[1]周生辉,刘廷玺,段利民,等.基于时间序列的海流兔河流域降水量模拟预测分析[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(05):88-94.
　ZHOU Shenghui,LIU Tingxi,DUAN Limin,et al.Simulation and Prediction of Precipitation in Hailiutu River Basin Based on Time Series[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(05):88-94.
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基于时间序列的海流兔河流域降水量模拟预测分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 28 期数: 2021年05期 页码: 88-94 栏目: 出版日期: 2021-08-20
Title:
Simulation and Prediction of Precipitation in Hailiutu River Basin Based on Time Series
文章编号:
1005-3409(2021)05-0088-07
作者:
周生辉1,刘廷玺1,2,段利民1,2,张文瑞1,冀 如1,孙 龙1
(1.内蒙古农业大学 水利与土木建筑工程学院,呼和浩特 010018; 2.内蒙古自治区水资源保护与利用重点实验室,呼和浩特 010018)
Author(s):
ZHOU Shenghui1,LIU Tingxi1,2,DUAN Limin1,2,ZHANG Wenrui1,JI Ru1,SUN Long1
(1.Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering College,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018, China; 2.Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Water Resource Protection and Utilization,Hohhot 010018,China)
关键词:
降水量分析;  小波分析;  DEM分析;  holt-winters模型;  海流兔河流域
Keywords:
precipitation analysis;  wavelet analysis;  DEM analysis;  Holt-Winters model;  Hailiutu River Basin
分类号:
P426.61+4
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
基于1959—2019年海流兔河流域周边的鄂托克旗站、横山站和榆林站的降水量资料,采用小波分析、DEM分析,holt-winters模型讨论了该区域的降水量周期变化特征及未来趋势预测,并通过泰森多边形法加权,对海流兔河流域的降水量进行了模拟预测分析,明晰了以流域为单位的降水量变化规律及未来降水量演变趋势。结果表明:夏秋季降水集中的海流兔河流域在1959—2019年的61年期间内,干湿周期变化以6年和12年为主,其中未来2～3 a的短期降水量展望呈下降趋势,未来6～12 a以上的长期降水量趋势呈显著增加态势; 通过holt-winters模型预测了未来12 a的降水量变化趋势,其预测值的平均相对误差为22.28%,预测多年平均降水量为491.6mm,流域整体降水量预测值呈波动上升态势。该研究可为以流域为单位的水土保持及煤水协调水文模拟提供降水方面的指导。
Abstract:
Based on the precipitation data of Etuoke Banner Station,Hengshan Station and Yulin Station around Hailiutu River Basin from 1959 to 2019,wavelet analysis,DEM analysis,and Holt-Winters model were used to discuss the periodic changes of precipitation in this region and the future trend of prediction. The precipitation in the Hailiutu River Basin was simulated and predicted by using Thiessen polygon weight method. The variation law of precipitation and the trend of precipitation evolution in the future were clarified. The results show that the wet and dry cycles were mainly 6 years and 12 years during the 61 years period from 1959 to 2019 in the Hailiutu River Basin where summer and autumn precipitation were concentrated; the short-term precipitation in the next 2～3 years shows a downward trend,while the long-term precipitation in the next 6～12 years or more shows the significant increase trend. The Holt-Winters model was used to predict the change trend of precipitation in the next 12 years. The average relative error of the predicted value is 22.28%,and the average annual precipitation is 491.6 mm. The overall predicted value of precipitation in the basin shows a fluctuating upward trend. This study can provide guidance for soil and water conservation and hydrological simulation of coal-water coordination on a watershed basis.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2020-09-14 修回日期:2020-10-26
资助项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0406400); 教育部创新团队发展计划(IRT-17R60); 科技部重点领域科技创新团队(2015RA4013); 内蒙古自治区草原英才产业创新创业人才团队; 内蒙古农业大学寒旱区水资源利用创新团队(NDTD2010-6)
第一作者:周生辉(1996—),男,甘肃武威人,硕士研究生,主要从事水文地质及水文循环方面的研究。E-mail:3035452884@qq.com
通信作者:刘廷玺(1966—),男,内蒙古赤峰人,教授,博导,博士,主要从事干旱区生态水文方面的研究。E-mail:txliu1966@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 2021-08-20