CAO Can,SUN Rui,WU Zhixiang,et al.Responses of Streamflow to Climate Change in Upstream of Nandujiang River Basin Based on SWAT Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(02):255-264.
基于SWAT模型的南渡江上游流域径流对气候变化的响应
- Title:
- Responses of Streamflow to Climate Change in Upstream of Nandujiang River Basin Based on SWAT Model
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2022)02-0255-10
- 分类号:
- P333
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了评估未来气候变化对热带岛屿性森林流域径流的影响,以海南岛南渡江上游流域为例,构建本地化SWAT模型,基于CMIP6全球气候模式数据提取的气候变化信号,定量辨析了流域径流量对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)南渡江上游流域年平均径流量16.1 m3/s,旱季和雨季径流量分别占年径流量的17%,83%;(2)1961—2020年南渡江上游流域年平均径流减少趋势不显著,其中旱季径流增加4.6%,而雨季径流减少9.9%;(3)流域旱季径流增加量远低于雨季径流减少量致使年平均径流量减少,旱季径流增加由降水增多所致,雨季气温升高引起蒸发加剧是造成径流减少的关键;(4)在CMIP6计划的SSP119,SSP126,SSP434,SSP245,SSP460,SSP370和SSP585路径下,21世纪不同时期研究区径流变化主要受降水变化的影响,而21世纪后期气候变化加剧会引起研究区径流变化幅度加大。研究区径流对降水变化的敏感性高于气温,降水变化主导未来时期南渡江上游流域的径流量变化。
- Abstract:
- In order to assess the impact of future climate change on streamflow of tropical island forest watersheds, taking the upstream of Nandujiang River Basin in Hainan Island as an example, based on the climate change signals extracted from the CMIP6, we established a localized SWAT model to quantitatively analyze the response of streamflow to climate change. The results were summarized as follows:(1)The average annual streamflow in the upstream of Nandujiang River Basin was 16.1 m3/s, and the streamflow in dry and rainy season accounted for 17% and 83% of the annual streamflow, respectively.(2)The average annual streamflow in the upstream of Nandujiang River Basin decreased slightly during 1961—2020. And the streamflow in dry season increased by 4.6%, while the streamflow in rainy season decreased by 9.9%.(3)The increase of streamflow in dry season was much lower than the decrease in rainy season, resulting in the reduced average annual streamflow. The increase of streamflow in dry season was caused by the increase of precipitation, and the intensified evaporation caused by the rising temperature in rainy season was the key factor to the decrease of streamflow.(4)The responses of streamflow to precipitation change were more sensitive than that to temperature. Under the paths of SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370 and SSP585 of CMIP6, the streamflow changes in different periods in the 21st century were mainly affected by precipitation changes. And the enhanced climate change will increase the streamflow variation range in the late 21st century. The streamflow in the study area is more sensitive to precipitation changes than temperature, and precipitation changes will dominate the streamflow changes in the upstream of Nandujiang River Basin in the future.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-05-20 修回日期:2021-06-15
资助项目:海南省自然科学基金高层次人才项目(2019RC335); 现代农业产业技术体系建设专项(CARS-33-ZP3)
第一作者:曹灿(1995—),女,重庆合川人,硕士研究生,研究方向为气候变化的水文效应。E-mail:m13677624207@163.com
通信作者:孙瑞(1985—),女,陕西榆林人,博士,助理研究员,主要从事土地利用变化的环境效应研究。E-mail:sunrui_85@163.com
李茜(1981—),女,陕西汉中人,博士,副研究员,主要从事环境生态修复研究。E-mail:li_q@nxu.edu.cn