LUO Nana,Batur·Bake,WU Yanfeng.Correlation Analysis of Potential Evapotranspiration and Key Climatic Factors in Shihezi City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(05):251-255,260.
石河子地区参考作物蒸散量变化特征及气候因子的定量分析
- Title:
- Correlation Analysis of Potential Evapotranspiration and Key Climatic Factors in Shihezi City
- 关键词:
- 参考作物蒸散量; Penman-Monteith; 敏感分析; 贡献分析
- Keywords:
- reference crop evapotranspiration; Penman-Monteith; sensitivity analysis; contribution analysis
- 分类号:
- S161.4;S311
- 摘要:
- 基于石河子地区1961—2012年4个气象站数据，采用FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith模型计算了参考作物蒸散量（ET0），分析了ET0时间变化特征及其对气象因子的敏感性，并结合各气象要素的多年相对变化定量分析了气象因子对ET0的贡献。结果表明：近52年来，石河子地区平均ET0以1.19 mm/a的趋势增加，2004年为突变年，并存在27 a左右的周期。ET0变化对各气象要素的敏感性以及气象因子对ET0变化的贡献有所不同，其中，平均气温的贡献率较小，但其敏感系数最高，对ET0变化的贡献是最大，使平均气温成为ET0变化贡献最大的气象因素。突变后最高气温和最低气温的贡献率较大，但其敏感系数较低，平均气温为主导因子明显上升。
- Abstract:
- Based on data obtained from four meteorological stations during the period from 1961 to 2012 in Shihezi City, the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was calculated using Penman-Monteith model recommended by FAO. Then, the contribution of meteorological factors to ET0 was investigated by sensitive analysis and contribution analysis. The results showed that average of ET0 presented increasing trend (1.19 mm/a) during the past 52 years and mutated in 2004 in Shihezi City. The meteorological factors have different sensitivity coefficients and contribution rates to variability of ET0. Among which, the contribution rate of average temperature is low, but sensitivity coefficients are the highest. Change in the average temperature becomes the largest contribution to ET0. The sensitivity coefficients and contribution rate presented some differences before and after the mutation of meteorological factors. Contributions of the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature are relatively great after mutations, but the sensitivity coefficients are low, the average temperature as the leading factor increased significantly. The average temperature is the driving force of the variability of ET0, especially more significant after mutation.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2015-11-03;改回日期:2015-11-16。
基金项目:国家国际科技合作计划项目（2010DFA92720-13）；2014年度新疆研究生科研创新项目（XJGRI2014079）；新疆维吾尔自治区土壤学重点学科
作者简介:罗那那(1989-),女,甘肃天水人,硕士研究生,研究方向为干旱区生态与环境。E-mail:luonan27@163.com
通讯作者:巴特尔·巴克(1973-),男(维吾尔族),新疆莎车县人,博士,教授,主要从事干旱区生态与环境研究。E-mail:bateerbake@163.com