcMAP module in the ArcGIS was used to conduct a map overlapping analysis, the transition matrix of land use spatial dynamic change was established according to Markov model and 2 indices of land use area variation rate and land use dynamic state were used to quantitatively analyze the land use structural change in the study area, in which the unit root test and cointegration test were adopted to analyze the simulation of land use and water environment change in the drainage area. On the basis before that, Markov forecast model was used and both the land use results in the later period and the effect on the water environment were forecast with the Matlab software. The results showed that: ① the land use situation in the Dianchi Lake basin in the past 30 years had significantly changed, in which the changes of the arable land, construction land and other similar changes were extremely great, while the changes of the water body and forestland were not so obvious; ② the results of Markov model forecast showed that the land for construction in the study area further increases through 2015 to 2030, while the woodland, water body and other types of land further decreases, but the rate of decrease is gradually becoming smaller and the cultivated land area continues to decrease as well;③the correlativity existing between TP and BOD under 5% significant level and COD under 20% significant level can be obtained; ④the indices of water pollution have a tendency of continuous deterioration over the years.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2011-6-3;改回日期:2011-7-28。
基金项目:国家自然基金项目“生态视角下云南高原湖滨城市土地集约利用模式与管理机制研究”（70863014）
作者简介:张洪（1958- ），男，四川人，硕士生导师，教授，主要从事城市土地管理和GIS应用研究。E-mail：zhanghong0957@sina.com