LIANG Feng,LIU Dandan,XU Hongmei,et al.Comparison of Drought Variation in Northeast China from 1961 to 2009 by Using Three Drought Index Datasets[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(01):183-189.
不同干旱指数集对1961-2009年东北地区干旱描述的比较
- Title:
- Comparison of Drought Variation in Northeast China from 1961 to 2009 by Using Three Drought Index Datasets
- 分类号:
- P462.3
- 摘要:
- 利用标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI_TH，SPEI_PM）和自适应帕尔默干旱指数（scPDSI_PM）数据集，辅以气候倾向率、M-K统计检验方法，对比分析了1961—2009年东北地区干旱时空变化特征，并对各指数集描述的东北地区典型干旱年与实况进行了比较。结果表明：1961—2009年东北地区总体表现出变干的趋势，其中SPEI_TH显示的主要干旱时段在2000年以后，而SPEI_PM和scPDSI_PM都检测到1980年前后东北地区也处于一个较为明显的干期。SPEI_TH和SPEI_PM显示东北地区大部多年平均的干旱发生频率介于28%～38%之间，而scPDSI_PM给出的东北大部地区干旱频率在11%～58%之间。研究显示，2000年以后重旱和特旱频次的增加较快，这也导致重旱和特旱在各类干旱中所占的比重显著提高。1961—2009年东北地区四季干旱强度均有不同程度的加强，其中SPEI_TH的四季干旱强度变化均通过了0.05水平的显著性检验，而SPEI_PM描述的各季干旱加强趋势均不显著，scPDSI_PM只检测到秋旱强度变化是显著的。研究表明，SPEI_TH和scPDSI_PM指数集对东北地区典型干旱年的描述能力要好于SPEI_PM。
- Abstract:
- Using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index datasets SPEI_TH (based on meteorological station data), SPEI_PM (based on CRU TS3.22 data)) and self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index dataset scPDSI_PM (based on CRU TS3.10.01 data)), the temporal and spatial characteristics of drought in northeast China from 1961 to 2009 were analyzed. It was found that drought trend was obvious from 1961 to 2009, especially in the early 1960s to early 1980s. SPEI_TH and SPEI_PM showed that annual average frequency of drought ranged from 28% to 38% in most areas of the northeast China, but scPDSI_PM indicated that the drought frequency varied between 11% and 58%. SPEI_TH and scPDSI_PM had significant decreasing trend in most areas of northeast China, while the obvious decreasing tendency of SPEI_PM was only in eastern and southern parts of northeast China. It also could be seen that the severe and extreme drought frequencies were increasing more rapidly after 2000 than any other periods. So the proportion of severe and extreme drought was rising in different grades of drought after 2000. The drought intensity was strengthening with different levels in four seasons of northeast China. Drought intensity of SPEI_TH passed the significant test at level of 0.05 in the four seasons. But for scPDSI_PM, change of drought intensity only in autumn was obvious. This study shows that SPEI_TH and scPDSI_PM have better ability than SPEI_PM in terms of describing typical drought year for northeast China. In order to identify the different time scales and intensity drought, we should do more work for the evaluation and comparison of drought indexes.
参考文献/References:
[1] Dai A, Trenberth K E, Karl T R. Global variations in droughts and wet spells:1900-1995[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1998,25(17):3367-3370.
[2] Dai A. Drought under global warming:A review[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climate Change, 2011,2(1):45-65.
[3] Cook B I, Smerdon J E, Seager R, et al. Global warming and 21st century drying[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2014,43(9/10):2607-2627.
[4] 马柱国.我国北方干湿演变规律及其与区域增暖的可能联系[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(5):1011-1018.
[5] 马柱国,符淙斌.中国干旱和半干旱带的10年际演变特征[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):519-525.
[6] 马柱国,符淙斌.1951-2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实[J].科学通报,2006,51(20):2429-2439.
[7] 马柱国,任小波.1951-2006年中国区域干旱化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(4):195-201.
[8] 符淙斌,马柱国.全球变化与区域干旱化[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):752-760.
[9] 叶敏,钱忠华,吴永萍.中国旱涝时空分布特征分析[J].物理学报,2013,62(13):1-13.
[10] 张强,姚玉璧,李耀辉,等.中国西北地区干旱气象灾害监测预警与减灾技术研究进展及其展望[J].地球科学进展,2015,30(2):196-213.
[11] 祁添垚,张强,孙鹏,等.气候暖化对中国洪旱极端事件演变趋势影响研究[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(3):143-152.
[12] 王林,陈文.标准化降水蒸散指数在中国干旱监测的适用性分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(2):423-431.
[13] 李柏贞,周广胜.干旱指标研究进展[J].生态学报,2014,34(5):1043-1052.
[14] 刘宪锋,朱秀芳,潘耀忠,等.农业干旱监测研究进展与展望[J].地理学报,2015,70(11):1835-1848.
