Chen Zhen,Guo Jie,Zhang Xuewei,et al.Multi-scenario Simulation of Production-Life-Ecology Space in Nanjing Coupled with Landscape Ecological Security Pattern[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(04):383-394.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.009]
耦合景观生态安全格局的南京市“三生”空间多情景模拟
- Title:
- Multi-scenario Simulation of Production-Life-Ecology Space in Nanjing Coupled with Landscape Ecological Security Pattern
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)04-0383-12
- Keywords:
- production-life-ecological space; landscape ecological security pattern; FLUS model; scenario simulation
- 分类号:
- F301.2
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]阐明区域景观生态安全格局与“三生”空间多情景模拟的耦合过程,为维护区域生态安全、优化国土空间发展格局提供参考。[方法]将包含防洪、水土保持、生物保护和游憩等重要生态过程的综合景观生态安全格局作为约束条件耦合到FLUS模型中,设置农业空间优先、工业和生活空间优先、生态空间优先和三生空间均衡发展4类情景,预测了规划目标年(2025年和2035年)不同情景下“三生”空间结构与布局状况。[结果]南京市低、中、高安全水平生态用地规模分别为1 537.41,2 576.85,2 928.59 km2,占比23.34%,39.12%,44.46%; 相较其他3种情景,“三生”空间均衡发展情景下,维持中等水平的生态安全,各类空间变化趋势整体较为缓和,到2025年和2035年,生产空间基本维持现有水平,仅增加2.09,2.02 km2,生活空间增幅相对有限,分别为28.55,46.27 km2,生态空间缩减幅度有所放缓,分别为30.64,48.29 km2,该情景在满足经济发展对建设用地需求的同时,也能兼顾粮食安全和生态保护的要求,有利于促进经济、社会和生态全面协调可持续发展。[结论]以“三生”空间均衡发展为目标优化国土空间发展格局,有利于实现生产空间集约高效、生活空间宜居适度、生态空间山清水秀。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The aims of this study are to clarify the coupling process between the landscape ecological security pattern and the multi-scenario simulation of the production-life-ecology space, and to provide reference for maintaining regional ecological security and optimizing the spatial development pattern of land. [Methods]As a constraint condition, landscape ecological security pattern was coupled to FLUS model. Four scenarios were set up by adjusting the cost of land conversion under different scenarios to predict the spatial structure and layout of production-life-ecology in target years(2025 and 2035). [Results]The scales of ecological land under low, medium and high security levels in Nanjing are 1 537.41, 2 576.85, 2 928.59 km2, respectively, the proportions to the total land area are 23.34%, 39.12% and 44.46%, respectively. Compared to the other scenarios, the balanced development scenario maintains a certain degree of ecological security, various space changes tend to moderate. By 2025 and 2035, production space will only increase in 2.09 km2 and 2.02 km2, living space will increase in 28.55 km2 and 46.27 km2, and ecological space will decrease in 30.64 km2 and 48.29 km2. This scenario meets the demand of economic development for construction land, gives consideration to food security and ecological protection and promots the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of economy, society and ecology. [Conclusion]Based on production-life-ecological balanced development, optimizing the development pattern of national land space is conducive to realizing intensive and efficient production space, livable and moderate living space, and beautiful ecological space.
参考文献/References:
[1]杨帆,熊素文,雷婷,等.城镇化进程中洞庭湖区“三生空间”格局演变与驱动机制[J].生态学报,2022,42(17):7043-7055.
Yang F, Xiong S W, Lei T, et al. Evolution of the “production-living-ecological space” pattern and driving mechanisms in the Dongting Lake area during the urbanization process[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022,42(17):7043-7055.
[2]冀正欣,刘超,许月卿,等.基于土地利用功能测度的“三生”空间识别与优化调控[J].农业工程学报,2020,36(18):222-231,315.
Ji Z X, Liu C, Xu Y Q, et al. Identification and optimal regulation of the production-living-ecological space based on quantitative land use functions[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2020,36(18):222-231,315.
[3]张广海,刘二恋,董跃蕾.我国“三生空间”演变特征及其旅游效应研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2023,39(3):130-136.
Zhang G H, Liu E L, Dong Y L. Evolution characteristics and tourism effect of production-living-ecological space in China[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2023,39(3):130-136.
