Tu Xiao,Zhong Taiyang.Evaluation of implementation effectiveness of farmland satellite monitoring based on explainable machine learning[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(06):216-224.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.06.008]
基于可解释机器学习的耕地卫片监督实施效果评价
- Title:
- Evaluation of implementation effectiveness of farmland satellite monitoring based on explainable machine learning
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409（2025）06-0216-09
- 分类号:
- P963
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的] 耕地卫片监督主要包括耕地卫片监测和后续的排查整改两个部分。评价耕地卫片监督的实施效果旨在探讨其对耕地保护的影响程度，为完善自然资源监管体制提供参考。[方法] 采用XGBOOST和SHAP（ShapleyAdditive Explanations）方法，识别2015—2021年影响31个省级行政区耕地面积变化率的主要因素及影响力大小，拟合各省级行政区耕地面积变化率特征值和SHAP值用以评估二者的线性关系，并分析耕地卫片监督实施效果的区域异质性特征。[结果]（1）耕地卫片监测实施时长与耕地变化率呈显著正相关，表明该措施有效减少了耕地流失。（2）耕地流出问题排查整改对耕地保护具有积极影响，其重要性高于耕地卫片监督的实施时长，证实了发现耕地问题图斑后的整改工作至关重要。（3）耕地卫片监测的实施效果具有区域异质性，即东部地区如河北省、山东省和江苏省的耕地保护效果较好，而中西部地区如贵州省、重庆市和陕西省则在耕地流出问题排查整改方面保护效果更为显著。[结论] 耕地卫片监督配合年度耕地流出问题排查整改建立起“测、查、改、补”的监管体系，对发现、遏制耕地流失，整改、恢复流出耕地具有积极作用，但由于各地方政策推行时间差，其实施效果尚未完全显现。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] Satellite monitoring of farmland mainly includes satellite imagery monitoring and subsequent investigation and remediation. Evaluating the implementation effectiveness of farmland satellite monitoring aims to explore its impact on farmland protection and provide references for improving the natural resources regulatory system. [Methods] The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST) and Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP) methods were used to identify the main factors influencing the farmland area change rate and their impact magnitude in 31 provincial-level administrative regions from 2015 to 2021. The feature values of farmland area change rates and SHAP values in each provincial-level administrative region were fitted to evaluate their linear relationships, and regional heterogeneity of the implementation effectiveness of farmland satellite monitoring were analyzed. [Results] (1) The implementation duration of farmland satellite monitoring was significantly positively correlated with the farmland change rate, indicating that this measure effectively reduced farmland loss. (2) The investigation and remediation of farmland outflow had a positive effect on farmland protection, with importance higher than the implementation duration of farmland satellite monitoring, confirming that the remediation efforts after the occurrence of farmland problematic spots was crucial.(3) The implementation effectiveness of farmland satellite monitoring showed regional heterogeneity： the farmland protection effect was better in eastern regions such as Hebei Province, Shandong Province, and Jiangsu Province, while the protection effect of investigation and remediation of farmland outflow was more significant in central and western regions such as Guizhou Province, Chongqing Municipality, and Shaanxi Province. [Conclusion] Farmland satellite monitoring, combined with annual investigation and remediation of farmland outflow, establishes a “monitoring, investigating, remedying, replenishing” regulatory system. It has played a positive role in discovering and curbing farmland loss, as well as remedying and restoring lost farmland. However, due to differences in policy implementation time across regions, the implementation effectiveness have not been fully realized yet.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期：2024-09-14 修回日期：2025-01-20 接受日期：2025-02-20
资助项目：国家自然科学基金项目（42261144750） 面向环境安全的绿色经济理论探索与实践：中国和白俄罗斯耕地利用视角的比较分析
第一作者：屠晓（2000—），女，安徽六安人，硕士研究生，研究方向为乡村土地利用和耕地保护。E-mail：tuxiaogeo@163.com
通信作者：钟太洋（1976—），男，江西于都人，博士，教授，主要从事乡村土地利用与食物地理研究。E-mail：zty@nju.edu.cn