LU Zehua,WANG Junqin.Risk Analysis of Shortage of Agricultural Water Resources in Guanzhong Plain Under Natural Precipitation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(06):364-370.
自然降水条件下关中平原农业水资源短缺风险分析
- Title:
- Risk Analysis of Shortage of Agricultural Water Resources in Guanzhong Plain Under Natural Precipitation
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2021)06-0364-07
- Keywords:
- Guanzhong Plain; Copula function; effective precipitation; crop water demand; agricultural water resources shortage
- 分类号:
- P426.6; S274.3
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为有效提升干旱半干旱地区农业水资源管理水平，基于关中平原6个代表性站点1962—2016年逐日气象资料，计算关中东部和关中西部年有效降水量(Pey)、年作物需水量(ETcy)及其边缘分布函数，运用Copula函数构建了Pey和ETcy的二维联合概率分布模型，评估了关中平原农业水资源短缺风险。结果表明:关中东部Pey和ETcy分别服从对数正态分布和广义极值分布，关中西部Pey和ETcy分别服从伽马分布和广义极值分布，关中东部的农业水资源短缺程度明显高于关中西部; 关中东部、关中西部均表现为当ETcy处于高水平(p≤37.5%)或Pey处于低水平(p≥62.5%)时，自然降水和作物需水处于不协调状况的可能性较高，供水不能满足需水要求的概率较大，重现期较短(1～4 a)，农业水资源短缺风险较高，建议关中平原建立与水资源承载能力相适应、与节水增收目标相配套的种植业结构。
- Abstract:
- In order to effectively improve the management level of agricultural water resources in arid and semi-arid regions，we calculated the annual effective precipitation(Pey)and annual crop water requirement(ETcy)with the marginal distribution function of the eastern and western Guanzhong Plains based on the daily meteorological data from six representative stations in the Guanzhong Plain from 1962 to 2016. We mainly used the Copula function to construct a two-dimensional joint probability distribution model of Pey and ETcy to assess the risk of shortage of agricultural water in the Guanzhong Plain. The results show that: Pey and ETcy in the eastern part of Guanzhong followed the lognormal distribution and generalized extreme value distribution，respectively，and the Pey and ETcy in the western part of Guanzhong followed the gamma distribution and generalized extreme value distribution，respectively; the shortage of agricultural water resources in the east of Guanzhong was obviously higher than that in the west of Guanzhong; when ETcy was at a high level(p≤37.5%)or Pey was at a low level(p≥62.5%)in eastern Guanzhong and western Guanzhong，there was a high probability that the natural precipitation and crop water demand were in an uncoordinated state，and the return period was short(1～4 years)，the probability that the water supply could not meet the water demand was greater，and the risk of agricultural water shortage was higher. The research results can provide an important basis for the adjustment of crop planting structure. It is suggested that the cropping structure that is compatible with the carrying capacity of water resources and the goal of saving water and increasing income in the Guanzhong Plain should be established.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2020-09-25 修回日期:2020-11-09资助项目:四川省水科院“四川省东风渠供水区作物需水规律与灌溉制度研究与示范”(SKY-2020-SJZX-16)第一作者:卢泽华(1986—)，男，河北藁城人，工程师，硕士研究生，研究方向为水文水资源管理。E-mail:luzehoo@hotmail.com通信作者:王君勤(1973—)，女，陕西岐山人，高工，主要从事节水与水资源管理及相关技术标准、法规、制度等研究。E-mail:252455821@qq.com