Yu Zhou,Li Mingyu,Qian Yuyang,et al.Land Use Change and Its Ecological Effects in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on CA_Markov Model with Multiple Scenarios Simulation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(03):363-372.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.023]
基于CA_Markov模型多情景模拟的三峡库区土地利用变化及其生态环境效应
- Title:
- Land Use Change and Its Ecological Effects in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on CA_Markov Model with Multiple Scenarios Simulation
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)03-0363-10
- 关键词:
- 土地利用变化; 生态环境质量; CA_Markov模型; 情景模拟; 三峡库区
- Keywords:
- land use change; ecological environment quality; CA_Markov model; scenario simulation; Three Gorges Reservoir Area
- 分类号:
- F301.2; X171.1
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]探究三峡库区土地利用与生态环境质量时空演变特征,揭示土地利用变化引起的生态环境效应,为研究区土地资源整合和生态环境保护提供依据。[方法]选取2000年、2010年、2020年土地利用遥感监测数据,采用CA_Markov模型分别预测自然变化情景(NCS)和生态保护情景(EPS)下2030年土地利用空间格局,并通过转移矩阵、生态环境质量指数、地统计分析、生态贡献率等方法,对三峡库区长时间序列土地利用变化及生态环境效应进行定量分析。[结果](1)2000—2020年,三峡库区土地利用类型间转化明显,其中耕地转向建设用地,草地转向林地和耕地,建设用地面积增长量1 321.56 km2,增长率达275.02%。(2)模拟结果显示2030年生态保护情景下林地、草地面积比例均高于自然变化情景,而建设用地扩大规模相比自然变化情景显著减少。(3)三峡库区生态环境质量呈现出自西向东逐渐升高的阶梯式分布格局,2000—2030年其生态环境质量略微下降,由2000年的0.547 9降低至2030年的0.533 6。(4)2000—2030年,降低三峡库区生态环境质量的两大主导因素是林、草地转为耕地,提高其生态环境质量的主要有利因素是耕地转为林地,生态贡献率比重超过70%。[结论]退耕还林还草和城市快速发展使三峡库区同时存在生态改善与生态恶化,但总的来看,研究区生态环境质量表现为改善略小于恶化的态势,建设用地、林地、耕地、草地之间的转化是其主要原因。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use and ecological environment quality in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, to reveal the ecological environment effects caused by land use changes, and to provide a basis for land resource integration and ecological environment protection in the study area. [Methods] Remote sensing monitoring data of land use in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were selected to predict the spatial pattern of land use in 2030 under the Natural Change Scenario(NCS)and the Ecological Protection Scenario(EPS)using the CA_Markov model, respectively, and to quantitatively analyze the long time series of land use changes and ecological and environmental effects of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area by transfer matrix, ecological environment quality index, geostatistical analysis, and ecological contribution rate. [Results](1)From 2000 to 2020, the Three Gorges Reservoir Area had obvious transformation between land use types, in which cropland shifted to construction land, grassland shifted to forest land and cropland, and the growth of construction land area amounted to 1 321.56 km2, with a growth rate of 275.02%.(2)The simulation results show that the proportions of forestland and grassland area under the ecological protection scenario in 2030 will be higher than those under the natural change scenario, while the expansion of construction land significantly reduces compared with the natural change scenario.(3)The ecological quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area shows a stepped distribution pattern of gradual increase from west to east, and its ecological quality slightly decreases from 2000 to 2030, from 0.547 9 in 2000 to 0.533 6 in 2030.(4)From 2000 to 2030, the two dominant factors reducing the ecological quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area are the conversion of forests and grasslands to croplands, and the main favorable factor improving its ecological quality is the conversion of croplands to forests, with a proportion of ecological contribution exceeding 70%. [Conclusion] The return of farmland to forests and grasslands and rapid urban development have led to both ecological improvement and ecological deterioration in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, but in general, the ecological environment quality in the study area shows a trend of improvement slightly less than deterioration, and the transformation between construction land, forestland, cropland and grassland is the main reason for this.
