Cui Xinlei,Wang Yanrong,Ma Yanru.Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Reduction—Pollution Reduction—Green Expansion—Economic Growth Coupling Coordination and Its Influencing Factors in the Yellow River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(04):275-287.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.018]
黄河流域降碳—减污—扩绿—增长耦合协调的动态演进及其影响因素
- Title:
- Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Reduction—Pollution Reduction—Green Expansion—Economic Growth Coupling Coordination and Its Influencing Factors in the Yellow River Basin
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)04-0275-13
- 关键词:
- 降碳—减污—扩绿—增长; 时空耦合; 黄河流域
- Keywords:
- carbon reduction-pollution reduction-green expansion-economic growth; spatiotemporal coupling; Yellow River Basin
- 分类号:
- X16; X37
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]探究黄河流域环境保护与经济发展的耦合协调性及其影响因素,为全流域高质量发展提供理论参考。[方法]基于耦合协调模型、Dagum基尼系数、马尔科夫链和地理加权回归模型,研究分析了2009—2020年黄河流域降碳—减污—扩绿—增长的时空耦合动态演进及其影响因子。[结果](1)黄河流域降碳—减污—扩绿—增长的耦合协调度总体呈现波动中上升趋势,耦合协调度值空间上呈现下游地区最大,中游地区次之,上游地区最小。(2)上游地区耦合协调度水平的地区内差距明显高于中下游地区,地区间差距由大到小依次为上游与下游>上游与中游>中游与下游,地区差距主要来源于地区内差距和超变密度差距。(3)降碳—减污—扩绿—增长系统的耦合协调度状态之间流动性较低,具有维持原有状态的稳定性,且短时间内难以实现跨越式的发展演进。(4)产业结构优化能够有效促进黄河流域耦合协调发展,政府干预对大部分省区耦合协调发展促进作用明显,市场需求与技术成果有效结合才能更进一步促进黄河流域耦合协调度的提升。[结论]黄河流域降碳—减污—扩绿—增长的时空耦合整体呈上升趋势,影响此系统耦合协调度的因素较为复杂,未来应从优化产业结构、加强技术成果转化等方面,促进黄河流域降碳—减污—扩绿—增长协同发展。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the coupling and coordination of environmental protection and economic development in the Yellow River Basin and its influencing factors, so as to provide a theoretical reference for the high-quality development of the whole basin. [Methods]Based on the coupling coordination model, Dagum Gini coefficient, Markov chain and geographically weighted regression model, the spatiotemporal coupling dynamic evolution of carbon reduction-pollution reduction-green expansion-economic growth in the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2020 and its influencing factors were studied and analyzed. [Results](1)The coupling coordination degree of carbon reduction-pollution reduction-green expansion-economic growth in the Yellow River Basin showed generally a fluctuating upward trend. The coupling coordination degree was the largest in the lower reaches, followed by the middle reaches, and the least in the upper reaches.(2)The intraregional gap in the coupling coordination level of the upper reaches was significantly higher than that in the middle and lower reaches of the region. The gap between regions followed the order:upper and middle>upper and lower>middle and lower. The gap among regions and intensity of transvariation was the major source of the overall gap.(3)The coupling coordination degree of carbon reduction-pollution reduction-economic green expansion-economic growth system had the low fluidity,which had the stability of maintaining the original state. It was difficult to achieve leapfrog development evolution in a short period.(4)Industrial structure optimization can effectively promote the coupling coordinated development of the Yellow River Basin. Government intervention has an obvious role in promoting the coupling coordinated development of most provinces and regions. The effective combination of market demand and technological achievements can further improve the coupling coordination degree of the Yellow River Basin. [Conclusion]The overall spatiotemporal coupling of carbon reduction-pollution reduction-green expansion-economic growth in the Yellow River Basin is on the rise. The factors affecting the coordination degree of this system coupling are relatively complex. In the future, efforts should be made to optimize the industrial structure, to strengthen the transformation of technological achievements, and to promote the coordinated development of carbon reduction-pollution reduction-green expansion-economic growth in the Yellow River Basin.
参考文献/References:
[1]陈明华,岳海珺,郝云飞,等.黄河流域生态效率的空间差异、动态演进及驱动因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2021,38(9):25-44.
