HE Yi,YANG Taibao,CHEN Jie,et al.Long-term Trend of Temperature, Precipitation and Relative Humidity in the Northern and Southern Regions of the Xinjiang from 1955 to 2012[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(02):269-277.
1955-2012年南北疆气温、降水及相对湿度趋势分析
- Title:
- Long-term Trend of Temperature, Precipitation and Relative Humidity in the Northern and Southern Regions of the Xinjiang from 1955 to 2012
- 关键词:
- 气候变化; 温度和降水; 相对湿度; Morlet小波分析; 南北疆
- Keywords:
- climate change; temperature and precipitation; relative humidity; Morlet wavelet analysis; the northern and southern regions of Xinjiang
- 分类号:
- P467;P461.2;P333.1
- 摘要:
- 利用新疆境内的12个国家标准气象站1955—2012年温度、降水和相对湿度数据，通过气候趋势分析、气候突变分析及Morlet小波分析等方法，研究近60 a来南北疆气候变化特征。结果表明：1）近60 a来南北疆的温度总体呈上升趋势，并以北疆增温幅度较南疆明显；不同温度指标的增幅大小排列为：年平均最低温度（Tmin） > 年平均温度（Tmean） > 年平均最高温度（Tmax）；2）南北疆的年平均温度（Tmean）、年平均最高温度（Tmax）、年平均最低温度（Tmin）均有突变发生。其中，北疆的突变时间均在1987—1989年，南疆的突变时间均在1993—1994；3）南北疆年降水量的变化趋势不如气温变化明显，总体上呈增加趋势，北疆降水量变化相对稳定，而南疆呈增加趋势；南疆的年均降水量在1981年发生突变；而北疆的正反序列曲线均未超过95%置信度线，未出现突变点；4）北疆年均相对湿度总体上呈减少趋势，而南疆总体上呈增加趋势；南北疆相对湿度总体经历了“增加—减少—增加—减少”的变化。从全区来看，进入21世纪南北疆相对湿度均急剧减少；5）Morlet小波分析结果显示，南北疆的气温均存在4 a和8 a的明显周期，降水量、相对湿度均存在3 a，6 a和16 a左右的周期变化规律。
- Abstract:
- By connecting temperature, precipitation and relative humidity data of twelve national standard meteorological stations which evenly distributed in the northern and southern regions of the Xinjiang from 1955 to 2012 with the existing climatic regionalization of the Xinjiang, rate of linear tendency and Mann-Kendall test were used to illustrate the change trends and detect abrupt changes of meteorological elements, respectively. We investigated climate change of the northern and southern regions in Xinjiang in the last 60 years.The results showed that: 1) the trend of obvious temperature increase existed in these regions in the last 60 years, the warming rates were higher in the north, the warming rates were increasing in the order of annual average maximum temperature (Tmax) < annual mean temperature (Tmean) < annual average minimum temperature (Tmin); 2) the abrupt change occurred both in the northern and southern regions of the Xinjiang from 1987 to 1989 in the north, from 1993 to 1994 in the south; 3) the change trend of annual precipitation was not more significant than that of the temperature changes, the overall increasing trend change was insignificant in the southern and northern regions of Xinjiang, the annual available precipitation showed the stable change in the north, but it presented the increase trend in the south, the abrupt change of average annual rainfall in southern Xinjiang occurred in 1981, while the northern curve of the positive and negative sequence did not exceed the 95% confidence level line, the adrupt change point did not appear; 4) the annual average relative humidity decreased in the north, showing an increasing trend in the whole southern border, the annual relative humidity showed a increase-reduce-increase-reduce change pattern; with respect of the entire region, the sharp reduction of relative humidity had been observed since the 21st century; 5) results of Morlet wavelet analysis showed that in the north and south of Xinjiang, the presence of temperature changes existed the period of 4 a and 8 a, precipitation and relative humidity existed the cycle of 3 a, 6 a and 16 a around the periodic variation.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2014-05-08;改回日期:2014-07-15。
基金项目:国家自然科学资助项目“黄河上游晚更新世河流阶地和冰川演化对千年尺度气候变化的响应”（41271024）；中央高校自由探索—优秀研究生创新项目（Lzujbky-2014-274）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（Lzujbky-2012-137）；国家基础科学人才培养基金项目（J1210065）
作者简介:何毅(1987-),男,甘肃会宁人,博士生,主要研究环境演变与全球变化。E-mail:heyi11@lzu.edu.cn
通讯作者:杨太保(1962-),男,山西人平陆县人,博士,教授/博导,主要从事自然地理环境变化研究。E-mail:yangtb@lzu.edu.cn