参考文献/References:
[1] Du X, Huang Z. Ecological and environmental effects of land use change in rapid urbanization:The case of hangzhou, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2017,81(10):243-251.
[2] 魏伟,周陶,郭泽呈,等.基于遥感指数的干旱内陆河流域土地生态敏感性时空演变特征:以石羊河流域武威市为例[J].生态学杂志,2020,39(9):3068-3079.
Wei W, Zhou T, Guo Z C, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution of land ecological sensitivity in arid inland river basin based on remote sensing index:a case of Wuwei City in Shiyang River basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2020,39(9):3068-3079.
[3] 郭泽呈,魏伟,石培基,等.中国西北干旱区土地沙漠化敏感性时空格局[J].地理学报,2020,75(9):1948-1965.
Guo Z C, Wei W, Shi P J, et al. Spatiotemporal changes of land desertification sensitivity in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020,75(9):1948-1965.
[4] De Groot R S, Wilson M A, Boumans R M J. A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services[J]. Ecological Economics, 2002,41(3):393-408.
[5] Metzger M J, Rounsevell M D A, Acosta M L, et al. The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 2006,114(1):69-85.
[6] Li R Q, Dong M, Cui J Y, et al. Quantification of the impact of land-use changes on ecosystem services:a case study in Pingbian County, China[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2007,128:503-510.
[7] 龙花楼.论土地利用转型与土地资源管理[J].地理研究,2015,34(9):1607-1618.
Long H L. Land use transition and land management[J]. Geographical Research, 2015,34(9):1607-1618.
[8] Liu Y, Huang X, Yang H, et al. Environmental effects of land-use/cover change caused by urbanization and policies in Southwest China Karst area: A case study of Guiyang[J]. Habitat International, 2014,44:339-348.
[9] 赵国松,刘纪远,匡文慧,等.1990—2010年中国土地利用变化对生物多样性保护重点区域的扰动[J].地理学报,2014,69(11):1640-1650.
Zhao G S, Liu J Y, Kuang W H, et al. Disturbance impacts of land use change on biodiversity conservation priority areas across China during 1990-2010[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014,69(11):1640-1650.
[10] 白娥,薛冰.土地利用与土地覆盖变化对生态系统的影响[J].植物生态学报,2020,44(5):543-552.
Bai E, Xue B. A review of influences of land use and land cover change on ecosystems[J]. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2020,44(5):543-552.
[11] 雷金睿,陈宗铸,吴庭天,等.1989—2015年海口城市热环境与景观格局的时空演变及其相互关系[J].中国环境科学,2019,39(4):1734-1743.
Lei J R, Chen Z C, Wu T T, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and interrelationship between thermal environment and landscape patterns of Haikou City, 1989—2015[J]. China Environmental Science, 2019,39(4):1734-1743.
[12] 陈万旭,李江风,曾杰,等.中国土地利用变化生态环境效应的空间分异性与形成机理[J].地理研究,2019,38(9):2173-2187.
Chen W X, Li J F, Zeng J, et al. Spatial heterogeneity and formation mechanism of eco-environmental effect of land use change in China[J]. Geographical Research, 2019,38(9):2173-2187.
[13] 李晓文,方创琳,黄金川,等.西北干旱区城市土地利用变化及其区域生态环境效应:以甘肃河西地区为例[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(3):280-290.
Li X W, Fang C L, Huang J C, et al. The urban land use transformations and associated effects on eco-environment in northwest China arid region:A case study in Hexi region, Gansu province[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 2003,23(3):280-290.
[14] 焦露,薛哲进,尹剑,等.“三生空间”视角下喀斯特地区土地利用转型的生态环境效应:以贵州省为例[J].生态经济,2020,36(4):206-212.
