[1]蔡新玲,蔡依晅,叶殿秀,等.渭河流域降雨结构时空演变特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(06):370-375.
　CAI Xinling,CAI Yixuan,YE Dianxiu,et al.Spatiotemporal Variability Characteristics of Precipitation Pattern in Weihe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):370-375.
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渭河流域降雨结构时空演变特征

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 24 期数: 2017年06期 页码: 370-375 栏目: 出版日期: 2017-11-24
Title:
Spatiotemporal Variability Characteristics of Precipitation Pattern in Weihe River Basin
作者:
蔡新玲1, 蔡依晅2, 叶殿秀3, 乔秋文4, 路岑之2, 赵晓萌1, 李茜1
1. 陕西省气候中心, 西安 710014;
2. 西安市周至县水务局, 陕西 周至 710400;
3. 国家气候中心, 北京 100081;
4. 国家电网西北电力调控分中心, 西安 710004
Author(s):
CAI Xinling1, CAI Yixuan2, YE Dianxiu3, QIAO Qiuwen4, LU Cenzhi2, ZHAO Xiaomeng1, LI Qian1
1. Shaanxi Provincial Climate Center, Xi’an 710014, China;
2. Zhouzhi county Water Authority, Xi’an 710400, China;
3. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
4. Northwest Electric Power Dispatching and Control Sub-center of State Grig, Xi’an 710048, China
关键词:
渭河流域; 降水历时; 降水等级
Keywords:
Weihe River Basin; precipitation duration; precipitation grades
分类号:
P426.62+3
摘要:
为研究气候变化背景下渭河流域降水结构的时空变化，利用渭河流域71个气象站1981-2012年汛期（5-9月）逐时降水资料，选取降水发生率和降水贡献率两个指标，结合线性倾向率和非参数Mann-Kendall检验法探讨了流域降水结构的变化趋势及不同降水历时和不同降水等级的空间变化特征。结果表明：（1）渭河流域各历时降水发生率随历时增加呈指数形式快速递减，降水贡献率随历时增长先快速增大，后波动减小。流域上游短历时降水发生率和贡献率较高，而流域中下游长历时降水发生率和贡献率较高。（2）渭河流域1~6 h的短历时和48 h以上长历时降水发生率和贡献率均表现为减小趋势，7~24 h历时降水发生率和贡献率为增加趋势，这种变化趋势在流域的中下游更加显著。（3）渭河流域降水发生率随降水等级的增加呈指数下降，小雨发生率最高，而暴雨的发生率最低。比较而言，流域上游小雨和中雨的发生率和贡献率较高，而流域中下游大雨和暴雨发生率和贡献率较高，特别是在渭河干流，暴雨贡献率在25%以上。（4）渭河流域小雨级别的降水事件发生率和贡献率均表现为显著的下降趋势，而暴雨级别降水发生率和贡献率表现为增加趋势，这种变化趋势将可能使流域防洪形势趋于严峻。
Abstract:
In order to study the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation pattern in Weihe River Basin under the background of climate change, the change trend of precipitation pattern and the spatial variation characteristics of different precipitation durations and different precipitation grades were discussed by using the incidence rate, contribution rate of precipitation and the method of linear tendency rate and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. The data included hourly precipitation covering 1981-2012 in 71 meteorological stations in the Weihe River basin. The results show that:(1) the precipitation occurrence rate decreases rapidly with the increase of precipitation time; the contribution rate of precipitation increases rapidly with the increase of precipitation time, and then decreases in Weihe River Basin; the short duration precipitation has a high occurrence rate and the contribution rate in the upper reaches of the river basin, and the duration precipitation occurrence rate and contribution rate are higher in the middle and lower reaches of the river basin; (2) the long duration precipitation rate and contribution rate show the decreasing trend from 1 to 6 h of short duration and more than 48 hours in Weihe River Basin, and the increasing trend in 7 to 24 h, This trend is more significant in the middle and lower reaches of the basin; (3) the precipitation rate decreases exponentially with the increase of precipitation grades, the occurrence rate of sprinkle is the highest, and the rainstorm is the lowest in Weihe River Basin; the occurrence rate and contribution rate of sprinkle and moderate rain are higher in upstream, and heavy rain and rainstorm are higher in the middle and lower basin, especially in the mainstream of Weihe River, the rainstorm contribution rate is more than 25%; (4) the occurrence rate and contribution rate of sprinkle show a significant downward trend and the rainstorm performs an increasing trend in Weihe River Basin, this trend will likely make the watershed flood control situation tends severe.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2016-06-12;改回日期:2016-09-28。
基金项目:陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目“基于相似理论的渭河致洪秋雨短期气候预测方法研究”（2012JM5012）；“陕西省环境气象影响评估及霾预测研究”（2014JM2-4038）；陕西省社发攻关项目“陕西气象干旱事件监测预警及评估技术研究”（2016SF-419）
作者简介:蔡新玲(1969-),女,陕西周至人,高级工程师,主要从事气候变化研究工作。E-mail:caixinling@126.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01