YANG Weiqing,ZHANG Huilan.Ecosystem Service Value Assessment and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Fujiang River Basin Based on GeoSOS-FLUS[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):253-262.
基于GeoSOS-FLUS的涪江流域生态系统服务价值评估及多情景模拟
- Title:
- Ecosystem Service Value Assessment and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Fujiang River Basin Based on GeoSOS-FLUS
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2022)05-0253-10
- 关键词:
- 生态系统服务价值(ESV); 多情景模拟; GeoSOS-FLUS; 土地利用变化
- 分类号:
- X171; X321
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了探究涪江流域的土地利用结构及其生态服务价值的时空变化,通过预测情景支持未来土地规划,研究基于1980—2018年5期遥感影像,构建生态系统服务价值评估模型并分析时空动态变化,采用GeoSOS-FLUS模拟自然发展情景、耕地安全情景、生态保护情景和快速发展4种情景下未来的土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值的演变趋势。结果表明:(1)1980—2018年,耕地面积减少542.25 km2,减幅为2.57%; 建设用地扩张面积525.66 km2,增幅达255.50%。(2)对应其生态系统服务价值呈增加趋势,由1980年的776.48亿元增加到2018年的783.67亿元,不同土地利用类型对生态系统服务价值的贡献顺序为林地>耕地>水域>草地>未利用土地。(3)在空间上呈现上游高中下游低,下游地区大致呈现由中部向东西两侧递减趋势,流域西南部是低价值区。(4)4种发展情景下,2030年的生态服务价值分别是784.80亿元、740.31亿元、811.09亿元和751.40亿元,相较于2015年变化了1.44亿元(增加)、-43.05亿元(减少)、27.74亿元(增加)和-31.96亿元(减少)。综上,38年来流域生态价值提高,同时模拟结果显示为维持该流域生态安全,需要加强生态用地的抚育。
- Abstract:
- In order to explore the spatial-temporal changes of land use structure and its ecosystem service value in the Fujiang River Basin, and support future land planning through prediction scenarios, based on five remote sensing images from 1980 to 2018, we constructed an ecosystem service value evaluation model to analyze the dynamic changes of time and space, and used GeoSOS-FLUS to simulate the evolution trend of future land use change and ecosystem service value under four scenarios: natural development scenario, cultivated land security scenario, ecological protection scenario and rapid development scenario. The results showed that:(1)from 1980 to 2018, the cultivated land area decreased by 542.25 km2, the decrease rate was 2.57%, and the construction land expanded by 525.66 km2, the increase rate was 255.50%;(2)the value of ecosystem services increased from 77.648 billion yuan in 1980 to 78.367 billion yuan in 2018; and the contribution order of different land use types to ecosystem service value was woodland>cultivated land>water area>grassland>unused land;(3)the value of ecosystem services in the upper reaches was higher than that in the lower reaches; the value of ecosystem services in the lower reaches decreased from the middle to the east and west; the southwest of the basin is the low value area of ecosystem services;(4)under the four development scenarios, the value of ecological services in 2030 was 78.480 billion yuan, 74.031 billion yuan, 81.109 billion yuan and 75.140 billion yuan, respectively, which changed 144 million yuan(increase), -4.305 billion yuan(decrease), 2.774 billion yuan(increase)and -3.196 billion yuan(decrease)compared with 2015. To sum up, the ecological value of the basin had improved in the past 38 years. At the same time, the simulation results show that it is necessary to strengthen the cultivation of ecological land in order to maintain the ecological security of the basin.
参考文献/References:
[1] Arias-Arévalo P, Martín-López B, Gómez-Baggethun E. Exploring intrinsic, instrumental, and relational values for sustainable management of social-ecological systems[J]. Ecology and Society, 2017,22(4),https://www.jstor.org/stable/26799016.
[2] Costanza R, Arge A, Groot R, et al. The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital[J]. Ecological Economics, 1997,25:3-15.
[3] Song W, Deng X. Land-use/land-cover change and ecosystem service provision in China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2017,576:705-719.
[4] 巩杰,徐彩仙,燕玲玲,等.1997—2018年生态系统服务研究热点变化与动向[J].应用生态学报,2019,30(10):3265-3276.
[5] 谢高地,鲁春霞,成升魁.全球生态系统服务价值评估研究进展[J].资源科学,2001,23(6):5-9.
[6] 谢高地,张彩霞,张昌顺,等.中国生态系统服务的价值[J].资源科学,2015,37(9):1740-1746.
[7] Xing L, Zhu Y, Wang J. Spatial spillover effects of urbanization on ecosystem services value in Chinese cities[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2021,121:107028.
