An Ni,Zhang Huilan,Xu Yang,et al.Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in Jinsha River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(04):176-188.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.04.036]
金沙江流域气象干旱与农业干旱的时空演变特征
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in Jinsha River Basin
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409（2025）04-0176-13
- Keywords:
- Jinsha River Basin; meteorological drought; agricultural drought; drought index; spatiotemporal characteristics; drought propagation
- 分类号:
- P429
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]金沙江流域作为西南高山峡谷区的重要生态区域，近年来干旱事件频发，研究其干旱的时空变化特征及传播规律对流域水资源管理、农业生产安全和生态保护具有重要的理论与实践意义。[方法]气象干旱是由于某一区域长期缺乏降水而导致的一种异常现象，而农业干旱是指土壤水分不能满足植物不同生长阶段需水量的一种不良现象。采用金沙江流域1985—2015年40个站点的气象数据及CCI土壤数据集，基于标准化降水指数（SPI）和标准化土壤湿度指数（SSMI）以及Morlet小波分析等方法探究流域内气象干旱和农业干旱多尺度时空特征、周期性变化及传播规律。[结果]（1）年尺度上，流域在气象和农业方面均存在干旱化趋势。在季节尺度上，SPI的变化趋势在4个季节存在较大差异，秋季干旱化趋势最为严重；SSMI的变化趋势没有显著的季节差异，干旱化和湿润化的趋势并不明显。在空间上，气象和农业分别在41.0%和38.5%的区域有干旱化的趋势，均分布在流域南部；41.4%和43.4%的区域有湿润化趋势，均分布在流域北部，呈现“北湿润化南干旱化”的分布格局，干旱的发生有明显的空间性和季节性差异。（2）1985至2015年间，该流域气象干旱主要表现出9a的主周期，而农业干旱则表现为18a的主周期；2000年后干旱频率和强度增加，气象和农业均呈现出向干旱化发展的趋势。（3）从干旱发生频率上看，气象干旱主要集中在流域北部和南部，农业干旱没有明显的空间分布特性。气象干旱在春夏季高发，无旱和轻旱发生频率最高。农业干旱在夏秋两季高发，轻旱发生频率最高。（4）气象干旱向农业干旱的传播时间主要集中在1~2个月，流域高海拔地区（上游）两种干旱之间的传播时间较长，而低海拔地区（下游）的传播时间较短。传播强度具有一定的时空差异性，时间上春、夏季节干旱传播强度最大，DPI>1的区域分别占43.0%和51.0%。空间上流域北部和南部传播强度最大，农业干旱对气象变化的响应更为敏感。[结论]金沙江流域不同地区不同季节气象干旱与农业干旱发生的特征差异明显，未来应更多关注下游地区夏、秋季节的干旱变化，提高该地区的抗旱减灾能力。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] As an important ecological area in the southwest alpine valley region, the Jinsha River Basin has experienced frequent drought events in recent years. Studying the spatiotemporal variation and propagation patterns of these droughts is of significant theoretical and practical importance for water resources management, agricultural production safety and ecological protection in the basin. [Methods] Meteorological drought is defined as an abnormal phenomenon caused by prolonged precipitation deficits in a region, while agricultural drought occurs when soil moisture fails to meet the water demands of plants at different growth stages. Based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI), standardized soil moisture index( SSMI ), and Morlet wavelet analysis, the meteorological data and CCI soil data sets of 40 stations in Jinsha River Basin from 1985 to 2015 were used to explore the multi-scale spatiotemporal characteristics, periodic variations, and propagation patterns of meteorological and agricultural droughts in the basin. [Results](1) At the annual scale, the basin exhibited a trend of aridification in both meteorological and agricultural aspects. At the seasonal scale, the trend of SPI variation showed significant differences across the four seasons, with the trend of aridification being most pronounced in autumn, while the trend of SSMI variation showed no significant seasonal differences, and the trends of aridification and humidification were not evident. Spatially, meteorological and agricultural drought trends were observed in 41.0% and 38.5% of the area, respectively, both primarily in the southern part of the basin； while 41.4% and 43.4% of the area showed a trend of humidification, mainly in the northern part of the basin. This formed a "north humidification and south aridification" distribution pattern, with noticeable spatial and seasonal differences in drought occurrence.(2) From 1985 to 2015, the meteorological drought in the basin primarily exhibited a major period of 9 years, while agricultural drought had a major period of 18 years. After 2000, the drought frequency and intensity increased, with both types trending towards aridification.(3) In terms of drought frequency, meteorological drought was mainly concentrated in the northern and southern parts of the basin, whereas agricultural drought did not show distinct spatial distribution characteristics. Meteorological drought was more frequent in spring and summer, with no-drought and mild-drought events being most common. Agricultural drought occurred mainly in summer and autumn, with the highest frequency of mild drought.(4) The propagation time from meteorological drought to agricultural drought was mainly between 1 to 2 months. High-altitude area(upstream) of the basin had longer propagation time, while low-altitude area(downstream) of the basin had shorter propagation time. The propagation intensity showed certain spatiotemporal differences. Temporally, the drought propagation intensity in spring and summer was the greatest, and the areas with DPI >1 accounted for 43.0% and 51.0%, respectively. Spatially, the propagation intensity was the greatest in the northern and southern parts of the basin, with agricultural drought being more sensitive to meteorological changes. [Conclusion] The characteristics of meteorological drought and agricultural drought in different seasons and in different regions of Jinsha River Basin are obviously different. In the future, more attention should be paid to the drought changes in the downstream areas in summer and autumn to enhance drought resistance and disaster mitigation ability of the region.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期：2024-11-02 修回日期：2024-11-20 接受日期：2024-12-02
资助项目：西南高山峡谷区水土流失综合防治技术与示范（2022YFF130009505）；国家自然科学基金（51309006）
第一作者：安妮（1999—），女，内蒙古赤峰人，硕士，研究方向为流域水文。E-mail：annie990616@163.com
通信作者：张会兰（1984—），女，河北保定人，博士，教授，主要从事流域水沙过程和流域水文研究。E-mail：zhanghl@bjfu.edu.cn