Jiao L, Xue Z J, Yin J, et al. Eco-Environmental effects of land use transition in Karst area based on the view of“ecological-production-living spaces”:Taking Guizhou province as an example[J]. Ecol. Econ, 2020,36(4):206-212.
[15] 杨清可,段学军,王磊,等.基于“三生空间”的土地利用转型与生态环境效应:以长江三角洲核心区为例[J].地理科学,2018,38(1):97-106.
Yang Q K, Duan X J, Wang L, et al. Land use transformation based on ecological-production-living spaces and associated eco-environment effects:A case study in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Sci. Geogr. Sin, 2018,38(1):97-106.
[16] 苑韶峰,唐奕钰,申屠楚宁.土地利用转型时空演变及其生态环境效应:基于长江经济带127个地级市的实证研究[J].经济地理,2019,39(9):174-181.
Yuan S F, Tang Y Y, Shentu C N. Spatiotemporal change of land-use transformation and its eco-environmental response:A case of 127 counties in Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Econ. Geogr, 2019,39(9):174-181.
[17] 高星,刘泽伟,李晨曦,等.基于“三生空间”的雄安新区土地利用功能转型与生态环境效应研究[J].生态学报,2020,40(20):7113-7122.
Gao X, Liu Z W, Li C X, et al. Land use function transformation in the Xiong'an New Area based on ecological-production-living spaces and associated eco-environment effects[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2020,40(20):7113-7122.
[18] Etemadi H, Smoak J M, Karami J. Land use change assessment in coastal mangrove forests of Iran utilizing satellite imagery and CA-Markov algorithms to monitor and predict future change[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2018,77:1-13.
[19] Firozjaei M K, Sedighi A, Argany M, et al. A geographical direction-based approach for capturing the local variation of urban expansion in the application of CA-Markov model[J]. Cities, 2019,93(10):120-135.
[20] Rimal B, Keshtkar H, Sharma R, et al. Simulating urban expansion in a rapidly changing landscape in eastern Tarai, Nepal[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2019,191:1-14.
[21] Ramli, Firuz M, Aburas, et al. Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2017,59:65-78.
[22] Tang F, Fu M, Wang L, et al. Land-use change in Changli County, China: Predicting its spatio-temporal evolution in habitat quality[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2020,117:106719.
[23] 张学儒,周杰,李梦梅.基于土地利用格局重建的区域生境质量时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2020,75(1):160-178.
Zhang X R, Zhou J, Li M M. Analysis on spatial and temporal changes of regional habitat quality based on the spatial pattern reconstruction of land use[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020,75(1):160-178.
[24] 杨述河,闫海利,郭丽英.北方农牧交错带土地利用变化及其生态环境效应:以陕北榆林市为例[J].地理科学进展,2004,23(6):49-55.
Yang S H, Yan H L, Guo L Y. The land use change and its eco-environmental effects in transitional agro-pastoral region: A case study of Yulin City in Northern Shanxi province[J]. Progress in Geography, 2004,23(6):49-55.
[25] Sang L, Zhang C, Yang J, et al. Simulation of land use spatial pattern of towns and villages based on CA-Markov model[J]. Elsevier Science Publishers B V,2011,54(3):938-943.
[26] Wang Q H, Kalantar-Zadeh K, Kis A, et al. Electronics and optoelectronics of two-dimensional transition metal dichalcogenides[J]. Nature nanotechnology, 2012,7(11):699-712.
[27] Sudhira H S, Ramachandra T V, Jagadish K S. Urban sprawl:metrics, dynamics and modelling using GIS[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observations and Geoinformation, 2004,5(1):29-39.
[28] Oliver M A, Webster R. A tutorial guide to geostatistics:Computing and modelling variograms and kriging[J]. Catena, 2014,113(2):56-69.
[29] 吕霜霜.三峡库区土地利用变化及生态服务价值研究[D].重庆:西南大学,2019.
Lv S S. Study on land use change and ecological service value in the Three gorges reservoir area[D]. Chongqing:Southwest University, 2019.
