ZHENG Linfeng,LI Zhanbin,LI Peng,et al.Relationship Between Landscape Pattern Simulation and Social Economic Response in Danjiang Mountain Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(01):338-343.
丹江土石山区景观格局模拟与社会经济响应关系
- Title:
- Relationship Between Landscape Pattern Simulation and Social Economic Response in Danjiang Mountain Area
- 关键词:
- 土地利用; 景观格局; CA-Markov模型; 经济; 丹江流域
- Keywords:
- land use; landscape pattern; CA-Markov model; economy; Danjiang Basin
- 分类号:
- P962;P963
- 摘要:
- 以丹江流域陕西省段为研究对象，采用GIS，IDRISI和Fragstats平台与系列经济数据，分析了丹江流域土地的数量变化及转移情况，建立了景观格局和经济指标的模型，模拟出2020年、2030年的景观格局，并通过模型计算相应年份经济数据。结果表明：（1）该流域的优势景观为草地，1980-2010年草地面积减少最大为46.65 km2，林地增加最多为50.42 km2；与2010年相比，2030年的林地和城镇工矿用地会进一步增加，草地大幅度减少（90.84 km2）；（2）研究区整体多样性增加，稳定性降低。草地、林地和城镇用地都趋于规则，更加聚集，高连通；（3）景观指数DIVISION，IJI，LPI，SHDI与经济有显著关系，其中DIVISION，SHDI与经济呈负相关，而IJI，LPI与经济呈正相关；（4）2010-2020年是经济增速明显，除人口外增幅80%~188%；2020-2030年增幅降低，保持在30%以上，但人口相比2020年开始降低。
- Abstract:
- Section of Danjiang River Basin in Shaanxi Province was selected as the research object, using GIS, IDRISI and Fragstats platform and a series of economic data, we quantitatively analyze the changes of land transfer in Danjiang River Basin, established the landscape pattern and economic index model, and simulated the landscape pattern in 2020 and 2030 and calculated the corresponding year economic data by using the model. The results showed that:(1) the basin landscape for grassland, grassland area decreased from 1980-2010 to a maximum of 46.65 km2, forest increased up to 50.42 km2; and forest and urban industrial land will further increase, and the grassland reduced (90.84 km2) in 2030 compared to those in 2010; (2) the overall diversity of the study area increased and the stability reduced; grassland, forest and urban tended to be regular, more aggregated and highly connected; (3) the landscape indexes, DIVISION, IJI, LPI and SHDI, have a significant relationship with the economy, in which DIVISION and SHDI are negatively related to the economy, while IJI and LPI are positively related to the economy; (4) the economic growth rate was obvious, except the growth rate outside the population is 80%~188% in 2010-2020. The growth rate of 2020-2030 will decrease by over 30%, but the population will begin to decrease compared with that in 2020.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2018-1-18;改回日期:2018-3-14。
基金项目:陕西省水利科技计划项目（2017slkj-21）；陕西省水权置换的机制与策略研究；国家自然科学基金（41401316）
作者简介:郑淋峰(1992-),男,四川阆中人,硕士研究生,主要从事水土保持与土地利用/覆被变化方面研究。E-mail:linfengz666@foxmail.com
通讯作者:李占斌(1962-),男,河南南阳人,工学博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事土壤侵蚀与水土保持方面研究。E-mail:zhanbinli@126.com