[8] Shao X, Jing C, Qi J, et al. Impacts of land use and planning on island ecosystem service values:a case study of Dinghai District on Zhoushan Archipelago, China[J]. Ecological Processes, 2017,6(1):1-11.
[9] Beaumont N, Austen M, Atkins J, et al. Identification, definition and quantification of goods and services provided by marine biodiversity:Implications for the ecosystem approach[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 2007,54(3):253-265.
[10] Wu S, Yan X, Zhang L. The relationship between forest ecosystem emergy and forest ecosystem service value in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014,69(3):334-342.
[11] 李辉,周启刚,李斌,等.近30年三峡库区生态系统服务价值与生态风险时空变化及相关性研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2021,30(3):654-666.
[12] 游惠明,韩建亮,潘德灼,等.泉州湾河口湿地生态系统服务价值的动态评价及驱动力分析[J].应用生态学报,2019,30(12):4286-4292.
[13] Sannigrahi S, Bhatt S, Rahmat S, et al. Estimating global ecosystem service values and its response to land surface dynamics during 1995—2015[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2018,223:115-131.
[14] 许丁雪,吴芳,何立环,等.土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响:以张家口—承德地区为例[J].生态学报,2019,39(20):7493-7501.
[15] Tan Z, Guan Q, Lin J, et al. The response and simulation of ecosystem services value to land use/land cover in an oasis, Northwest China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2020,118:106711.
[16] Liu X, Liang X, Li X, et al. A future land use simulation model(FLUS)for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2017,168:94-116.
[17] 张杰,周寅康,李仁强,等.土地利用/覆盖变化空间直观模拟精度检验与不确定性分析:以北京都市区为例[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2009,39(11):1560-1569.
[18] 刘小平,黎夏,叶嘉安,等.利用蚁群智能挖掘地理元胞自动机的转换规则[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2007,37(6):824-834.
[19] 王旭,马伯文,李丹,等.基于FLUS模型的湖北省生态空间多情景模拟预测[J].自然资源学报,2020,35(1):230-242.
[20] Huang Y, Huang J L, Liao T J, et al. Simulating urban expansion and its impact on functional connectivity in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2018,643:1553-1561.
[21] Liang X, Liu X, Li X, et al. Delineating multi-scenario urban growth boundaries with a CA-based FLUS model and morphological method[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2018,177:47-63.
[22] 熊鹰.基于价值当量因子分析的四川省农业生态系统服务价值评价研究[J].中国农学通报,2021,37(2):154-160.
[23] 左玲丽,彭文甫,陶帅,等.岷江上游土地利用与生态系统服务价值的动态变化研究[J].生态学报,2021,41(16):6384-6397.
相似文献/References:
[1]王权,李阳兵,黄娟,等.喀斯特槽谷区土地利用转型过程对生态系统服务价值的影响[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(03):192.
WANG Quan,LI Yangbing,HUANG Juan,et al.Effect of Land Use Transformation Process on Ecosystem Service Value in Karst Trough Valley Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(05):192.
[2]李世锋,洪增林,薛旭平,等.基于Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型的彬州市LUCC多情景模拟[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(04):292.
LI Shifeng,HONG Zenglin,XUE Xuping,et al.Multi-Scenario Simulation of LUCC in Binzhou City Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Coupling Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):292.
[3]王 博,舒晓波,廖富强,等.基于最佳景观尺度的鄱阳湖区土地利用冲突时空演变及多情景模拟[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(04):336.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.041]
Wang Bo,Shu Xiaobo,Liao Fuqiang,et al.Spatitemporal of Land Use Conflicts and Multi-Scenario Simulation in Poyang Lake Area Based on Optimal Landscape Scale[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(05):336.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.041]
[4]丁禹元,席 愉,王 玉,等.生态脆弱区县域生态系统服务综合管控分区模拟与优化——以陕西陇县为例[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(05):344.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.05.003]
Ding Yuyuan,Xi Yu,Wang Yu,et al.Simulation and Optimization of Zoning and Management of County Ecosystem Services in Ecologically Fragile Areas[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(05):344.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.05.003]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-06-30 修回日期:2021-07-22
资助项目:北京林业大学科技创新计划项目(2021ZY50); 国家自然科学基金(51309006); 国家重大水利资助项目"三峡工程泥沙重大问题研究课题"(12610100000018J129-01); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2016ZCQ06, 2015ZCQ-SB-01)
第一作者:杨伟青(1997—),女,山东东营人,硕士,研究方向:流域水文过程与机理。E-mail:weiqing123@bjfu.edu.cn
通信作者:张会兰(1984—),女,河北保定人,博士,副教授,研究方向:流域水文过程与机理。E-mail:zhanghl@bjfu.edu.cn