Li Huyue,Dai Quanhou,Hu Zeyin,et al.Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Urban Agglomeration of Central Guizhou[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(04):248-257.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.034]
黔中城市群生态系统服务价值评估及预测
- Title:
- Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Urban Agglomeration of Central Guizhou
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)04-0248-10
- Keywords:
- urban agglomeration of central Guizhou; land use; PLUS model; ESV
- 分类号:
- X171.1; F301.2
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]探究生态系统服务价值(ESV)对土地利用变化的响应,提高黔中地区生态系统服务功能的可持续性。[方法]以黔中城市群为例,利用统计分析和空间自相关法评估了2000—2020年黔中城市群的土地利用变化及ESV时空演变特征,并耦合PLUS模型预测了2030年不同发展情景下土地利用空间格局及其ESV变化。[结果](1)2000—2020年研究区土地利用变化主要表现为耕地、草地向建设用地和水域转化,受土地利用变化的影响,2000—2020年研究区ESV增加了11.28亿元,呈波动上升趋势,水域和建设用地面积扩张是引起研究区ESV变化的主要原因。(2)2000—2020年ESV减少区主要分布在经济发展较好的中心城区,增加区主要分布在河流、湖泊等水域附近。空间自相关分析表明,研究区高集聚区和低集聚区分布范围较广且集聚性较强,高高集聚区主要集中在研究区西北部,低低集聚区主要集中在研究区中部。(3)2030年自然情景、耕地保护和生态保护情景下的ESV分别为710.22亿元、705.33亿元、720.62亿元,生态保护情景下对研究区ESV增长具有明显的积极作用。[结论]未来黔中城市群在生态环境方面,可继续加强退耕还林政策提高生态系统服务价值,在城市发展方面,应该制定更加合理的综合发展战略,在经济发展的同时又能兼顾生态保护。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the response of ecosystem service value(ESV)to land use change, and to improve the sustainability of ecosystem service function in central Guizhou. [Methods]In this study, urban agglomeration of central Guizhou was taken as an example. Statistical analysis and spatial autocorrelation method were used to assess the land use change and ESV spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of urban agglomeration of central Guizhou from 2000 to 2020, and the spatial pattern of land use and its ESV change under different development scenarios in 2030 was predicted by coupling with PLUS model. [Results](1)The land use change in the study area from 2000 to 2020 was mainly manifested in the transformation of cropland and grassland to construction land and waters, and affected by the land use change, the ESV of the study area increased by 11.28 hundred million yuan from 2000 to 2020, showing a fluctuating upward trend, and the expansion of waters and construction land area was the main reason for the change of ESV in the study area.(2)The decrease area of ESV from 2000 to 2020 was mainly distributed in the center urban area with better economic development, and the increase area was mainly distributed near rivers, lakes and other waters. The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high and low agglomeration areas in the study area were widely distributed and strongly clustered, with the high and high agglomeration areas mainly concentrated in the northwestern part of the study area and the low and low agglomeration areas mainly concentrated in the central part of the study area.(3)The ESV under the nature scenario, cropland protection and ecological protection scenarios in 2030 are 710.22 hundred million, 705.33 hundred million and 720.62 hundred million yuan, respectively, and the ecological protection scenario has an obvious positive effect on the growth of ESV in the study area. [Conclusion]In the future, the urban agglomeration of central Guizhou can continue to strengthen the policy of returning farmland to forests to improve the value of ecosystem services in terms of ecological environment, and it should formulate a more reasonable and comprehensive development strategy in terms of urban development, which can take into account ecological protection while the economy develops.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-09-15 修回日期:2023-10-07
资助项目:国家自然科学基金“喀斯特碳酸盐岩与碎屑岩交互区坡面土壤侵蚀过程与机理”(42167044)
第一作者:李胡跃(1998—),男,贵州毕节人,硕士研究生,研究方向为水土保持与生态恢复。E-mail:3011221452@qq.com
通信作者:戴全厚(1969—),男,陕西长武人,博士,教授,主要从事水土保持与生态修复研究。E-mail:qhdairiver@163.com