Cao Zhenjiang,Ji Guangxing,Yang Ruiting,et al.Multi-temporal scale attribution analysis of actual evapotranspiration and runoff changes in the source area of the Yellow River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(01):209-217.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.01.038]
黄河源实际蒸发和径流变化多时间尺度归因分析
- Title:
- Multi-temporal scale attribution analysis of actual evapotranspiration and runoff changes in the source area of the Yellow River
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2025)01-0209-09
- Keywords:
- Yellow River source area; actual evaporation; runoff; multiple time scales; trend analysis; ABCD hydrological model; monthly time scale Budyko model
- 分类号:
- P339; S161.6
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]全面分析黄河源区变化环境下水文要素(实际蒸发和径流)变化的主要影响因素,为黄河源区水文循环机理研究和生态环境保护提供参考依据。[方法]基于黄河源区1967—2020年的水文气象数据,使用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法在年、季和月时间尺度上分析黄河源区实际蒸发和径流的变化特征,采用ABCD水文模型和月尺度Budyko模型在多时间尺度上定量分离出人类活动和气候变化对黄河源区实际蒸发和径流变化的贡献率。[结果](1)1967—2020年黄河源区实际蒸发量在年、季和月时间尺度上都表现为显著增加的趋势; 径流在年尺度、旱季、8月、9月表现为不显著减少趋势,在雨季和7月表现为不显著增加趋势。(2)在年尺度、旱季、8月和9月,气候变化对流域实际蒸发的影响较大,其对实际蒸发量变化的贡献率分别为59.61%,108.43%,50.71%,58.17%; 在雨季和7月,人类活动对流域实际蒸发的影响较大,其贡献率为62.38%和53.34%。(3)无论是在年尺度、季尺度还是7月、8月、9月,都表现为气候变化对流域径流变化的贡献率较大,贡献率分别为55.58%,56.23%,59.92%,68.70%,51.51%和87.03%。[结论]黄河源区不同时间尺度实际蒸发和径流变化多受气候变化影响较大,但是气候因素和人类活动对它们的贡献率相差较小,未来仍应注重人类活动影响的加剧。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The aims of this study are to comprehensively analyze the main influencing factors of hydrological elements(actual evaporation and runoff)change in the source area of the Yellow River, and to provide reference for the study of hydrological cycle mechanism and ecological environmental protection in this region. [Methods]Based on the hydrometeorological data of the Yellow River source area from 1967 to 2020, the characteristics of the changes in the actual evaporation and runoff of the Yellow River source area on the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales were analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall trend test method. And the ABCD hydrological model and the monthly scale Budyko model were used to quantitatively compute the contributions of human activities and climate change to the changes of actual evaporation and runoff in the source area of the Yellow River at multiple time scales. [Results](1)The actual evapotranspiration in the source area of the Yellow River during the period 1967—2020 showed a significant increasing trend at the annual, seasonal and monthly time scales; runoff showed a non-significant decreasing trend at the annual scale in dry season, August and September, and a non-significant increasing trend in rainy season and July.(2)The influence of climate change on actual evapotranspiration was greater at the annual scale, in dry season, August and September, with contributions of 59.61%, 108.43%, 50.71%, and 58.17%, respectively. Human activities had a greater impact on the change of actual evapotranspiration in the rainy season and July, with contributions of 62.38% and 53.34%, respectively.(3)The dominant factor affecting the change of runoff was climate change, both at an annual scale andseasonal scale, and in July, August, and September, with contributions of 55.58%, 56.23%, 59.92%, 68.70%, 51.51%, and 87.03%, respectively. [Conclusion]The actual evaporation and runoff at different time scales in the source region of the Yellow River are mostly affected by climate change, but the contribution rates of climate factors and human activities to them are relatively small. In the future, attention should be paid to the intensification of human activities.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-02-21 修回日期:2024-03-30
资助项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1700900); 河南省科技攻关项目(222102320041); 2022年河南省高等学校智库研究项目(2022ZKYJ07); 河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目(2023-ZZJH-189); 河南农业大学拔尖人才项目(30501031); 河南农业大学创新训练项目(2022DC156)
第一作者:曹振江(2001—),男,河南驻马店人,硕士研究生,研究方向为土地利用变化下生态水文响应及管理。E-mail:19503837521@163.com
通信作者:姬广兴(1990—),男,河南商丘人,博士,讲师,主要从事变化环境下生态水文研究。E-mail:guangxingji@henau.edu.cn