Chen M H, Yue H J, Hao Y F, et al. The spatial disparity, dynamic evolution and driving factors of ecological efficiency in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2021,38(9):25-44.
[2]方传棣,成金华,赵鹏大.大保护战略下长江经济带矿产-经济-环境耦合协调度时空演化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2019,29(6):65-73.
Fang C D, Cheng J H, Zhao P D. Temporal and spatial evolution of mineral-economic-environment coordination degree in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under the Great Protection Strategy[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2019,29(6):65-73.
[3]于法稳,方兰.黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的若干问题[J].中国软科学,2020(6):85-95.
Yu F W, Fang L. Issues regarding the ecological protection and high-quality development of Yellow River Basin[J]. China Soft Science, 2020(6):85-95.
[4]冯薇,赵荣钦,谢志祥,等.碳中和目标下土地利用碳排放效率及其时空格局:以黄河流域72个地级市为例[J].中国土地科学,2023,37(1):102-113.
Feng W, Zhao R Q, Xie Z X, et al. Land use carbon emission efficiency and its spatial-temporal pattern under carbon neutral target:A case study of 72 cities in the Yellow River Basin[J]. China Land Science, 2023,37(1):102-113.
[5]徐辉,王亿文,张宗艳,等.黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合机理及协调发展时空演变[J].资源科学,2021,43(12):2526-2537.
Xu H, Wang Y W, Zhang Z Y, et al. Coupling mechanism of water-energy-food and spatiotemporal evolution of coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Resources Science, 2021,43(12):2526-2537.
[6]张雪薇,杜凤莲,申晓燕,等.黄河流域经济-能源-生态-科技耦合协调发展时空格局及其影响因素[J].安全与环境学报,2023,23(7):2545-2556.
Zhang X W, Du F L, Shen X Y, et al. Coupling coordination development and spatial differentiation of economy-energy-ecology-science and technology in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2023,23(7):2545-2556.
[7]张学良,贾文星,吴胜男.黄河流域高质量发展的时空跃迁及驱动因素分析[J].中国人口科学,2022(3):72-85,127-128.
Zhang X L, Jia W X,Wu S N. Research on the temporal-spatial transition and driving mechanism of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2022(3):72-85, 127-128.
[8]苗长虹,张佰发.黄河流域高质量发展分区分级分类调控策略研究[J].经济地理,2021,41(10):143-153.
Miao C H, Zhang B F. Regulation strategy of zoning-gradation-classification for high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Economic Geography, 2021,41(10):143-153.
[9]石涛.黄河流域生态保护与经济高质量发展耦合协调度及空间网络效应[J].区域经济评论,2020(3):25-34.
Shi T. Spatial correlation network and regional connected effect of coupling coordination degree between ecological protection and high-quality economic development in the Yellow River regions[J]. Regional Economic Review, 2020(3):25-34.
[10]魏敏,李书昊.新时代中国经济高质量发展水平的测度研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,35(11):3-20.
Wei M, Li S H. Study on the measurement of economic high-quality development level in China in the new era[J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2018,35(11):3-20.
[11]韩梦涛,涂建军,徐桂萍,等.黄河流域水域生态系统服务与经济发展时空协调性[J].中国沙漠,2021,41(4):167-176.
Han M T, Tu J J, Xu G P, et al. Spatio-temporal coordination between aquatic ecosystem services and economic development in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2021,41(4):167-176.
[12]Tollefsen P, Rypdal K, Torvanger A, et al. Air pollution policies in Europe:Efficiency gains from integrating climate effects with damage costs to health and crops[J]. Environmental Science & Policy, 2009,12(7):870-881.
[13]刘杰,刘紫薇,焦珊珊,等.中国城市减碳降霾的协同效应分析[J].城市与环境研究,2019,6(4):80-97.
Liu J, Liu Z W, Jiao S S, et al. Co-effect of CO2 mitigation and PM2.5 control in Chinese cities[J]. Urban and Environmental Studies, 2019,6(4):80-97.
[14]王兆峰,李竹,吴卫.长江经济带不同等级城市碳排放的时空演变及其影响因素[J].环境科学研究,2022,35(10):2273-2281.
Wang Z F, Li Z, Wu W. Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions in different grade cities in the Yangtze River economic belt[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2022,35(10):2273-2281.
