[1]梁守真,隋学艳,王 猛,等.基于SPEI的黄河流域多时间尺度干湿变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(01):231-241.
　LIANG Shouzhen,SUI Xueyan,WANG Meng,et al.Multiple Time Scales Analysis of Dryness and Wetness Changes of the Yellow River Basin in the Past 50 Years Based on SPEI Data[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(01):231-241.
点击复制

基于SPEI的黄河流域多时间尺度干湿变化分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 29 期数: 2022年01期 页码: 231-241 栏目: 出版日期: 2022-02-20
Title:
Multiple Time Scales Analysis of Dryness and Wetness Changes of the Yellow River Basin in the Past 50 Years Based on SPEI Data
文章编号:
1005-3409(2022)01-0231-11
作者:
梁守真1, 隋学艳1, 王 猛1, 李新华2, 董红云2, 姚慧敏3, 马万栋4
(1.山东省农业科学院农业信息与经济研究所,济南 250100; 2.山东省农业科学院湿地农业与生态研究所,济南 250100; 3.农业农村部华东都市农业重点实验室/山东省农业科学院休闲农业研究所,济南 250100; 4.生态环境部卫星环境应用中心, 北京 100094)
Author(s):
LIANG Shouzhen1, SUI Xueyan1, WANG Meng1, LI Xinhua2, DONG Hongyun2, YAO Huimin3, MA Wandong4
(1.Institute of Agricultural Information and Economics,Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Ji'nan250100,China;2.Institute of Wetland Agriculture and Ecology,Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Ji'nan250100,China;3.Key Laboratory of East China Urban Agriculture,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Institute of Leisure Agriculture,Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Ji'nan250100,China;4.Satellite Environment Center,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Beijing100094,China)
关键词:
SPEI;  干湿变化;  多时间尺度;  干旱;  黄河流域
Keywords:
SPEI;  dryness and wetness change;  multiple time scales;  drought;  Yellow River Basin
分类号:
P426.1
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
黄河流域是我国重要的经济地带和生态屏障,水资源匮乏,研究流域的干湿变化对于水资源的合理管理和利用、促进流域的可持续发展具有十分重要的现实意义。运用1966—2015年3个时间尺度(年、半年、季节尺度)的SPEI数据,基于EOF,Mann-Kendall方法研究了全球变暖背景下黄河流域的干湿变化特征,并进行归因探讨。结果表明:在过去的50年中,黄河流域的SPEI有显著的年际波动,但大部分区域的SPEI未有显著的增加或降低的趋势,区域之间的干湿变化具有非同步特征; 黄河流域气温与SPEI相关性弱,SPEI与降水有更好的同步性; 黄河流域夏、秋季节的干旱较冬、春季节严重,中部黄土高原区的干旱事件频率高于黄河流域西部高原和东部平原区。研究表明黄河流域干湿状况存在区域差异,降水是决定SPEI大小的关键因子,异常气候事件—厄尔尼诺在一定程度上会影响流域的干湿状况。
Abstract:
The Yellow River Basin where water resources are lacking is an important economic region and ecological protective screen. Therefore, it is meaningful to research the dryness and wetness changes of the Yellow River Basin for reasonable management and use of water and sustainable development of the basin. In this study, the SPEI data from 1966 to 2015 were analyzed to acquire the characteristics of the dryness and wetness changes of the Yellow River Basin in the context of global warming through EOF and Mann-Kendall methods. Furthermore, the reasons inducing SPEI change were also discussed. The results showed that in the past 50 years, SPEI had changed temporally, but there were no obvious increase or decrease trends in SPEI, and the changes of dryness and wetness among regions were nonsynchronous; the correlation coefficient between SPEI and air temperature was small, and precipitation was the main factor determining SPEI in the Yellow River Basin; there were more droughts in summer and autumn than those in winter and spring, and compared with the western plateau and eastern plain, the Loess Platea in the Yellow River Basin had more droughts. El Niño can worsen the effects of droughts in the Yellow River Basin.

参考文献/References:

