LIU Weilin,XIONG Hanlin,LIU Lina,et al.Estimate of the Climate Change in Ganjiang River Basin Using SDSM Method and CMIP5[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(02):145-152.
基于CMIP5模式和SDSM的赣江流域未来气候变化情景预估
- Title:
- Estimate of the Climate Change in Ganjiang River Basin Using SDSM Method and CMIP5
- Keywords:
- climate change; SDSM; Ganjiang River Basin; temperature; precipitation
- 分类号:
- P467
- 摘要:
- 赣江流域未来气候变化预估，对于了解该流域未来水资源的变化、指导流域防洪抗旱和水资源的合理开发利用具有重要意义。为预估该流域未来气候变化，利用1961—2005年赣江流域6个气象站数据、NCEP再分析数据并选择了CMIP5中CanESM2模式下3种排放情景RCP2.6，RCP4.5，RCP8.5，采用SDSM模型研究了赣江流域未来气候变化。结果表明：（1）赣江流域未来温度和降水总体均呈上升趋势。（2）在RCP2.6，RCP4.5，RCP8.5这3种排放情景下赣江流域未来最高气温分别增加1.8，2.1，2.8℃；未来最低气温分别增加1，1.2，1.9℃；未来平均气温分别增加1.5，1.6，2.3℃；3种排放情景下未来温度空间分布都是南高北低，西高东低，并在南北方向呈带状和环状分布。（3）在未来3个时期（2020s，2050s，2080s）、3种排放情景下赣江流域气温呈上升趋势，且6月份增幅最大，2月份增幅最小。（4）在未来3个时期、3种排放情景下，赣江流域未来降水均呈增加的趋势；5—10月降水量均呈现下降趋势，1—4月、11—12月降水量呈现增加趋势；3种情景下的未来降水空间分布基本呈南低北高，在南北方向呈递增趋势。对赣江流域气候要素模拟与预估表明，赣江流域未来气候变化存在降水增加及极端天气事件发生的危险，分析结果可为赣江流域气候变化的水文响应及气候变化的适应性研究提供科学依据。
- Abstract:
- Estimating future climate change of Ganjiang River can provide important guidance for flood control, drought relief, development and utilization of water resources in the basin. Based on the meteorological data in Ganjiang River Basin from 1961 to 2005 and NCEP reanalysis data, SDSM statistical downscaling model has been established. Future precipitation and temperature in the Ganjiang River Basin were predicted by atmospheric circulation factors coming from CMIP5 experiments: RCP2.6 (low emission of greenhouse gases) the RCP8.5 (highest emission of greenhouse gases) and RCP4.5 (median emission of greenhouse gases) forcing pathways under CanESM2. Finally, the characteristics of temporal and spatial patterns of future precipitation and temperature in the basin were analyzed. The results show that: (1) the temperature and precipitation of Ganjiang River Basin will present the rising trend in general in the future; (2) under the three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the maximum temperature in the Ganjiang River Basin will increase by 1.8℃ , 2.1℃ and 2.8℃, respectively，and the minimum air temperature will increase by 1, 1.2 and 1.9℃, respectively, in the future, and the future average temperature will increase by 1.5, 1.6 and 2.3℃, respectively; (3) in the next three periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) and three emission scenarios, the temperature of the Ganjiang River Basin will rise, and the largest increase will occur in June, the smallest increase will occur in February; (4) in the next three periods and three emission scenarios, the future precipitation in the Ganjiang River Basin will increase, and the precipitation from May to October will present the downward trend, and the precipitation form January to April, November and December will present the increasing trend. The results can provide the scientific basis for the study of the hydrological response of the climate change and the adaptability of the climate change in the Ganjiang River Basin.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2018-04-11;改回日期:2018-05-28。
基金项目:江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目（GJJ170980）；江西省科技厅青年资助项目（20132BAB213025）；国家自然科学青年基金（51309130）；江西省优势科技创新团队建设计划项目（20171BCB24012）；江西省水工程安全与资源高效利用工程中心开放基金课题（OF201610）；江西省大学生创新创业教育计划项目（201411319019）
作者简介:刘卫林(1978-),男,江西新余人,副教授,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:weilin_liu@nit.edu.cn