[4]倪维秋,夏源,赵宁宁.乡村地域“三生空间”功能演化与耦合协调度研究:以黑龙江省为例[J].中国土地科学,2022,36(9):111-119.
Ni W Q, Xia Y, Zhao N N. Functional evolution and coupling coordination measurement of production-living-ecological space in rural areas:Taking Heilongjiang Province as an example[J]. China Land Science, 2022,36(9):111-119.
[5]金贵,郭柏枢,成金华,等.基于资源效率的国土空间布局及支撑体系框架[J].地理学报,2022,77(3):534-546.
Jin G, Guo B S, Cheng J H, et al. Layout optimization and support system of territorial space:An analysis framework based on resource efficiency[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022,77(3):534-546.
[6]刘金花,丛中笑,王治军.基于三生空间转型的生态环境效应多尺度研究:以黄河流域山东段为例[J].中国环境科学,2023,43(5):2519-2530.
Liu J H, Cong Z X, Wang Z J. Ecological effects of production-living-ecological space transformation at multi-scales:A case study on the Shandong Section of the Yellow River Basin[J]. China Environmental Science, 2023,43(5):2519-2530.
[7]张振龙,侯琰珍,孙鸿鹄,等.乡镇街道尺度国土“三生”空间功能评价及协调关系[J].自然资源学报,2022,37(11):2898-2914.
Zhang Z L, Hou Y Z, Sun H H, et al. Study on the evaluation of the spatial function and coordination relationship of the territorial “production-living-ecological” spaces at the township-street scale[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2022,37(11):2898-2914.
[8]吴文俊,张雪微,郭杰,等.“多目标”需求下扬州市土地利用布局优化[J].生态学报,2022,42(19):7952-7965.
Wu W J, Zhang X W, Guo J, et al. Optimization of land use layout in Yangzhou City for multi-objective demand[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022,42(19):7952-7965.
[9]Liang X, Guan Q F, Clarke K C, et al. Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model:A case study in Wuhan, China[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2021,85:101569.
[10]袁雪松,周俊,胡蓓蓓,等.基于FLUS模型粤港澳大湾区“三生空间”多情景模拟预测[J].地理科学,2023,43(3):564-574.
Yuan X S, Zhou J, Hu B B, et al. Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of ecological-productive-living spaces in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area based on FLUS model[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2023,43(3):564-574.
[11]Peng J, Zhao S Q, Dong J Q, et al. Applying ant colony algorithm to identify ecological security patterns in megacities[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2019,117:214-222.
[12]章欣欣,栾海军,花利忠.基于蜂群算法的城市土地利用变化建模[J].地理科学,2016,36(3):359-366.
Zhang X X, Luan H J, Hua L Z. Urban land use change modelling based on artificial bee colony algorithm[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016,36(3):359-366.
[13]彭建,李慧蕾,刘焱序,等.雄安新区生态安全格局识别与优化策略[J].地理学报,2018,73(4):701-710.
Peng J, Li H L, Liu Y X, et al. Identification and optimization of ecological security pattern in Xiongan New Area[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(4):701-710.
[14]Peng J, Pan Y J, Liu Y X, et al. Linking ecological degradation risk to identify ecological security patterns in a rapidly urbanizing landscape[J]. Habitat International, 2018,71:110-124.
[15]梁保平,雷艳,覃业努,等.快速城市化背景下广西典型城市景观空间格局动态比较研究[J].生态学报,2018,38(12):4526-4536.
Liang B P, Lei Y, Qin Y N, et al. Comparison of changing landscape patterns in the rapidly urbanizing cities of Guangxi[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2018,38(12):4526-4536.
[16]闫玉玉,孙彦伟,刘敏.基于生态安全格局的上海国土空间生态修复关键区域识别与修复策略[J].应用生态报,2022,33(12):3369-3378.
Yan Y Y, Sun Y W, Liu M. Identification and restoration strategy of key areas for territorial space ecological restoration in Shanghai, China based on ecological security pattern[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2022,33(12):3369-3378.
[17]Zhou D, Song W. Identifying ecological corridors and networks in mountainous areas[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2021,18(9):4797.
[18]刘纪远,张增祥,徐新良,等.21世纪初中国土地利用变化的空间格局与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(12):1411-1420.
Liu J Y, Zhang Z X, Xu X L, et al. Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China in the early 21st century[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009,64(12):1411-1420.
[19]韩会然,杨成凤,宋金平.北京市土地利用变化特征及驱动机制[J].经济地理,2015,35(5):148-154,197.
