[1]韩冬冬,朱仲元,宋小园,等.土地覆被和气候变化对锡林河流域径流量的影响[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(02):153-160.
　HAN Dongdong,ZHU Zhongyuan,SONG Xiaoyuan,et al.Effects of Land Cover and Climate Change on Runoff in Xilinhe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(02):153-160.
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土地覆被和气候变化对锡林河流域径流量的影响

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 26 期数: 2019年02期 页码: 153-160 栏目: 出版日期: 2019-04-28
Title:
Effects of Land Cover and Climate Change on Runoff in Xilinhe River Basin
作者:
韩冬冬1, 朱仲元1, 宋小园2, 郝祥云1, 刘丹丹1, 王慧敏1, 王飞1
1. 内蒙古农业大学 水利与土木建筑工程学院, 呼和浩特 010018;
2. 临沂大学 土木工程与建筑学院, 临沂 276000
Author(s):
HAN Dongdong1, ZHU Zhongyuan1, SONG Xiaoyuan2, HAO Xiangyun1, LIU Dandan1, WANG Huimin1, WANG Fei1
1. College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agriculture University, Hohhot 010018, China;
2. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Linyi University, Linyi, Shandong 276000, China
关键词:
SWAT模型; 土地利用/覆被; 气候变化; 极端土地利用; CMIP5气候模式; 锡林河流域
Keywords:
SWAT model; land use/coverage; climate change; extreme land use; CMIP5 climate model; Xilinhe River Basin
分类号:
F301.2;P467;P333
摘要:
土地覆被和气候变化是影响流域水资源宏观调控以及合理规划的两个主要因素，以锡林河流域为研究区，借助锡林浩特及周边4个国家气象站点，通过设定情景模式与SWAT模型相结合的方法分别对其进行了分析研究。通过极端土地利用法对研究区内土地利用/覆被设定不同情景模式，研究了土地利用/覆被变化对径流量的影响，另外采用最新的气候模式CMIP5的两种RCP排放情景RCP4.5和RCP8.5，预测了未来气温、降水、径流的变化情形。结果表明：土地变化对径流量的年际变化影响较弱，但对于汛期径流量影响显著；研究区径流量对气候表现敏感程度非常显著，未来最低、最高气温均表现出增温趋势且未来降水、径流变化趋势基本保持一致，呈增长趋势。
Abstract:
Land cover and climate change are two main factors that affect the macro-control and reasonable planning of water resources in the river basin. Xilinhe River Basin was used as a research area, and Xilinhot and its four national meteorological stations were used to set the scenario model and SWAT model. The combined method was used to analyze and study separately. Through the extreme land use method, different scenarios for land use/coverage in the study area were set up to study the impact of land use/climate change on the runoff. In addition, the latest two RCP emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of climate model CMIP5 were used to predict future changes in temperature, precipitation, and runoff. The following research results are obtained. Land change had weaker impact on inter-annual change of runoff, but it had significant impact on runoff during flood season; runoff in the study area was very sensitive to climate change, and future minimum and maximum temperatures show warming trends. The future trends of precipitation and runoff remain basically the same, showing the increasing trend.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2018-04-13;改回日期:2018-05-14。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（51669018，51779116）
作者简介:韩冬冬(1993-),男,内蒙古赤峰人,硕士研究生,研究方向为干旱区水资源可持续利用与规划。E-mail:873366989@qq.com
通讯作者:朱仲元(1956-),男,内蒙古乌兰察布人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水文与水资源与草原生态研究。E-mail:731011410@qq.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01