Xu Xuexuan,Chen Guoliang,Ma Guozhong.The Variation Features of Grain Yield in Guyuan County in Recent 30 Years and the Contribution of Associated Factors[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1996,3(01):196-201,207.
固原30年粮食产量变化及技术进步贡献的数量分析
- Title:
- The Variation Features of Grain Yield in Guyuan County in Recent 30 Years and the Contribution of Associated Factors
- 摘要:
- 运用时间序列与多元回归分析法，对固原县30年粮食单产变化及技术进步贡献进行了较系统的分析，结果表明：（1）该县粮食产量在30年中经历了三个阶级：60年代中后期，单产徘徊于450～750kg/hm2，技术退步，导致减产的贡献显着大于气候不利造成减产的贡献.70年代至80年代初，单产在750～1200kg/hm2徘徊，并有其技术水平对产量增加的贡献为46%，接近于气候不利带来的负增产（54%）.1983年至1993年，粮食有明显增长，单产基本稳定进入1200kg/hm2.技术水平对产量增加贡献占79.2%，而气候不利的负增产仅占20.2%，技术水平的贡献明显大于气候的影响.（2）从1970年始，粮食单产变化中各技术水平因子的贡献分别为：良种32.2%、化肥26.5%、牧业与农肥24.4%，农田基建16.8%.在1983～1993年间，技术进步占到单产提高的48.67%、生产条件改善为31.13%，其余为气候带来的负增产贡献.
- Abstract:
- The long historical unit grain yields in Guyuan were analysed by using single factor’s muti-times regression, and muti-factors regression, the variation features of unit yield in recent 30 years and thier relationships with the associated factors were also analyzed.The results show that:① The variation classed into three stae: In mid-late 60’s nit yield variated around 450-750kg/hm2, with technique r retrogression and unfitable climate.In 70’s-80’s, unit yield fluctuated around 750-1 200kg/hm2, with some technique’s development.In late 90’s the unit yield reched at 1 200kg/hm2 with the laryely contribution of technique’s development ②Began at 1970, the contribution factors of technique on unit yield’s variation are that: among total contribution of technique factors, poultry(manure) 24.4%, chemical fertilizer 26.5%, improved varieties 32.2%, terrace field 16.8%.during 1983-1993, Influence of factors on increesing unit yield was divided as fallow: 48.67% was from technique development, 31.13% was contributed by improved produce condition, and others 20.2% came from oscillated climate.
参考文献/References:
[1] 魏淑秋编著.农业气象学, 福州:福建科学技术出版社, 1985
[2] 宁夏固原县科委.固原县科技发展规划:1991. 9
[3] 张宇.近40年来我国粮食产量变化特征初步分析.中国农业气象, 1995, 16(3):1-4
[4] 夏恩君, 王培志等.农业技术进步贡献份额与技术效率的测算分析.农业系统科学与综合研究, 1995, 11(3):173-176
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:1995-11-10;改回日期:。