Zhao Yanyan,Zhang Xuan,Xu Yang,et al.Study on the propagation thresholds from meteorological drought to agricultural drought in arid and semi-arid region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(02):234-243.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.02.005]
干旱半干旱地区气象干旱到农业干旱的传播阈值研究
- Title:
- Study on the propagation thresholds from meteorological drought to agricultural drought in arid and semi-arid region
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2025)02-0234-10
- Keywords:
- meteorological drought; agricultural drought; drought propagation; drought thresholds; Copula
- 分类号:
- P429
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]探究不同类型的干旱传播顺序与传播阈值,为干旱监测、预测与早期预警提供科学依据。[方法]以东北亚干旱半干旱区为研究区,采用标准化干旱指数(SPEI)表征气象干旱,采用标准化土壤湿度指数(SSMI)和标准化归一化植被指数(SNDVI)从土壤水和植被角度表征了农业干旱,利用游程理论识别干旱事件及其特征并进行干旱事件匹配,基于Copula函数确定了干旱传播阈值。[结果](1)1982—2014年研究区域干旱呈现加剧趋势,气象干旱和土壤干旱加剧趋势大于植被干旱;(2)气象干旱到土壤干旱的传播率和平均传播时间大于植被干旱,传播次序为气象干旱传播到植被干旱再到土壤干旱;(3)干旱传播阈值随干旱等级的增大而增大,该地区气象干旱到土壤干旱的传播阈值小于植被干旱。[结论]东北亚干旱半干旱区因气象干旱引发的农业干旱威胁粮食安全与生态安全,土壤与植被之间的干旱传播规律与传播阈值存在差异,应因地制宜地制定生态防护及修复措施。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the order of drought propagation and propagation thresholds of different types of droughts, and to provide scientific reference for monitoring, prediction and early warning. [Methods]The arid and semi-arid region of Northeast Asia was taken as the study area. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was used to characterize meteorological drought. Standardized soil moisture index and normalized difference vegetation index were used to characterize agricultural droughts from the perspectives of soil moisture and vegetation. The Run theory was used to identify drought events and their characteristics and to match drought events. The thresholds for drought propagation were determined based on the Copula function. [Results](1)Drought in the study area showed an increasing trend from 1982 to 2014. The increasing trend of meteorological drought and soil moisture drought was greater than that of vegetation drought.(2)The propagation rate and average propagation time of meteorological drought to soil moisture drought was greater than that of vegetation drought, and the sequence of propagation was as follows:meteorological drought propagated to vegetation drought to soil water drought. The thresholds of drought propagation increased with the increase of drought level.(3)The propagation threshold from meteorological drought to soil moisture drought in this area was smaller than that of vegetation drought. [Conclusion]Agricultural drought triggered by meteorological drought in the arid and semi-arid region of Northeast Asia threatens food security and ecological safety. There are differences in drought propagation patterns and propagation thresholds between soils and vegetation, so that ecological protection and restoration measures should be formulated according to local conditions.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-03-20 修回日期:2024-05-22 接受日期:2024-06-27
资助项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于生态和水文响应的干旱传播机制研究”(42271023)
第一作者:赵彦颜(1999—),女,河南濮阳人,硕士,研究方向为生态水文学。E-mail:zhaoyanyan2021@mail.bnu.edu.cn
通信作者:张璇(1984—),女,河南安阳人,博士,高级工程师,主要从事流域水环境管理、绿色发展与环境规划、面源污染与管理控制研究。E-mail:xuan@bnu.edu.cn