LI Zirui,JIANG Bo,ZHANG Yu,et al.Evaluation and Prediction of Coordination Between New Urbanization and Intensive Use of Cultivated Land in Three Northeastern Provinces of China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(06):260-267.
东北三省新型城镇化与耕地集约利用协调性评价与预测
- Title:
- Evaluation and Prediction of Coordination Between New Urbanization and Intensive Use of Cultivated Land in Three Northeastern Provinces of China
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2021)06-0260-08
- Keywords:
- intensive use of cultivated land; new urbanization; three provinces in northeast China; coupling and coordination
- 分类号:
- F323.4
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了保证经济高质量发展与粮食安全，需要实现新型城镇化与耕地集约利用的协调发展。以东北三省为研究区，首先构建新型城镇化与耕地集约利用评价体系，其次，利用耦合协调度模型分析各市2008—2018年协调发展规律及时空演变特征，最后以发展目标为导向，建立多种情景，构建RBF神经网络模型预测分析了2019—2030年系统协调发展水平。结果表明:研究期内东北三省各市协调水平波动上升，吉林、辽宁整体高于黑龙江省，2018年除齐齐哈尔、绥化、大兴安岭地区外，其他城市协调水平均已达到勉强协调。黑龙江省两系统空间格局为东部协调度高水平地区连片面状布局，西部低水平地区切割分布，且绥化始终为低水平区。吉林省区域差异明显，由东高西低逐渐演变为以长春、白山为双核心的空间格局。辽宁省空间格局无显著变动，呈东高西低分布。现有发展模式协调度提升潜力不足，需稳步提升城镇质量、统筹城乡一体发展，以经济建设反哺农业生产。
- Abstract:
- In order to ensure high-quality economic development and food security，it is necessary to realize the coordinated development of new urbanization and intensive use of cultivated land. We first used the three northeastern provinces as the research areas to build a new-type urbanization and intensive use of cultivated land. Secondly，we used the coupling coordination degree model to analyze the coordinated development law and time-space evolution characteristics of each city from 2008 to 2018. In this scenario，the RBF neural network model was built to predict and analyze the coordinated development level of the system from 2019 to 2030. The results showed that: during the study period，the coordinated level of the three northeast provinces and cities rose，and the coordinated levels of Jilin and Liaoning were higher than that of Heilongjiang Province as a whole，except that in 2018; except Qiqihar，Suihua，and Daxinganling areas，the coordination level of other cities had reached barely coordination; the spatial pattern of Heilongjiang Province had evolved into a single-planar layout in areas with high levels of coordination in the east，and low-level areas in the west; Suihua had always been a low-level area; the regional differences in Jilin Province were obvious，gradually evolved from the high level in the east to the low level in the west; a spatial pattern with dual cores were found in Changchun and Baishan; there was no significant change in the spatial pattern of Liaoning Province，which was high in the east and low in the west. The current development model has insufficient potential for improvement in coordination. It is necessary to steadily improve the quality of cities and towns，coordinate urban and rural development，and feed back agricultural production with economic construction.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2020-10-24 修回日期:2020-11-19资助项目:黑龙江省自然科学基金面上项目(G2018003); 东北农业大学学科团队项目(54940512)第一作者:李子瑞(1996—)，男，山西吕梁人，硕士研究生，研究方向为区域发展与土地利用。E-mail:15035114682@163.com通信作者:姜博(1979—)，男，吉林四平人，博士，教授，主要从事城市与区域发展研究。E-mail:jiangbo_1979@163.com