[15] 王兆礼,李军,黄泽勤,等.基于改进帕默尔干旱指数的中国气象干旱时空演变分析[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(2):161-168.
[16] Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[17] Schrier G, Barichivich J, Briffa K R, et al. A scPDSI-based global data set of dry and wet spells for 1901-2009[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 2013,118(10):4025-4048.
[18] 周丹,张勃,罗静,等.基于SPEI的华北地区近50年干旱发生强度的特征及成因分析[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(4):192-202.
[19] 张巧凤,刘桂香,于红博,等.基于标准化降水指数的锡林郭勒盟干旱特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(5):119-128.
[20] 孙滨峰,赵红,王效科.基于标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI)的东北干旱时空特征[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(1):22-28.
[21] 马建勇,许吟隆.东北地区作物生长季干旱时空分布特征及其环流背景[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(1):81-87.
[22] New M, Hulme M, Jones P. Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part Ⅱ:Development of 1901-96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate[J]. Journal of Climate, 2000,13(13):2217-2238.
[23] 闻新宇,王绍武,朱锦红,等.英国CRU高分辨率格点资料揭示的20世纪中国气候变化[J].大气科学,2006,30(5):894-904.
[24] 中国气象局.中国气象气象干旱图集(1956-2009年)[M].北京:气象出版社,2010.
相似文献/References:
[1]朱邦耀,李秀霞,刘春燕,等.东北腹地城镇城市化支撑体系研究——以吉林省四平市为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):232.
ZHU Bang-yao,LI Xiu-xia,LIU Chun-yan,et al.Study of the Urbanization Supporting System in the Hinterland of Cities and Towns in Northeast China-A Case Study in Siping, Jilin Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):232.
[2]范昊明,王铁良,蔡强国,等.东北地区土壤侵蚀分异特征与分区治理模式研究[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(02):69.
FAN Hao-ming,WANG Tie-liang,CAI Qiang-guo,et al.Study on the Zonation Differentiation of Soil Erosion and the Model of Soil and Water Conservation in Northeast China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(01):69.
[3]张维生,刘春艳,李秀霞.东北地区环境保育与环境补偿问题研究[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(02):252.
ZHANG Wei-sheng,LIU Chun-yan,LI Xiu-xia.Research on Environmental Conservation and Environmental Compensation of Northeast China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(01):252.
[4]李晓燕,赵广敏,李宝毅.我国东北地区土地资源变化态势分析[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(05):68.
LI Xiao-yan,ZHAO Guang-min,LI Bao-yi.Analysis of Changing Situation of Land Resources in Northeast China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(01):68.
[5]焦剑.东北地区土壤侵蚀空间变化特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(03):1.
JIAO Jian.Study on Spatial Variation of Soil Erosion in Northeastern China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(01):1.
[6]刘丹丹,梁丰,王婉昭,等.基于GPCC数据的1901-2010年东北地区降水时空变化[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(02):124.
LIU Dandan,LIANG Feng,WANG Wanzhao,et al.Spatial and Temporal Variations of Precipitation in Northeast China from 1901 to 2010 Based on GPCC Data[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(01):124.
[7]梁丰,刘丹丹,王婉昭,等.1961-2013年东北地区夏季降水变化趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(05):67.
LIANG Feng,LIU Dandan,WANG Wanzhao,et al.Analysis on the Trend of Variation of Summer Precipitation in Northeast China During the Period from 1961 to 2013[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(01):67.
[8]张铁楠,许为政,魏湜,等.基于WOFOST模型的东北地区春小麦水分平衡模拟与验证[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(04):45.
ZHANG Tienan,XU Weizheng,WEI Shi,et al.Simulation and Verification of Spring Wheat Water Balance in Northeast Region Based on WOFOST Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(01):45.
[9]张琳,薛冰,鹿晨昱,等.基于AHP与GIS的城市可持续性测度与空间比较研究——以东北地区35市(州)为例[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(02):86.
ZHANG Lin,XUE Bing,LU Chen-yu,et al.Study on the Spatial Comparison and Measurement of Urban Sustainability Based on AHP & GIS Approach—A Case of 35 Municipalities in Northeast China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(01):86.
[10]李晶,付驰,张铁楠,等.基于AquaCrop模型的东北春麦区小麦冠层生长模拟研究[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(06):106.
LI Jing,FU Chi,ZHANG Tie-nan,et al.Study on the Simulation of the Canopy Growth of Spring Wheat in the Northeast Based on the AquaCrop Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(01):106.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2017-3-20;改回日期:2017-4-11。
基金项目:辽宁省气象局项目（2015SXI01）；朝阳市气象局项目（CY201503，CY201609）
作者简介:梁丰(1987-),男,辽宁喀左人,工程师,硕士,研究方向为气候变化与气候统计。E-mail:she3she3@163.com