Hu Jixi,Le Xianwen,Xu Yong.Estimating Terrestrial Eco-System Carbon Stock Changes Caused by Multi-Scenarios Land-Use Changes Based on the FLUS Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(02):299-309.
基于FLUS模型多情景土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量影响——以江西萍乡为例
- Title:
- Estimating Terrestrial Eco-System Carbon Stock Changes Caused by Multi-Scenarios Land-Use Changes Based on the FLUS Model
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)02-0299-11
- Keywords:
- land use change; carbon neutrality; FLUS; scenario simulation; Pingxiang City
- 分类号:
- F301.24; X144
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]揭示萍乡碳储量时空分布特征,阐明土地地类变化与碳储量之间的关系,为探明区域生态系统碳储量状况提供数据支撑。[方法]利用FLUS(future land use simulation)模型与InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs)模型,预测了2030年萍乡市3种不同情景下(自然发展、耕地保护和生态优先)碳储量值。[结果](1)2010—2020年萍乡市碳储量整体呈下降趋势,共减少1.47×106t;(2)耕地、建设用地、草地、水体和建设用地面积增加和林地与灌木面积减少,是导致碳储量变化的主要原因;(3)2030年自然发展、耕地保护和生态优先情景下陆地生态系统碳储量分别约为4.906×107,4.919×107,5.038×107t,其中生态优先情景下碳储量损失最少。[结论]萍乡生态系统碳储量呈下降趋势,主要受耕地与建设用地增大的影响,未来应加强对安源区与经济开发区重点变化区域的监测研究。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon storage in Pingxiang, to clarify the relationship between land use change and carbon storage, and to provide data support for understanding the carbon storage status of the regional ecosystem. [Methods] The FLUS(future land use simulation)model and the InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs)model were used to predict the carbon storage values under three different scenarios(natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority)in Pingxiang City in 2030. [Results](1)From 2010 to 2020 the carbon storage in Pingxiang City showed an overall decreasing trend with a total reduction of 1.47×106t.(2)The increase in farmland, construction land, grassland, water bodies, and construction land area, as well as the decrease in forest and shrub area were the main reasons for the changes in carbon storage.(3)In 2030, under the scenarios of natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority, the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Pingxiang City will be approximately 4.906×107, 4.919×107 and 5.038×107t, respectively, with the least carbon storage loss observed in the ecological priority scenario. [Conclusion] The carbon storage of the Pingxiang ecosystem is declining mainly due to the increase in farmland and construction land. In the future, monitoring and research should be strengthened in key areas of change in Anyuan District and the Economic Development Zone.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-02-07 修回日期:2023-03-17
资助项目:江西省社会科学基金“萍乡市城乡融合发展对策研究”(21DQ14)
第一作者:胡佶熹(1981—),男,江西萍乡人,博士研究生,讲师,研究方向为土地利用变化及生态效应分析。E-mail:hjx198118@163.com
通信作者:徐勇(1988—),男,湖南益阳人,博士,副教授,主要从事气候变化和植被覆盖反演研究。E-mail:yongxu@glut.edu.cn