[30] 金贵,郭柏枢,成金华,等.基于资源效率的国土空间布局及支撑体系框架[J].地理学报,2022,77(3):534-546.
Jin G, Guo B S, Cheng J H, et al. Layout optimization and support system of territorialspace:An analysis framework based on resource efficiency[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022,77(3):534-546.
相似文献/References:
[1]谭君,李世平.铜川市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):131.
TAN Jun,LI Shi-ping.Analysis on Impacts of Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Service Value in Tongchuan City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):131.
[2]麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,海米提·依米提,组皮艳木·买买提,等.焉耆盆地土地利用变化对生态服务价值的影响[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):137.
Mamattursun·Eziz,Hamid·Yimit,Zulpiya·Mamat,et al.Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Yanqi Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):137.
[3]章后甜,杜会石,王世东,等.长白山地区土地利用及生态系统服务价值变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):242.
ZHANG Hou-tian,DU Hui-shi,WANG Shi-dong,et al.Study on the Land Use Change and Ecosystem Services Value in Changbai Mountain[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):242.
[4]张云鹏,孙燕,王小丽,等.不同尺度下的土地利用变化驱动力研究——以常州市新北区为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):111.
ZHANG Yun-peng,SUN Yan,WANG Xiao-li,et al.Study on the Driving Force of Land Use Change at Differernt Scales-A Case Study of the Xinbei District of Changzhou City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):111.
[5]侯兰功,乔标.北京市城市扩张及其生态效应研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):193.
HOU Lan-gong,QIAO Biao.Study on Urban Expansion and Its Ecological Effect in Beijing City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):193.
[6]陈颖,石培基,潘竟虎,等.高原生态城土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响研究——以甘肃省民乐县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):154.
CHEN Ying,SHI Pei-ji,PAN Jing-hu,et al.Analysis on the Effect of Land-use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in the Plateau Eco-city——A Case Study of Minle County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):154.
[7]谢余初,巩杰,赵彩霞,等.干旱区绿洲土地利用变化的生态系统服务价值响应——以甘肃省金塔县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):165.
XIE Yu-chu,GONG Jie,ZHAO Cai-xia,et al.Responses of Oasis Ecological Service Value to Land Use Change in Arid Area——A Case Study of Jinta County, Gansu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):165.
[8]鄢铁平,廖炜,李璐,等.丹江口库区土地利用结构与格局优化[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):11.
YAN Tie-ping,LIAO Wei,LI Lu,et al.Optimization of Land Use Structure and Spatial Pattern for the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):11.
[9]柯新利,韩冰华,刘蓉霞,等.1990年以来武汉城市圈土地利用变化时空特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):76.
KE Xin-li,HAN Bing-hua,LIU Rong-xia,et al.Study on Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Land Use Change in Wuhan Metropolitan Area Since 1990[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):76.
[10]刘金花,郑新奇.全运会对济南市城区土地利用变化的影响分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):87.
LIU Jin-hua,ZHENG Xin-qi.Influence of the Eleventh National Games on Land Use Change of Building Area in Ji’nan City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):87.
[11]崔国屹,张 艳,晁 阳,等.秦岭地区近40年土地利用变化及其生态环境效应[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(01):319.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.20220301.002]
CUI Guoyi,ZHANG Yan,CHAO Yang,et al.Land Use Change and Eco-Environmental Effects in Qinling Mountains in Recent 40 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(03):319.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.20220301.002]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-05-31 修回日期:2023-06-14
资助项目:国家自然科学基金项目“延龙图地区城市生态用地评价与空间格局优化研究”(41461036)
第一作者:余洲(1996—),男,四川广安人,硕士,助理工程师,研究方向为地图学与地理信息系统。E-mail:1070230928@qq.com
通信作者:李明玉(1974—),女,黑龙江梅林人,博士,教授,研究方向为城市生态用地评价。E-mail:leemy@ybu.edu.cn