Han H R, Yang C F, Song J P. The spatial-temporal characteristic of land use change in Beijing and its driving mechanism[J]. Economic Geography, 2015,35(5):148-154,197.
[20]彭建,赵会娟,刘焱序,等.区域生态安全格局构建研究进展与展望[J].地理研究,2017,36(3):407-419.
Peng J, Zhao H J, Liu Y X, et al. Research progress and prospect on regional ecological security pattern construction[J]. Geographical Research, 2017,36(3):407-419.
[21]王思易,欧名豪.基于景观安全格局的建设用地管制分区[J].生态学报,2013,33(14):4425-4435.
Wang S Y, Ou M H. Zoning for regulating of construction land based on landscape security pattern[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2013,33(14):4425-4435.
[22]杨清可,王磊,李永乐,等.基于景观生态安全格局构建的城镇空间扩展模式研究:以江苏沿海地区为例[J].地理科学,2021,41(5):737-746.
Yang Q K, Wang L, Li Y L, et al. Urban spatial expansion mode based on the construction of landscape ecological security pattern:A case of the coastal area of Jiangsu[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2021,41(5):737-746.
[23]王旭,马伯文,李丹,等.基于FLUS模型的湖北省生态空间多情景模拟预测[J].自然资源学报,2020,35(1):230-242.
Wang X, Ma B W, Li D, et al. Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of ecological space in Hubei Province based on FLUS model[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020,35(1):230-242.
[24]Liu X P, Liang X, Li X, et al. A future land use simulation model(FLUS)for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2017,168:94-116.
[25]王保盛,廖江福,祝薇,等.基于历史情景的FLUS模型邻域权重设置:以闽三角城市群2030年土地利用模拟为例[J].生态学报,2019,39(12):4284-4298.
Wang B S, Liao J F, Zhu W, et al. The weight of neighborhood setting of the FLUS model based on a historical scenario:A case study of land use simulation of urban agglomeration of the Golden Triangle of Southern Fujian in 2030[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2019,39(12):4284-4298.
相似文献/References:
[1]陈钱钱,舒晓波,曾凡彬.江西省三生空间结构时空格局的多尺度分析[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(04):385.
CHEN Qianqian,SHU Xiaobo,ZENG Fanbin.Multi-Scale Analysis of the Spatio-temporal Pattern of the Spatial Structure of Ecology-Production-Living Space in Jiangxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(04):385.
[2]冯 涛,石培基,张学斌,等.河谷型城市“三生”空间竞争与生态环境效应——以兰州市为例[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(03):229.
FENG Tao,SHI Peiji,ZHANG Xuebin,et al.Competition and Eco-environmental Effect of Ecological-Production-Living Spaces in Valley City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(04):229.
[3]李媛洁,叶长盛,黄小兰.基于CLUE-S模型的南昌市“三生”空间时空演变及情景模拟研究[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(05):325.
LI Yuanjie,YE Changsheng,HUANG Xiaolan.Temporal-Spatial Evolution and Scenario Simulation of Production-Living-Ecological Space in Nanchang Based on CLUE-S Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(04):325.
[4]邓 彤,罗志军,曾建玲.基于适宜性和空间功能值的德兴市矿粮复合区“三生”空间优化研究[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(01):395.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.01.022]
Deng Tong,Luo Zhijun,Zeng Jianling.Study on the Spatial Optimization of ‘Production-Living-Ecology' in Mine-Grain Complex Area of Dexing City Based on Suitability and Spatial Function Value[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(04):395.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.01.022]
[5]颜俊君,佟 涛,马泉来,等.近30年来河南省国土“三生”空间转型特征及其情景模拟[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(04):374.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.027]
Yan Junjun,Tong Tao,Ma Quanlai,et al.Spatial Transformation Characteristics and Scenario Simulation for ‘Production-Living-Ecology' Space of Henan Province's Land in the Last 30 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(04):374.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.027]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-08-16 修回日期:2023-09-02
资助项目:教育部人文社会科学研究项目(23YJC630019); 国家自然科学基金(72174089); 江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目(2021SJA0088); 南京邮电大学人文社会科学研究资助项目(NYY221037)
第一作者:陈振(1990—),男,安徽宣城人,博士,讲师,主要从事土地利用与管理研究。E-mail:chenzhen714@njupt.edu.cn