[1] 刘珂,姜大膀.基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):23-36.
[2] IPCC. Climate change 2013:The physical science basis[R]. New York:Cambridge University Press, 2013.
[3] McKee T B, Doesken N D, Kleist J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales [R]. Boston:American Meteorological Society, 1993.
[4] Palmer W C. Meteorological drought [R]. Washington:Us Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, 1965:1-58.
[5] Alley W M. The Palmer drought severity index:Limitations and assumptions [J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1984,23(23):1100-1109.
[6] Guttman N B. Comparing the palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index [J]. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1998,34(1):113-121.
[7] Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I. A multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index-SPEI [J]. Journal of Climate, 2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[8] Thornthwaite C W. An approach toward a rational classification of climate [J]. Geographical Review, 1948,38(1):55-94.
[9] van der Schrier G, Jones P D, Briffa K R. The sensitivity of the PDSI to the Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith parameterizations for potential evapotranspiration[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2011,116(3):D03106.
[10] Donohue R J, Mcvicar T R, Roderick M L. Assessing the ability of potential evaporation formulations to capture the dynamics in evaporative demand within a changing climate [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2010,386(1/4):186-197.
[11] Monteith J L. Evaporation and environment [J]. Symposia of the Society for Experimental Biology, 1965,19:205-234.
[12] Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, et al. Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop Water Requirements[R]. Rome:Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1998:20-21.
[13] Beguería S, Vicente-Serrano S M, Reig F, et al. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)revisited:Parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, kernel weighting, tools, datasets and drought monitoring [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2014,34(10):3001-3023.
[14] Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I, et al. A new global 0.5° gridded dataset(1901—2006)of a multiscalar drought index:Comparison with current drought index datasets based on the Palmer drought severity index [J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2010,11(4):1033-1043.
[15] 黄庆忠,张强,李勤,等.基于SPEI的季节性干湿变化特征及成因探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2018,27(2):130-140.
[16] 冯怡,薛联青,张敏,等.基于两种SPEI序列的淮河流域干湿特征变化[J].水资源保护,2019,35(1):35-40.
[17] 徐泽华,韩美.山东省干旱时空分布特征及其与ENSO的相关性[J].中国生态农业学报,2018,26(8):1236-1248.
[18] 柴荣繁,陈海山,孙善磊.基于SPEI的中国干湿变化趋势归因分析[J].气象科学,2018,38(4):423-431.
[19] Mitchell T D, Jones P D. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2005,25(6):693-712.
[20] Braud I, Obled C H, Phamdinhtuan A. Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)analysis of spatial random fields:Theory, accuracy of the numerical approximations and sampling effects[J]. Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, 1993,7:146-160.
[21] 裴琳,严中伟,杨辉.400多年来中国东部旱涝型变化与太平洋年代际振荡关系[J].科学通报,2015,60(1):97-108.
[22] 刘洁,王宁练,花婷.1960—2016年中国北方半干旱区盛夏降水时空变化及其水汽输送特征分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2019,15(3):257-269.
[23] 李忠贤,余滔,曾刚,等.夏季大西洋Niňo基本特征及其与中国夏季降水异常的联系[J].大气科学学报,2019,42(6):835-844.
[24] 赵峰,毕硕本,李兴宇,等.基于EOF和REOF的1470—1911年黄河中下游地区旱涝空间分布特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2019,42(4):799-809.
[25] Mann H B. Nonparametric test against trend [J]. Econometrica, 1945,13(3):245-259.
[26] Kendall M G. Rank correlation methods [J]. British Journal of Psychology General, 1990,12(1):86-91.
[27] Westra S, Alexander L V, Zwiers F W. Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation [J]. Journal of Climate, 2013,26(11):3904-3918.
[28] Zhu Z C, Piao S L, Myneni R B, et al. Greening of the Earth and its drivers [J]. Nature Climate Change, 2016,6:791-795.
[29] 国家气候中心,中国气象局预测与网络司,中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所. GB/T 20481-2017气象干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2017.
[30] 徐勇,王传胜.黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展:框架、路径与对策[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(7):875-883.
[31] 常军,王永光,赵宇,等.近50年黄河流域降水量及雨日的气候变化特征[J].高原气象,2014,33(1):43-54.

相似文献/References:

[1]张 璐,朱仲元,王慧敏,等.基于SPEI的锡林河流域气象干旱风险分析[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(02):220.
　ZHANG Lu,ZHU Zhongyuan,WANG Huimin,et al.Analysis on Risk of Meteorological Drought of the Upstream Xilin River Basin Based on SPEI[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(01):220.
[2]李尚飞,戈文艳,王 飞.1982—2019年中国北方干旱事件特征及其对植被的影响[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(03):251.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.03.017]
　LI Shangfei,GE Wenyan,WANG Fei.Characteristics of Drought Events and Their Impacts on Vegetation in Northern China from 1982 to 2019[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(01):251.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.03.017]

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2021-01-20 修回日期:2021-03-06
资助项目:山东省自然科学基金面上项目“黄河三角洲翅碱蓬花青素遥感探测机理与监测(ZR2020MD019)”; 山东省农业科学院创新工程“湿地生态环境长期定位监测(CXGC2021A37)”; 国家自然科学基金:“森林冠层绿色FPAR的高光谱遥感反演研究(41401407)”
第一作者:梁守真(1979—),男,山东阳谷人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为生态环境遥感。E-mail:szliang_cas@163.com
通信作者:姚慧敏(1979—),女,山东成武人,副研究员,主要从事土地资源遥感研究。E-mail:yhm79424@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 2022-02-20