[1]任建成,巩在武,郑宝枝.基于SPI的近30年黄河三角洲地区旱涝时空特征[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(01):268-271,277.
　REN Jiancheng,GONG Zaiwu,ZHENG Baozhi.Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought/Flood in the Yellow River Delta Based on SPI in Recent 30 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(01):268-271,277.
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基于SPI的近30年黄河三角洲地区旱涝时空特征

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 23 期数: 2016年01期 页码: 268-271,277 栏目: 出版日期: 2016-02-28
Title:
Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought/Flood in the Yellow River Delta Based on SPI in Recent 30 Years
作者:
任建成1,2, 巩在武1, 郑宝枝2
1. 南京信息工程大学 公共管理学院, 南京 210044;
2. 滨州市气象局, 山东 滨州 256600
Author(s):
REN Jiancheng1,2, GONG Zaiwu1, ZHENG Baozhi2
1. School of Public Administration, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. Binzhou Meteorological Bureau, Binzhou, Shandong 256600, China
关键词:
旱涝; 时空特征; 标准化降水指数(SPI); 黄河三角洲
Keywords:
drought/flood; spatiotemporal characteristics; standardized precipitation index (SPI); Yellow River Delta
分类号:
P426.61
摘要:
根据1981—2010年黄河三角洲地区11个气象观测站逐月降水资料，采用标准化降水指数（SPI），分析了该地区的旱涝时空变化特征。结果表明：黄河三角洲地区在20世纪80年代干旱较为频繁，90年代中后期和2002年以后则雨涝较为频繁，其他时段呈现出旱涝交替变化的趋势；黄河三角洲地区四季旱涝变化的特征不同，但从长期趋势来看，四季均表现出向雨涝方向发展的趋势；黄河三角洲的区域旱涝变化特征基本趋于一致，且均呈现出多雨的趋势，但旱涝变化幅度有细微差别；黄河三角洲地区在20世纪80年代末至90年代初旱涝变率最大，其次是21世纪00年代中前期，其他时间变率较小，区域变率总体上与全区保持一致。
Abstract:
Based on the monthly precipitation data in the Yellow River Delta area during the period from 1981 to 2010 and the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the spatiotemporal character of drought and flood in the area was analyzed. The results showed that drought was frequent in the Yellow River Delta in the 1980s, and the flood was frequent in later 1990s and after 2002, a trend of alternating droughts and floods presented in the other periods; with regard to the characteristics of the 4-quarter change of drought and waterlogging in the Yellow River Delta area, from the long-term trend, the 4-quarter showed the trend to the development of flood; drought and flood change characteristics of the Yellow River Delta were basically the same, and showed the rainy trend, but there were subtle differences in changes of drought and flood; the greatest variation of flood and drought was observed in the Yellow River Delta in early 1990s and in the later 1980s, followed by the early 2000s, rate of change was small in the rest periods, the change rate of overall and regional change rate were consistent in general.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2015-08-14;改回日期:2015-08-25。
基金项目:中国教师发展基金会校本科研专项基金资助项目“校本科研引领和促进基础教育质量提升的研究”（FHB110083）
作者简介:任建成(1984-),男,山东潍坊人,硕士研究生,工程师,主要从事中短期预报、人工影响天气研究。E-mail:19129512@qq.com
通讯作者:巩在武(1975-),男,山东临沂人,博士后,教授,主要从事模糊决策理论、灰色系统理论研究。E-mail:zwgong26@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01