Zhang Zelin,Zhou Xia,Zhou Yuxi.Spatiotemporal Coupling and Driving Factors of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Grain Production Resilience in the Lower Reaches of Yellow River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(03):412-420,431.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.003]
黄河下游水资源承载力与粮食生产韧性时空耦合及驱动因素
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal Coupling and Driving Factors of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Grain Production Resilience in the Lower Reaches of Yellow River
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)03-0412-09
- Keywords:
- lower reaches of the Yellow River; water resources protection; food security; coupling coordination degree; geographic detector
- 分类号:
- F323.21
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]探究黄河下游水资源承载力与粮食生产韧性协同发展水平,为推动水资源保护利用和粮食生产协调发展提供新的政策视角。[方法]基于水资源承载力和粮食生产韧性评价指标体系,采用熵权法测算2010—2021年黄河下游水资源承载力和粮食生产韧性指数,运用耦合协调度模型和核密度估计分析两者协调发展时空演变特征,同时借助地理探测器探究影响两者耦合协调度的主导因子和交互因子。[结果]时间维度上,水资源承载力与粮食生产韧性耦合协调度由0.484 0上升至0.747 6,耦合协调度类型由濒临失调上升至中级协同; 空间维度上,两者耦合协调度最高值出现在山东省济南市,最低值集中在河南省境内; 年降水量、居民生活用水量、城市绿地面积、耕地面积和财政支农力度5项因子是两者协调发展的主导驱动因子,各主导因子的交互作用解释力表现呈现为双因子增强或非线性增强的特征。[结论]黄河下游水资源承载力和粮食生产韧性耦合协调度逐年上升并逐渐呈现出“东高西低”的空间分布特征,同时两大系统发展日趋紧密,交互作用逐渐增强。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to explore the coordinated development level of water resources carrying capacity and grain production resilience in the lower Yellow River, and to provide a new policy perspective for promoting the coordinated development of water resources protection and utilization and grain production. [Methods] Based on the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity and grain production toughness, the index of water resources carrying capacity and grain production toughness in the lower reaches of the Yellow River during 2010—2021 was estimated by entropy weight method, and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of their coordinated development were analyzed by coupling coordination degree model and kernel density estimation. At the same time, the dominant factors and interaction factors affecting the coupling coordination degree of the two were explored by means of geographic detectors. [Results] In time dimension, the coupling coordination degree between water resources carrying capacity and grain production toughness increased from 0.484 0 to 0.747 6, and the coupling coordination type increased from near imbalance to intermediate coordination. In terms of spatial dimension, the highest value of the coupling coordination degree between the two was found in Jinan, Shandong Province, and the lowest value concentrated in Henan Province. Annual precipitation, residential water consumption, urban green area, cultivated land area and financial support to agriculture were the main driving factors on the coordinated development of the two, and the explanatory power of the interaction of the leading factors showed the characteristics of double factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement. [Conclusion] The coupling coordination degree of water resources carrying capacity and grain production toughness in the lower reaches of the Yellow River increased year by year and gradually showed a spatial distribution of high level in the east and low level in the west. At the same time, the development of the two systems was increasingly close, and the interaction was gradually enhanced.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-07-16 修回日期:2023-07-25
资助项目:国家社科资助项目“水资源非农化对粮食生产脆弱性的影响及调控政策研究”(21BJY130); 山东省乡村振兴研究课题(XCZX2023105)
第一作者:张泽琳(1990—),男,山东济宁人,硕士研究生,主要从事农业经济与政策研究。E-mail:379742550@qq.com
周霞(1971—),女,新疆焉耆人,教授,硕士生导师,主要从事农业资源与环境管理研究。E-mail:sofia612@sdau.edu.cn
通信作者:周玉玺(1969—),男,山东潍坊人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:农业资源与环境管理。E-mail:sofia612@163.com