[15]郑航,叶阿忠.空间关联网络结构特征的减排效应:基于城市群视角[J].环境科学,2022,43(10):4401-4407.
Zheng H, Ye A Z. Carbon emission reduction effect of spatial correlation network structure characteristics:From the perspective of urban agglomeration[J]. Environmental Science, 2022,43(10):4401-4407.
[16]Burtraw D, Krupnick A, Palmer K, et al. Ancillary benefits of reduced air pollution in the US from moderate greenhouse gas mitigation policies in the electricity sector[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2003,45(3):650-673.
[17]Liu J Y, Woodward R T, Zhang Y J. Has carbon emissions trading reduced PM2.5 in China[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2021,55(10):6631-6643.
[18]Yang X, Teng F. Air quality benefit of China's mitigation target to peak its emission by 2030[J]. Climate Policy, 2018,18(1):99-110.
[19]Gu A L, Teng F, Feng X Z. Effects of pollution control measures on carbon emission reduction in China:Evidence from the 11th and 12th Five-Year Plans[J]. Climate Policy, 2018,18(2):198-209.
[20]郑石明,何裕捷,邹克.气候政策协同:机制与效应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2021,31(8):1-12.
Zheng S M, He Y J, Zou K. Climate policy synergy:Mechanism and effect[J]. China Population,Resources and Environment, 2021,31(8):1-12.
[21]Wang B, Wang Y F, Zhao Y Q. Collaborative governance mechanism of climate change and air pollution:Evidence from China[J]. Sustainability, 2021,13(12):6785.
[22]贾洪文,樊树钢.黄河流域绿色金融与经济高质量发展耦合协调研究[J].生态经济,2023,39(10):89-98.
Jia H W, Fan S G. Study on the coupling and coordination of green finance and high quality economic development in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Ecological Economy, 2023,39(10):89-98.
[23]李荣杰,李娜,张静,等.地区能源结构低碳化差异的收敛机制及影响因素:基于加权多维向量夹角指数[J].统计与信息论坛,2020,35(10):90-99.
Li R J, Li N, Zhang J, et al. Regional differences convergence of low-carbon energy structure and influencing factors:Based on weighted multi-dimensional vector angle[J]. Statistics & Information, 2020,35(10):90-99.
[24]刘建国,张文忠.中国区域全要素生产率的空间溢出关联效应研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(5):522-530.
Liu J G, Zhang W Z. The spatial spillover effects of regional total factor productivity in China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014,34(5):522-530.
[25]姚洋,崔静远.中国人力资本的测算研究[J].中国人口科学,2015(1):70-78,127.
Yao Y, Cui J Y. Estimation of China's human capital stock[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2015(1):70-78,127.
[26]张康洁,于法稳,李福夺.中国农村信息化、农业产业化与乡村生态化耦合协调发展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2023,33(6):182-195.
Zhang K J, Yu F W, Li F D. Coupling coordinated development of rural informatization, agricultural industrialization, and rural ecologicalization in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2023,33(6):182-195.
[27]张永姣,丁少斌,方创琳.中国数字经济产业发展的时空分异及空间收敛性分析:基于企业大数据的考察[J].经济地理,2023,43(3):120-130.
Zhang Y J, Ding S B, Fang C L. Spatiotemporal variation and spatial convergence of China's digital economy industry development:Based on the big data of enterprise[J]. Economic Geography, 2023,43(3):120-130.
[28]黄纪强,祁毓.环境税能否倒逼产业结构优化与升级:基于环境“费改税”的准自然实验[J].产业经济研究,2022(2):1-13.
Huang J Q, Qi Y. Can environmental taxes force industrial structure optimization and upgrading:A quasi-natural experiment based on environmental “Fee to Tax”[J]. Industrial Economics Research, 2022(2):1-13.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-08-25 修回日期:2023-10-10
资助项目:国家自然科学基金(42361046); 教育部人文社会科学研究资助项目(22YJA630010); 内蒙古自治区自然科学基金面上项目(2022MS07023); 内蒙古自治区高等学校“青年科技英才支持项目”(NJYT23123); 内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费(20700-54220384)
第一作者:崔新蕾(1985—),女,内蒙古包头人,博士,教授,主要从事土地经济与管理、区域经济与政策评估研究。E-mail:cuixinlei2016@163.com